HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

BW's used to be seasonal

Posted by: JohnTEQP on Jun 03, 19:01 in response to Ttaaggggeerr's post i'm confused and new ...

Traditionally, there were 2 seasons for Blockbuster Warrants: Holiday, starting around Thanksgiving, and Summer, starting around Memorial Day. Strike prices would be set all at the same time, but IPO's for the individual BW's varied. One big problem with this was that strike prices were set well before movies were released, so in every season, there were inevitably strike prices set that were either ridiculously low or way too high. A movie starring HFORD that was expected to be a big hit might be trading at H$200 around the time when strike prices were set in November. But if that movie bombs in January, then it becomes obvious very quickly that it won't make the strike price for the BW, so shorting the BW is easy money. OTOH, if a movie is an unexpected hit, then everyone makes easy money going long.

Also, the delist date was the same for all BW's for that season. So the BW for a movie released in November would have the same delist date (usually early February) as a movie release in late December. This made it difficult to compare the performance of BW's. With a standard 12-week delist date, it's easier to compare how different movies performed.

 

Much as I like easy money, I much prefer this system. BW values are much more realistic, and therefore, ideally, more challenging to play. It also means that we don't waste time with meaningless BW's. You will notice, for example, that there not BW's for OMARS or BTSHP.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 13.87 (+2.12)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 3000 66.56 (-0.15)          Wonder Woman (WOND3) 150000 42.88 (-0.46)          Beware Boiuna aka Legend of the (BOUNA) 31000 19.37 (+0.20)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 13.87 (+2.12)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 150000 102.78 (+0.26)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 31000 19.19 (-0.12)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 100000 61.65 (-0.44)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 100000 61.65 (-0.44)          White Lies (WHTLI) 1 13.87 (+2.12)          Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 50000 38.36 (+0.03)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 150000 311.09 (-2.29)          Paul Rudd (PRUDD) 25000 52.89 (-0.66)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 50000 0.62 (+0.01)          Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 50000 1.99 (+0.02)          White Lies (WHTLI) 100000 13.87 (+2.12)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 12760 233.87 (-0.13)          Scary Movie H$105M Blockbuster W (SCAR6.BW) 25000 6.14 (+1.14)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 25000 9.65 (+0.28)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 10.71 (+0.55)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 18.75 (+0.43)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 $200M Bl (PRAD2.BW) 25000 16.37 (+0.28)          Michael $285M Blockbuster Warran (MJACK.BW) 25000 18.67 (+0.14)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 12855 25.00 (0.00)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 150000 245.05 (-0.56)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 13.87 (+2.12)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 103.57 (-2.73)          Camila Mendes (CMEND) 25000 9.06 (+0.16)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 150000 61.87 (-7.89)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Young Washington (YWASH) 150000 32.73 (-1.22)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 150000 225.81 (+0.22)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 150000 61.87 (-7.89)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie H$105M Blockbuster W (SCAR6.BW) 25000 6.14 (+1.14)          La Bola Negra aka The Black Ball (LBNEG) 150000 0.77 (-0.23)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 49048 307.40 (-4.68)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 307.40 (-4.68)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 49999 103.57 (-2.73)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 6.15 (+0.02)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 49999 422.46 (-1.15)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 137145 25.00 (0.00)          Hershey (HERSH) 5455 13.39 (+0.93)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Voyagers (VOYGR) 333 1.77 (0.00)          Voyagers (VOYGR) 4545 1.77 (0.00)