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I went and checked RS's accuracy for those 18 movies against the other predictors for that same set of movies.

Posted by: BaconFund on Jul 29, 09:19 in response to JDolphin's post Per RogerMore's prediction database for the last 18...

The 10 predictors I track made similarly accurate predictions for those movies, all within a band of 72%-80% accuracy for those particular films. RS with 76% was ranked 6th out of the 10 predictors I track.

So RS has been comparable recently to the other predictors. But I don't want to leave the impression that it's suddenly better than everyone else either.

RS says low 80's for Guardians. if that happens then what happens to Downey's money truck? {nm} Moviesnob Jul 28, 08:15

Why would it have any effect on Downey's money truck? Assuming they want to keep making Iron Man movies, they still need him... {nm} ~JPV~ Jul 28, 08:21

you could argue they dont need him if Guardians opens that huge in august. it'll prove the brand is the draw. {nm} Moviesnob Jul 28, 08:30

You could, but Marvel isn't going to want to give up the IM franchise and Downey is key to that. They can do both IM and GOTG {nm} ~JPV~ Jul 28, 08:45

Valid points from both of you. I lean slightly toward the "little effect for Downey" camp since Marvel should be wise enough to know ShawnMR Jul 28, 09:10

+1 {nm} Dorfman Jul 28, 10:01

until last week, the marketing was seen as a negative, cast was a risk, the concept is another space opera, and there were no reviews Moviesnob Jul 28, 11:34

from the beginning I've liked the trailer and away from this forum it seemed 50/50. I never thought it would come in lobogotti Jul 28, 12:15

Have we collectively forgotten about RS's reliability? Let wait until we have some Fandango data. {nm} Antibody Jul 28, 12:40

I haven't forgotten, nor have I assumed it's going to open in the 80's. I find that doubtful, regardless of tracking. However, I don't lobogotti Jul 28, 12:59

"if that happdns" means speculating {nm} Moviesnob Jul 28, 13:09

Per RogerMore's prediction database for the last 18 movies RS has done they are 75%, better than any else for that time period, although JDolphin Jul 28, 17:33

I went and checked RS's accuracy for those 18 movies against the other predictors for that same set of movies. BaconFund Jul 29, 09:19

Well, I guess I'm in the minority then. :) Disney's marketed this film to near perfection since day one, IMHO. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 29, 11:23

they can do both w/o Downey though. At least, thats the way I suspect marvel is thinking. I would guess hes coming back, but guardians will Moviesnob Jul 28, 11:32

The brand wouldn't be the draw it is now without Downey EdwardHavens Jul 28, 12:39

good points. there are maybe a few actors that could have had it succeed. Downey is witty and charismatic enough to not hate him for lobogotti Jul 28, 13:01

That's a Downey camp perspective. guardians opening huge gives marvel more leverage Moviesnob Jul 28, 13:12

per Forbes, he was the highest paid actor last year with $75. I think Marvel needs him more than he needs them {nm} JDolphin Jul 28, 21:30

One can equally ask why Sony and Eon pay DCRAI so damn much to play Bond when there are other options EdwardHavens Jul 29, 07:28

Thanks - anything for GSOUL? {nm} RogerMore Jul 28, 09:12

high 20's {nm} Moviesnob Jul 28, 11:37

Schwing. {nm} Was Bar Was Jul 28, 11:47

Thanks again {nm} RogerMore Jul 28, 11:49

Uh-oh. GOTG is plumetting on RT. All the way down to 96%. {nm} Bubba_Fett Jul 28, 09:46

Tailspin for sure. #BoxOfficeFail {nm} ~JPV~ Jul 28, 10:14





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