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55-60M being purely gut feeling numbers, then? Anyhow, 1M is nothing for me to get excited about. Especially when I'm not quite feeling it

Posted by: Facto on Mar 26, 00:48 in response to Mattrek's post When it opens over 55m (actually I'm expecting over 60m)...

myself... There didn't seem to be any big excitement about Dragon 2-3 days ago, no tracking has suggested such long potential and notfabio's numbers weren't all that - or did I miss something.. ?

Like I said, it may very well prove to have legs, but isn't it a tad bit late to build the massive momentum needed for 55-60M? And why compare it to Monsters vs Aliens? That one had Grrrrrrlll power BIG time. I don't see Dragon firing on all four cylinders as easily. Dragons.. ? In my book not the same pull as monsters, aliens and a girl thing the size of high rise buildings..

Anyhow, if you can make an argument to convince me, based on more than "irrational excuberance" .... I'm all ears

Gut Checks Time? Short Hot Tub Time Machine and Long How To Train Your Dragon {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:02

same no-brainer here {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:04

No brainer, even? It's already priced at the top end of all predictions so far. I'd be curious to know what you're basing this on? TIA :-) {nm} Facto Mar 26, 00:18

betting against the 3D thing, huh ? Good luck there ;-) {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:22

I'm not sure I'll bet on it at all - it's semi-pricey and seems to be priced about right. You didn't really answer my question.. ? :-) {nm} Facto Mar 26, 00:27

welll... ( just back from work ) I shorted the last two 3D films and lost a lot of money there. That and... JMT Mar 26, 08:43

Alright, fair arguments, but we are after all in the month of March... And it faces competition from both Wimpy and Alice. Facto Mar 26, 08:48

I am with you facto. It is priced way to high right now to be a long. {nm} the_noble Mar 26, 00:25

It needs to make 47.6m to break even, how is that even remotely over-priced? MVA did 59.6m last year with 800 less theaters. {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:32

59.3m* {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:33

It's priced at the top end of all tracking we've seen so far, and beyond the L.A. Times' prediction range. I'm not saying that's wrong. How Facto Mar 26, 00:35

When it opens over 55m (actually I'm expecting over 60m) and makes the long-holders 1m we will see about your argument :P {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:37

55-60M being purely gut feeling numbers, then? Anyhow, 1M is nothing for me to get excited about. Especially when I'm not quite feeling it Facto Mar 26, 00:48

Well, 60 mill only needs a 15k PTA to break even AB_Excello Mar 26, 01:06

Got that part right - it certainly isn't Alice. If it can actually muster half of Alice's PTA, I would say that's not too shabby. {nm} Facto Mar 26, 01:08

Well here's my argument: Mattrek Mar 26, 11:37

Very interesting post, thanks {nm} Facto Mar 26, 12:21

right now have HOTUB short and HTRYD long...but I'm thinking about taking my money now on HTRYD {nm} ftwangel Mar 26, 07:44

Definitely short on HOTUB. I might pass on HTRYD, or at least wait 'till it's closer to halt. I don't see much play in it. Also, when people Facto Mar 26, 00:32

We are talking about the same film that last weekend against Diary of a Wimpy Kid fell 45% right? Mattrek Mar 26, 00:36

what are whisper numbers based on? they are horrible, someone should be fired if they are predictions. {nm} Bk_Tan Mar 26, 00:52

Short HOTUB & Long HTRYD here. {nm} joeoftexas Mar 26, 03:15

Definite long for Dragons.. no more under-estimation for kids movies.. short the Tub ;-) {nm} karspov Mar 26, 03:29

Short them both... reviews aren't going to have THAT much of an effect on HTRYD with so little interest compared to prev. DWA movies secretstalker Mar 26, 03:54

I'm skittish about shorting it also. There's something to be said about the children's flick segment. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeaquel Facto Mar 26, 04:52