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FWIW, Gold Derby (Handicapping) has The Act of Killing at 6/5, 20 Feet from Stardom at 8/5. The Square is 3rd but at a higher 15/2. So...
Any motivation of wanting The Square to win would seem almost moot if Gold Derby is right about the two heavy favorites.
ISTM the key question is how the entire Academy, in particular actors, will vote.
There was an article a while back that I referred to (not going to check it but I think it may have been on THR) suggesting the wider voter base might go for 20 Feet from Stardom. At the time, I think Gold Derby might also have had that as the favorite but here's the latest as I indicated in the thread title:
http://www.goldderby.com/handicapping/oscars-2013/best-documentary-feature.html
Hmmm. THEGUARDIAN: 'The Act Of Killing': Don't Give An OSCAR To This Snuff Movie. Feb 22, 21:46
its a hit piece. this is written by a friend of the director of the square and wants the square to win. {nm} Feb 22, 22:00
That is ironic since there is plenty of violence in The Square. {nm} Feb 22, 23:40
FWIW, Gold Derby (Handicapping) has The Act of Killing at 6/5, 20 Feet from Stardom at 8/5. The Square is 3rd but at a higher 15/2. So... Feb 23, 07:36
These mean nothing. {nm} Feb 23, 10:27
Gold Derby means nothing, not handicapping. Oscar season is full of predictions, this one is just the LA Time's version. Feb 23, 11:00
What an atrocity of an article. The Act Of Killing is the best documentary i've seen in at least this century. {nm} Feb 22, 23:30
And what was the best in the last century. {nm} Feb 22, 23:51
Could be "Shoah," or "Night and Fog," or "Medium Cool," or "Triumph of the Will," or "Hoop Dreams," or "Burden of Dreams". . . Feb 23, 10:39
Then you have not seen The Cove {nm} Feb 23, 00:52
+1. {nm} Feb 23, 00:58
The second he started using loaded terms like snuff was the second I stopped reading. {nm} Feb 23, 04:32