SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Toy Story 3

This weekend Pixar delivers its annual instant classic animated feature and this year Pixar goes back to the franchise that started it all.  After enduring a very public battle between Disney and Pixar over the rights to produce the sequel, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] arrives more than a decade behind the previous installment Toy Story 2.  Thankfully, the two companies came together to the relief of everyone.  Toy Story 3 finds Woody, Buzz and the rest of Andy’s toys dropped off at a day care center where they encounter new characters while trying to find their way home.  As expected, reviews have been outstanding on the G-rated film that wraps up the trilogy.  The series has broad demographic appeal from everyone who has grown up with the beloved characters.   Opening 4028 theaters with the added boost of 3D screens, Toy Story 3 could launch to $110 million and beyond.

Last weekend’s big winner The Karate Kid [KFKID] should more than hold its own against the new competition.  Moviegoers have responded overwhelmingly positive to the remake. The Karate Kid could wear down just 30% from its debut and finish second at around $37 million.

On the other hand, the feature adaptation of The A-Team [ATEAM] was met with a lukewarm reception.  The male-oriented actioner is likely to fall close to 50% to $13 million for its second outing. 

The weekend’s other new wide release is the western Jonah Hex [JOHEX] based on a comic you have never heard of.  Josh Brolin [JBROL] stars as an avenging cowboy with supernatural powers.  Megan Fox [MEFOX] co-star in the PG-13 rated film to up its appeal with young males.  Even though the marketing campaign had a late start, Warner Bros. has advertised heavily on sporting events.  Unfortunately, advance buzz has been low and mostly negative.  Jonah Hex may have to settle for a score around $10 million from 2825 theaters.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TOYS3, KFKID, ATEAM, JOHEX, JBROL, MEFOX

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 17, 2010 @ 03:01 PM 2676 views

Recent Comments

bigbrain28
Friday, June 18 at 12:10 PM Pacific
I disagree, and predict fall-off for KFKID to be closer to 60%
Afammojoe
Friday, June 18 at 16:04 PM Pacific
jonah hex will do 25-30



Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 252 74.51 (+0.79)          Now You See Me 3 (NYSM3) 4000 27.36 (+0.43)          Aang: The Last Airbender (ATLA1) 150000 44.93 (-0.92)          Jenna Ortega (JORTE) 2000 42.13 (+0.18)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 5000 145.11 (+0.85)          Angela Bassett (ABASS) 1000 200.50 (-0.02)          The Literary Fund (BOOKS) 1000 53.41 (+0.02)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 48.28 (-8.57)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 4000 76.56 (+1.65)          Crazy Rich Asians 2: China Rich (CRAS2) 4000 51.33 (-0.30)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 48.28 (-8.57)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 48.28 (-8.57)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 4.28 (-0.10)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 150000 4.28 (-0.10)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 1000 28.53 (+0.89)          A Quiet Place: Day One (AQPL3) 8000 130.14 (-0.24)          Warfare (WARFR) 500 35.16 (-0.08)          Mickey 17 aka Mickey7 (MCKY7) 3 118.70 (-0.22)          Mickey 17 aka Mickey7 (MCKY7) 3 118.70 (-0.22)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.OW) 100000 11.14 (+0.24)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 74643 76.56 (+1.65)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 150000 9.65 (-0.01)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 3 13.99 (+0.74)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 3 13.99 (+0.74)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 13.99 (+0.74)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW.OW) 100000 11.14 (+0.24)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 5000 15.00 (0.00)          Jackie Chan (JCHAN) 34 23.48 (-0.12)          Ben Wang (BWANG) 46 25.78 (-0.26)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 105876 28.53 (+0.89)          James Gunn (JGUNN) 25000 177.49 (+0.01)          Nick Offerman (NOFFE) 180 50.51 (-0.17)          Spy x Family Code: White (SPYFM) 75000 21.28 (-0.14)          The Kingdom of the Planet of the (APES4) 143 134.08 (+0.44)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 11083 136.02 (-0.21)          Rebecca Hall (RBHAL) 25000 44.26 (-0.16)          Rumours (RUMRS) 150000 7.25 (+0.43)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 50000 48.28 (-8.57)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 75357 76.56 (+1.65)          The Running Man (TRUNM) 50000 23.59 (+0.06)          Trap (TRAP) 150000 53.20 (+0.48)          Now You See Me 3 (NYSM3) 150000 27.36 (+0.43)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 56.11 (+1.09)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 56.11 (+1.09)          Transformers One (TFCYB) 101946 76.56 (+1.65)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 299 17.59 (+0.02)          A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (ABBBJ) 139899 38.63 (-0.32)          A Special Relationship (ASREL) 299 1.03 (0.00)          Marc Webb (MWEBB) 25000 123.66 (0.00)          Trap (TRAP) 150000 53.20 (+0.48)