HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

For wide releases, there's usually four ways to play the opening weekend and beyond (more)

Posted by: bchicken on May 08, 22:25 in response to jms2's post It’s been awhile but what’s the best way to...

The moviestocks themselves work the same way they always have - they cash out at $1 per million of gross made after 4 weekends (wide releases) or 12 weekends (limited releases).  There's just no adjust after the opening weekend any more.  So post-release it's a question of what you think the legs of the film is going to be.  I'm a pessimist, so I usually guess a film is going to end up at around 2.5 times the opening weekend and long/short accordingly.

In addition to the stock itself, now there are opening weekend derivatives for most wide releases.  Most get an opening weekend derivative the cashes out at $1 per million made opening weekend.  Bigger releases usually get a pair of call and put options, where you bet on whether you think the opening weekend gross is going to be above (call) or below (put) a certain strike price. 

For example, this weekend the Dr. Strange movie had all three derivatives.  The numbers will change a little when the official totals get reported, but based off the weekend estimates:

  • The opening weekend warrant (DRST2.OW) will cash out at $185/share.
  • The $160 call (DRST2.CA) will cash out at $25/share ($185-160).
  • The $160 put (DRST2.PU) will cash out at $0/share (since it was over 160).
If it had made only $100 million this weekend, the OW would have cashed out at $100, the call would have cashed out at $0 and the put would have cashed out at $60.

   Hope this helps!





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 5000 459.19 (-1.25)          Alexandra Daddario (ADADD) 25000 67.33 (+0.25)          Focker In-Law aka Meet the Paren (MPRN4) 150000 94.97 (+0.25)          Cole Sprouse (CSPRO) 25000 54.44 (+0.33)          Wicked: For Good (WCKD2) 150000 359.24 (-1.00)          Lena Dunham (LDUNH) 25000 34.16 (+0.12)          Trap House (TRAPH) 10500 2.16 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 341.99 (+0.02)          Now You See Me: Now You Don't (NYSM3) 14001 55.50 (-0.01)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 1 110.77 (+2.97)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 1 110.77 (+2.97)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 197.15 (-0.02)          The Running Man (TRUNM) 150000 39.75 (-0.03)          The Running Man (TRUNM) 25000 39.75 (-0.03)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 16.48 (+1.32)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 150000 24.86 (+0.71)          Ella McCay - Opening Weekend (EMCAY.OW) 100000 4.13 (-0.17)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.77 (+2.97)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 150000 14.86 (-2.01)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 74.56 (-0.41)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 150000 473.28 (+0.50)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 150000 5.12 (+1.41)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 46 296.61 (+0.25)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 16.48 (+1.32)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 150000 16.48 (+1.32)          Michael (MJACK) 150000 162.28 (+0.11)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 aka Reve (PRAD2) 150000 153.50 (+0.33)          Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 150000 20.90 (+0.59)          Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 150000 20.90 (+0.59)          Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle 2 (DSIC2) 150000 90.95 (+0.91)          Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle 2 (DSIC2) 150000 90.95 (+0.91)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.77 (+2.97)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 149999 110.77 (+2.97)          Hamnet - Opening Weekend (HAMNT.OW) 100000 3.58 (-0.17)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 150000 21.23 (-0.54)          In the Grey (NGREY) 1 15.93 (+1.32)          100 Nights of Hero (100NH) 1 7.96 (-0.02)          100 Nights of Hero (100NH) 1 7.96 (-0.02)          In the Grey (NGREY) 30000 15.93 (+1.32)          Kick 2 (KICK2) 1 1.18 (-0.02)          Kick 2 (KICK2) 1 1.18 (-0.02)          David (DAVID) 150000 76.32 (-0.36)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 1 306.15 (-1.03)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 1 110.77 (+2.97)          Anthony Hopkins (AHOPK) 20000 2.66 (-0.02)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 500 16.48 (+1.32)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 23.29 (+0.60)          Constantine 2 (CNST2) 150000 45.47 (-0.07)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 61 163.23 (-0.19)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.35 (-0.16)