HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

BW's used to be seasonal

Posted by: JohnTEQP on Jun 03, 19:01 in response to Ttaaggggeerr's post i'm confused and new ...

Traditionally, there were 2 seasons for Blockbuster Warrants: Holiday, starting around Thanksgiving, and Summer, starting around Memorial Day. Strike prices would be set all at the same time, but IPO's for the individual BW's varied. One big problem with this was that strike prices were set well before movies were released, so in every season, there were inevitably strike prices set that were either ridiculously low or way too high. A movie starring HFORD that was expected to be a big hit might be trading at H$200 around the time when strike prices were set in November. But if that movie bombs in January, then it becomes obvious very quickly that it won't make the strike price for the BW, so shorting the BW is easy money. OTOH, if a movie is an unexpected hit, then everyone makes easy money going long.

Also, the delist date was the same for all BW's for that season. So the BW for a movie released in November would have the same delist date (usually early February) as a movie release in late December. This made it difficult to compare the performance of BW's. With a standard 12-week delist date, it's easier to compare how different movies performed.

 

Much as I like easy money, I much prefer this system. BW values are much more realistic, and therefore, ideally, more challenging to play. It also means that we don't waste time with meaningless BW's. You will notice, for example, that there not BW's for OMARS or BTSHP.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Dragon (DRAGO) 150000 5.54 (+1.54)          Adam Wingard (AWING) 4000 63.90 (0.00)          Adam Scott (ASCOT) 2000 26.28 (0.00)          G.I. Joe (GIJO4) 150000 40.66 (+1.60)          They Know (TKNOW) 78281 15.83 (+2.76)          Adam Sandler (ASAND) 4000 99.10 (0.00)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 1000 83.27 (-4.50)          Osgood Perkins (OPERK) 5000 54.35 (0.00)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 1000 83.27 (-4.50)          Sebastian Maniscalco (SMANI) 7006 69.04 (-0.25)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 149999 58.62 (+0.39)          Colin Farrell (CFARR) 5000 59.63 (-0.16)          G.I. Joe (GIJO4) 69513 40.66 (+1.60)          Dave Franco (DFRAN) 5000 58.84 (-0.16)          Ice Cube (ICUBE) 9999 59.87 (0.00)          Ice Cube (ICUBE) 10006 59.87 (0.00)          The Great Beyond aka Ghostwriter (ACRNS) 150000 87.44 (-0.90)          Godzilla Minus Zero (GODM2) 149999 83.89 (+6.52)          Ben Stiller (BSTIL) 6000 55.38 (-0.16)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 5000 19.54 (-1.11)          Doug Liman (DLIMA) 7000 51.16 (-0.33)          Dragon (DRAGO) 150000 5.54 (+1.54)          Dragon (DRAGO) 150000 5.54 (+1.54)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 150000 113.90 (-0.26)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 150000 113.90 (-0.26)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 20.35 (+0.05)          Zero A.D.: The Birth of Christ (BTLHM) 10000 34.70 (-0.50)          Matthew McConaughey (MMCCO) 11993 42.65 (+0.17)          Joel Kinnaman (JKINN) 1999 56.09 (0.00)          Joel Kinnaman (JKINN) 1999 56.09 (0.00)          Aaron Eckhart (AECKH) 5999 12.79 (+0.10)          Aaron Eckhart (AECKH) 7999 12.79 (+0.10)          Cory Michael Smith (CMSMI) 5000 4.22 (+0.05)          Cory Michael Smith (CMSMI) 5000 4.22 (+0.05)          Helen Hunt (HHUNT) 1999 11.49 (+0.19)          Helen Hunt (HHUNT) 1999 11.49 (+0.19)          Martin McDonagh (MAMCD) 1999 20.00 (+0.10)          Martin McDonagh (MAMCD) 10000 20.00 (+0.10)          Mouse (MOUSE) 7 0.68 (-0.01)          De Gaulle - Part I: Resistance (DEGAU) 10 0.39 (0.00)          De Gaulle - Part I: Resistance (DEGAU) 150000 0.39 (0.00)          Being Heumann (BHEUM) 7 0.10 (+0.01)          Dragon (DRAGO) 150000 5.54 (+1.54)          Giancarlo Esposito (GESPO) 3 48.73 (-0.34)          Diamond (DIAMN) 10050 5.08 (+0.05)          Bill Hader (BHADE) 3 71.25 (-1.12)          Julia Roberts (JROBE) 1999 55.63 (+0.16)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 3.09 (-0.12)          Julia Roberts (JROBE) 12999 55.63 (+0.16)          Giancarlo Esposito (GESPO) 25000 48.73 (-0.34)