SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Toy Story 3

This weekend Pixar delivers its annual instant classic animated feature and this year Pixar goes back to the franchise that started it all.  After enduring a very public battle between Disney and Pixar over the rights to produce the sequel, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] arrives more than a decade behind the previous installment Toy Story 2.  Thankfully, the two companies came together to the relief of everyone.  Toy Story 3 finds Woody, Buzz and the rest of Andy’s toys dropped off at a day care center where they encounter new characters while trying to find their way home.  As expected, reviews have been outstanding on the G-rated film that wraps up the trilogy.  The series has broad demographic appeal from everyone who has grown up with the beloved characters.   Opening 4028 theaters with the added boost of 3D screens, Toy Story 3 could launch to $110 million and beyond.

Last weekend’s big winner The Karate Kid [KFKID] should more than hold its own against the new competition.  Moviegoers have responded overwhelmingly positive to the remake. The Karate Kid could wear down just 30% from its debut and finish second at around $37 million.

On the other hand, the feature adaptation of The A-Team [ATEAM] was met with a lukewarm reception.  The male-oriented actioner is likely to fall close to 50% to $13 million for its second outing. 

The weekend’s other new wide release is the western Jonah Hex [JOHEX] based on a comic you have never heard of.  Josh Brolin [JBROL] stars as an avenging cowboy with supernatural powers.  Megan Fox [MEFOX] co-star in the PG-13 rated film to up its appeal with young males.  Even though the marketing campaign had a late start, Warner Bros. has advertised heavily on sporting events.  Unfortunately, advance buzz has been low and mostly negative.  Jonah Hex may have to settle for a score around $10 million from 2825 theaters.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TOYS3, KFKID, ATEAM, JOHEX, JBROL, MEFOX

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 17, 2010 @ 03:01 PM 2694 views

Recent Comments

bigbrain28
Friday, June 18 at 12:10 PM Pacific
I disagree, and predict fall-off for KFKID to be closer to 60%
Afammojoe
Friday, June 18 at 16:04 PM Pacific
jonah hex will do 25-30



I’m Still Here (IMSHR) 40000 2.00 (0.00)          Oddity (ODITY) 75000 1.77 (0.00)          Mary J. Blige (MJBLI) 1 27.25 (+0.12)          Mark Wahlberg (MWAHL) 1 49.46 (-0.16)          Chris Hemsworth (CHEMS) 20 123.60 (0.00)          Marc Maron (MMARO) 1 72.73 (0.00)          Channing Tatum (CTATU) 40 67.08 (+0.50)          Sebastian Stan (SSTAN) 6 52.03 (0.00)          Kensuke's Kingdom (KENSK) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Daniel Radcliffe (DRADC) 7 29.99 (-0.25)          Kristen Wiig (KWIIG) 1 94.23 (-0.25)          Dove Cameron (DCAME) 3 18.71 (0.00)          The Incredible Hulk vs. Wolverin (THLK2) 150000 57.93 (-0.34)          Bella Thorne (BTHOR) 6 17.14 (0.00)          The Beast Within (TBWIN) 150000 1.11 (-0.02)          Elizabeth Olsen (EOLSE) 10 176.94 (+0.50)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 6.91 (+0.61)          Bagman (BAGMA) 150000 12.91 (+4.59)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 2500 41.34 (-1.76)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 42690 41.34 (-1.76)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 107310 41.34 (-1.76)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 150000 41.34 (-1.76)          Kensuke's Kingdom (KENSK) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          It Ends With Us H$25 Call (ITEND.CA) 25000 2.57 (+0.02)          It Ends With Us - Opening Weeken (ITEND.OW) 100000 26.35 (-0.12)          Nia Long (NLONG) 20000 26.14 (+0.35)          Nia Long (NLONG) 25000 26.14 (+0.35)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 164 128.84 (+0.20)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 150000 41.34 (-1.76)          Kensuke's Kingdom (KENSK) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          I’m Still Here (IMSHR) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Eureka (EURKA) 150000 0.82 (-0.18)          Christmas Karma (CHKRM) 150000 7.33 (-0.67)          Bagman (BAGMA) 5155 12.91 (+4.59)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 150000 35.69 (+0.77)          Twisters (TWIS2) 500 198.50 (-2.16)          Bagman (BAGMA) 144845 12.91 (+4.59)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 6.91 (+0.61)          Twisters (TWIS2) 500 198.50 (-2.16)          Trap (TRAP) 49727 60.51 (-0.95)          Twisters (TWIS2) 9000 198.50 (-2.16)          Bagman (BAGMA) 83975 12.91 (+4.59)          Florence Pugh (FPUGH) 28 137.79 (-1.33)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 49727 35.69 (+0.77)          Borderlands (BRDLN) 150000 59.72 (-0.53)          Bagman (BAGMA) 64890 12.91 (+4.59)          Azrael (AZRAL) 150000 3.85 (-0.88)          Twisters (TWIS2) 5500 198.50 (-2.16)          K-Pop: Demon Hunters (KPOPD) 150000 5.48 (+0.06)          Deadpool & Wolverine (DEAD3) 150000 421.73 (+4.09)