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Final, detailed Nov 27 mea culpa.
Like many of us I'm sure, I often multitask while playing -- so sometimes it isn't possible to expand/respond to Board points/allegations immediately.
In a nutshell, I feel my integrity was questioned a couple of days ago & therefore would like to make a few quick points, as follows;
1) I joined this thread to concur with MattW's analysis & to back-up my earlier prediction of a H$240s delist for HGAM4, as discussed with RogerMore on the Movies Board last weekend. I have no further agenda with the MovieStock.
2) In good faith & in the spirit of predictive guesswork, I also posted a tweet stat on Nov 27 @ 17:53, alongside a projection & statement regarding box office outlook.
3) Upon reflection, although daily HGAM4 tweets totalled (from memory) about 50k at that time (& therefore had risen approx 15k over prev 2hrs IIRC), it is clear I failed to successfully juggle the variables (e.g worldwide time zones) required to project an end-of-day tweet count.
4) I suspect (although I don't claim to fully recall, as I had other commitments at the time) I compounded this inaccuracy with further human error. Specifically, I may have been looking at a slightly earlier mid-week 2014 figure of 76k (instead of the 2nd Fri 45k actual MJ1 comp), when taking comfort from the 70k projection & making a fwd-looking, 3-day statement for MJ2.
5) LGFX/Qix posts are never intended to mislead or deceive; however I sincerely apologize for any confusion related to my mistakes here.
6) In general terms, I believe an objective assessment of data provided by me subsequent to Nov 27, supports addt'l claims made on this thread & although I don't necessarily expect to overcome Anti's objections (for example), other participants, with alternative opinions, may wish to incorporate some social media futures into their own box office analysis.
Cheers!
Mockingjay 2 Nov 27, 13:35
Good analysis {nm} Nov 27, 14:18
Cheers, agree. Interesting to track real-time Twitter activity if you're into that sort of thing... Nov 27, 15:53
Actual 58,476. 6:1 pos:neg ratio. {nm} Nov 28, 00:21
Sat: 58,756, same ratio as above. Sat Nov 21: 138,140. {nm} Nov 29, 00:38
HGAM4 held better than HGAM3, and best in the series. The tweets # are not useful. Nov 30, 13:21
Depends how one interprets them. Nov 30, 20:19
You're just speculating. What point of reference are you using? {nm} Dec 01, 10:07
1) Twitter 2) Prediction Dec 01, 11:15
But you didn't compare Twitter activity of any other movies inc MJ1. Like I told you before, they're just numbers. Dec 01, 13:46
12-month old #s problematic due platform growth & MJ2's expanded w/wide release pattern. Dec 01, 14:21
Methodology + MJ1/2 comp wk prior to release. Dec 01, 19:32
Pre-release and post-release are two different things. Where's the MJ1 comp post release? Dec 02, 11:49
Hopefully my reckless, initial Fri tweet comparison won't put players off (what I consider to be) a useful tool. Dec 02, 14:39
Final, detailed Nov 27 mea culpa. Dec 03, 12:53
