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Playing & Trading Strategy

I have noticed something over the years

Posted by: ndmaster (a.k.a JonHH) on May 29, 18:25 in response to MitchC's post When To Sell Current Movies..

Movies coming up which have a lot of buzz tend to top out a couple weeks before opening, if the buzz builds too much. If buzz continues to build, it could continue to climb right up to halt. But, Flash is right, it's only fake money and adjusts are the most fun part of the game. Also, go with the trend, unless your gut is really urging you to go against it. Remember, it is all formulaic, so make sure you are estimating the opening weekend before you trade. i.e., I think SANDR will do better than others, and it's priced now for a $41.5MM opening weekend.

Another example is JURA4. The recent tracking says $100MM opening, and it's severely underpriced even now based on that estimate.





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The Sun Never Sets (TSNVS) 100000 1.97 (-0.04)          Ken Russell's The Devil (KRSTD) 150000 1.71 (-0.04)          The Sun Never Sets (TSNVS) 10000 1.97 (-0.04)          Renate Reinsve (REREI) 25000 36.23 (+22.23)          Goblin (GBLIN) 7898 22.14 (+2.14)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 37.24 (+1.75)          The Thomas Crown Affair (TTCAF) 4000 45.32 (+0.37)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Renate Reinsve (REREI) 25000 36.23 (+22.23)          Goblin (GBLIN) 9899 22.14 (+2.14)          Star Trek (TREK4) 10000 20.87 (-0.08)          Kent State (KENTS) 150000 0.94 (-0.01)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Goblin (GBLIN) 898 22.14 (+2.14)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 49409 46.87 (+1.07)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 7000 102.64 (+0.81)          Renate Reinsve (REREI) 25000 36.23 (+22.23)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 1500 60.26 (-0.96)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Renate Reinsve (REREI) 25000 36.23 (+22.23)          Kerry Condon (KCOND) 1 49.99 (+0.15)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 3000 43.99 (-1.86)          Lucky Strike (LCKYS) 150000 5.81 (-0.27)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 25000 22.39 (-0.73)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 99999 133.79 (-2.33)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 12000 27.02 (+2.64)          Gatto (GATTO) 4000 136.57 (+0.07)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 25000 22.39 (-0.73)          When We Pray (WPRAY) 150000 0.01 (0.00)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 2000 60.26 (-0.96)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 25000 22.39 (-0.73)          Losing Clementine (LCLEM) 150000 0.03 (-0.02)          Kerry Condon (KCOND) 25000 49.99 (+0.15)          Andy Samberg (ASAMB) 25000 73.96 (-0.50)          Helldivers (HELDV) 7000 100.82 (+0.12)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 27.02 (+2.64)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 9999 27.02 (+2.64)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)