Playing & Trading Strategy

Stuck In A Rut.. MitchC Mar 04, 13:49

Typos MitchC Mar 04, 13:51

Play openers and play starbonds. There are often easy profits to be made on both, even close to adjust {nm} RogerMore Mar 04, 13:52

Can't be overstated, Starbonds. If you already play every day, trade on news. elchan2012 Mar 04, 16:09

Whoops above: gunds ->funds. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 04, 18:06

Yeah, sometimes a Tuesday bond adjust is several million dollars -- BAM! -- if your fully committed. {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Mar 04, 16:39

Bonds can keep your port growing, even when you make some bad investments in Moviestocks. {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Mar 05, 07:16

sir, ive been playing 2 months shy of a year, and im up to 60 million, the first few months of that year i was doing what you did, just inve horrorfanatic Mar 04, 19:51

The key to awards options is to pick one or two from runners in each category and short the rest. I made a killing off of awards options be CactusLand Mar 04, 20:44

Starbonds are by far the easiest (meaning least risk for the biggest gain) way to grow in my opinion. MattW Mar 04, 20:18

Hi MitchC. You may already do this stuff, but here's a few tips that could help... Willroast Mar 04, 21:07

With a port your size, you should be maxxing out (100K shares) of some of the opening movies... Flash Mar 05, 07:23

What's the single biggest gain you've ever seen in one day? Just curious. The most I've ever made was about 7 million. CactusLand Mar 04, 12:03

16M...thanks to the Avengers adjust :) {nm} tealfan Mar 04, 13:04

My highest day so far is 7.8M. That was a very good day for me. {nm} Quickslver99 Mar 04, 13:15

$33.8M, on the day position limits were increased from 75K to 100K. Next was $18.95M, which was the day e/one spent their HPOT8 adjust money {nm} RogerMore Mar 04, 13:25

(Oh, my mistake - AVNGR adjust day is my #2, $19.3M) {nm} RogerMore Mar 04, 13:32

05/06/12 was up $18,469,942 fake bucks and low day was -$12,034,322 {nm} DASavage Mar 04, 17:59

Will gross of the new r-rated release of anchorman 2 be included in the upcoming delist of the anch2.bw ... project Mar 03, 17:11

I checked the gross of the movie stock page and it was added there, so I'm assuming it is included in the BW {nm} JDolphin Mar 03, 21:18

Weekend Openers Freeze Time Juiced Mar 03, 07:07

There was a thread on this not too long ago, which you might be interested in reading RogerMore Mar 03, 07:27

Thanks for the Re-Direct. Good points on both sides. Still think it is too easy. Wish maybe a Sat morning compromise could be made. Juiced Mar 03, 07:32

When I first started playing, openers were frozen on Saturday mornings once numbers came out... Flash Mar 03, 09:56

query... jaymel Mar 02, 14:00

sometime between 9am and 8pm hsx time tomorrow (i.e, none of us players here really know for sure) {nm} islander Mar 02, 14:12

my guess would be after 4pm pacific with the rest of the delists {nm} JDolphin Mar 02, 17:01

Why? Do you need the cash to buy a certain set of starbonds, for a particular movie maybe? {nm} elchan2012 Mar 03, 06:55

umm jaymel Mar 03, 10:27

DELISTING NOW {nm} socby19 Mar 03, 12:03

well post awardoptions delist jaymel Mar 03, 12:46

[AWARD] Monthly Report to Shareholders AwardsFund Mar 01, 14:17

I'm impressed that you have full holdings on each award option - nice going! {nm} daveart Mar 02, 10:53

Thanks. Seemed to me to be the 'Holy Grail' of the fund. Would have been silly not to fully invest. Fingers crossed. {nm} AwardsFund Mar 02, 13:49

43/44 {nm} AwardsFund Mar 02, 23:18

and AWARD is by far the top mover today, well over 3 mil {nm} daveart Mar 03, 14:10

Thanks for the efforts! {nm} <font color="darkred"><b>Flash Dec 07, 14:05

Here's an example of how to NOT trade. Basically, I made a mistake every timebut the last trade. Embarassing.The terrible times of the Lego {nm} Willroast Mar 01, 01:01

Um, didn't mean to send that. Here's the numbers... Willroast Mar 01, 01:02

When considering that each trade cost me~200k and I was wrong on most of them.This single stock was my most terrible play ever on HSX.So far {nm} Willroast Mar 01, 01:05

Feeling the Pain all the way up here in Saskatoon - but there was a Good Run from 161.00 to 197.00. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Mar 01, 06:40

For the love of God, don't ever trade on the stock market! elchan2012 Mar 01, 16:06

Funny elchan.I actually do pretty well on the real stock market, but that is because I "sit and forget". I'd never want to be a daily trader Willroast Mar 01, 16:29

shorting an award option question theseehawk Feb 28, 09:34

in that scenario, you make $4 per share when it delists, no need to cover {nm} lapuckfan Feb 28, 09:57

No Commission on Delist either, whereas there would be Commission on COVER. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 28, 14:08

Where do these box office predictions come from? For example, why does Son of God hover around $58? Is that based upon what CactusLand Feb 27, 10:47

Price is determined by players buying/covering if they think the price is too low, or selling/shorting if they think the price is too high RogerMore Feb 27, 11:07

There have been thingys posted on the movie board for weeks about this project... RazorHawk Feb 27, 11:17

I understand getting information from sites like Hollywood reporter, but where does the "raw data'" come from? And what does {nm} CactusLand Feb 27, 12:04

*what does "MTC" stand for? {nm} CactusLand Feb 27, 12:05

MajoR Theater Chain...the name of the chain is anonymous because the person who provides the numbers works there {nm} tealfan Feb 27, 12:15

Audience surveys, and MTC = Major Theatre Chain. Here's a column I wrote a while back about tracking and how they get their data. RogerMore Feb 27, 12:15

thanks. I actually have your blog bookmarked, but I haven't had the time to read previous posts in any depth. {nm} CactusLand Feb 28, 09:14

No worries - if you want to see if there's a column on a specific topic, there's a search function {nm} RogerMore Feb 28, 13:43

Here are the results containing my regression model's predictions on BO, using HSXSanity Data from pre-release forecasts. elchan2012 Feb 25, 23:08

Wow. What happens when smart dudes get together and share #s is awesome. Thanks elchan and Mr Moore! {nm} Willroast Feb 26, 00:09

WOWZER - A Tip O' The Hat. Thanks for all of your Contributions. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 26, 04:03

Some initial thoughts... RogerMore Feb 26, 04:34

Actually, the extrapolated RS data is not all that accurate. Mean error rate for RS is 0.45 for, compared to ,,, elchan2012 Feb 26, 07:18

Here are the result of a few runs: elchan2012 Feb 26, 08:09

Interesting. It's worth noting that an average error of 25% is still about as good as the best predictors over a season of EAP God. RogerMore Feb 26, 08:37

I was only kidding, they are all bad forecasters, but when combining their information, the regression comes up with a good fit. elchan2012 Feb 26, 08:57

Nate Silver's missing out on all the fun :) {nm} tealfan Feb 26, 08:56

yes... jaymel Feb 25, 12:16

Nicely Done. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 25, 18:58

Does anyone have historical data for predicted box office sales? Or does anyone know if there is a data set available anywhere on the web? brianstorm Feb 25, 10:46

Yes, there's over 4 years of box office predictions in this spreadsheet RogerMore Feb 25, 10:52

Thank you so much RogerMore, that is exactly what I was hoping for! brianstorm Feb 25, 10:58

Collected, week by week {nm} RogerMore Feb 25, 11:06

That's impressive. Thanks again! {nm} brianstorm Feb 25, 11:28

Nice more data for the regression models. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 25, 15:40

Announcing the beta version of the HSXsanity box office database, with adjust and delist estimators for you to try. RogerMore Feb 24, 14:20

um, holy crap this is amazing? {nm} Moviesnob Feb 24, 14:38

Wow, good stuff!! {nm} eyescovered Feb 24, 18:35

finally had a chance to take a peek...holy smokes! {nm} tealfan Feb 24, 22:41

oh...and thanks for doing this! {nm} tealfan Feb 24, 23:34

That is awesome. You've really outdone yourself. Thanks! {nm} Willroast Feb 24, 22:43

2 competitor kaigee {nm} mike255 Feb 25, 06:58

Hmm, every interesting. I could implement a nice regression model on all that data, and do BO predictions. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 25, 07:01

Yeah, letting the number-crunchers have a go at that sort of stuff and seeing the result is one of my main motivations for sharing the info. RogerMore Feb 25, 07:55

So you've run Linear Regressions? I guess it a matter of identifying the right set of features to get the best fit. elchan2012 Feb 25, 15:33

Only to see what relationships there are between early indicators and delist. RogerMore Feb 25, 17:04

(So I think you can do it with two factors - target audience and level of audience interest) {nm} RogerMore Feb 25, 17:07

This data is a little more complicated. I'm going to work on a regression for the predictions database you have above, first. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 25, 19:47

(Actually, Three - I forgot "time of year") {nm} RogerMore Feb 26, 03:52

Wow..that's a lot of work...thanks for the effort...much appreciated! {nm} Flash Feb 25, 09:51

WOWZER - That's Impressive. A Tip O' The Hat. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 25, 19:03

Have a lot of extra H$ just sitting in my account. Any strategies for putting them use? Not stock / bond specific, just strategies! {nm} JustaGuy Feb 23, 15:43

You only have 420 mil. I could burn through that in SBOs alone... However, I digress. (more) PVL Admin Feb 24, 01:12

Of course, all of this (and more) is available in the Port Value League description area of the league you are in... {nm} PVL Admin Feb 24, 01:15

You don't have to radar all the SBO, just use this search to find every SBO with a dROI above 2, for instance ... elchan2012 Feb 24, 10:03

Penny stocks {mainly} and Slow bleeder paid of handsomely in first week alone - nice boost to a stagnant port - THANKS! {nm} JustaGuy Feb 28, 17:42

Could someone provide the link to Kaigee's site? {nm} JustaGuy Feb 24, 10:12

KAIGEE. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 24, 10:44

FISH GIVING {nm} PVL Admin Feb 24, 11:58

Under the COMMUNITY tab at the top of your page, there is a link to HSX fansites. Kaigee and more are there. {nm} PVL Admin Feb 24, 11:57

FISH TEACHING {nm} PVL Admin Feb 24, 11:58

"Light a fire for a man and he'll be warm for a night; light a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." DTravel Feb 25, 02:33

Technically your would be warm, buy you won't feel it after a certain point your brain shuts down sensations.and you won't feel it. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 25, 07:05

Invest in every fund, if not already. {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Feb 24, 05:00

Nah, Rocket's advice (PVL Admin, above) is better. Much better! {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Feb 24, 05:02

Short every development MST you can find. {nm} ndmaster Feb 24, 07:25

Please check the Movies Board under the Thread 'So I've Got A Free Billion. <See Inside>. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 24, 07:41

NEW LEAGUE FOR FUND MANAGERS (only). Please check your personal leagues for invite. AwardsFund Feb 23, 13:39

AWARD report to shareholders PVL Admin Feb 21, 20:26

One questions, why do you not like Lemurs? They are cute, intelligent, and our oldest living relative. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 22, 06:22

It's a limited that consistently bleeds. nothing against Lemurs (the creature), but chose to short the stock. {nm} AwardsFund Feb 22, 11:29

Tagging initial report to shareholders [AWARD] {nm} AwardsFund Feb 22, 12:19

MILESTONE: Top 100 2014 With A YTD Port. 170.0 MILL Would Be # 66 On The 2014 YTD List. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 20, 22:16

Claiming #66 in February on a running YTD list... that you actually do not appear on... is not a milestone RazorHawk Feb 21, 10:10

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 21, 10:18

Good Luck AWARD fund oneman Feb 20, 21:13

I'll do my best. :) {nm} AwardsFund Feb 20, 21:25

Best of luck Rocket! {nm} slappydavid Feb 21, 04:06

Good luck! Take care of my baby ;) {nm} eyescovered Feb 21, 04:25

Under New Management :) {nm} AwardsFund Feb 21, 11:39

Haha, sorry bout all the potato chip crumbs and soda cans all over the place ;) {nm} eyescovered Feb 21, 11:49

It's all cleaned up now. Will be replaced with popcorn and water bottles. ;) {nm} AwardsFund Feb 21, 21:10

AWARD has made all initial purchases. Open for business. {nm} AwardsFund Feb 21, 15:17

THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME SORT OF DISCONNECT HERE .... project Feb 19, 17:16

if movies don't report to ERC, starbonds will detach. BUT, the movie can still delist using alternative sources {nm} lapuckfan Feb 19, 17:26

I had always understood (MISunderstood?) that the stock always delisted according to ERC ... there have been project Feb 20, 17:40

Glossary entry for cash-out price: "ERC does not report box-office for a film, alternate sources may be used." {nm} socby19 Feb 20, 20:42

(JTTSP) has been permanently Removed from (CBLAN). {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 19, 18:48

I won 50k cash playing Classic Cash Today mike255 Feb 19, 14:15

Time to Buy that PowerBall Ticket. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Feb 19, 16:12

yes before the luck wears off {nm} tealfan Feb 19, 16:34

The two events are not dependents. For Powerall, he had very tiny amounts of luck to start with, so he's bound to run out. {nm} elchan2012 Feb 20, 20:32