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New thread above -- professional handicapping actually has The Square about the same and The Act of Killing an even bigger favorite. Also...
That Gold Derby page is specifically for "handicapping". They have other pages for critics, editors, users, etc., and so I suspect they use professional oddsmaking as at least part of their input.
If they don't, perhaps they ought not call it handicapping. 
The main point is it's close to the professionals, no matter how Gold Derby determines that handicapping section.
I'm surprised you think The Square is a bigger threat than 20 Feet from Stardom. Especially if the vote between The Act of Killing and The Square is so substantially split that it's near-equal, it would seem 20 Feet from Stardom would benefit.
Hmmm. THEGUARDIAN: 'The Act Of Killing': Don't Give An OSCAR To This Snuff Movie. Feb 22, 21:46
its a hit piece. this is written by a friend of the director of the square and wants the square to win. {nm} Feb 22, 22:00
That is ironic since there is plenty of violence in The Square. {nm} Feb 22, 23:40
These mean nothing. {nm} Feb 23, 10:27
Gold Derby means nothing, not handicapping. Oscar season is full of predictions, this one is just the LA Time's version. Feb 23, 11:00
New thread above -- professional handicapping actually has The Square about the same and The Act of Killing an even bigger favorite. Also... Feb 23, 11:49
What an atrocity of an article. The Act Of Killing is the best documentary i've seen in at least this century. {nm} Feb 22, 23:30
And what was the best in the last century. {nm} Feb 22, 23:51
Could be "Shoah," or "Night and Fog," or "Medium Cool," or "Triumph of the Will," or "Hoop Dreams," or "Burden of Dreams". . . Feb 23, 10:39
Then you have not seen The Cove {nm} Feb 23, 00:52
+1. {nm} Feb 23, 00:58
The second he started using loaded terms like snuff was the second I stopped reading. {nm} Feb 23, 04:32