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Why I think "The Hobbit" will beat "I am legend" for best December opening.

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Nov 25, 20:16 in response to GMov's post Fair poins as well...I agree on Parental Guidance...am...

HOBIT is currently priced for an opening around 110, so I'm using that number as a point of reference.

The three biggest December openings so far are "I am Legend" (77 in 2007), "Avatar" (77 in 2009) and "The Return of the King" (72.6 in 2003).

When "The Return of the King" opened, one film had opened over 110 at any time of the year.  When "I am Legend" opened, five movies had opened over 110.  Now, seventeen have.  Put another way: when "I am Legend" opened, it was the 17th best opening ever.  When "The Return of the King" opened, it was the 8th best opening weekend ever.

Why didn't "Avatar" open "better"?  "Avatar" and "The Return of the King" both opened on the weekend before Christmas.  "I am Legend" and "The Hobbit" both chose the weekend before the weekend before Christmas, making its opening weekend much more "normal," and not vulnerable, I think, to the "suppressed holiday opening because life is busy" effect.

I think there is also an "intangible" at play, since the first three films were considered so well done.  I think "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" also benefited by this sense that something excellent and accessible was on offer.

 

RS says low single digits for [COLC2] and mid teens for [KILTS] {nm}   Moviesnob on Nov 25, 18:02

I've seen a strangely high number of COLC2 TV ads, not that this means anything. I wonder if even those who saw the 1st remember it. {nm}   dsbman on Nov 25, 18:09

Here are some futures that should cause some conversation   Moviesnob on Nov 25, 18:17

no way! {nm}   RazorHawk on Nov 25, 18:28

I believe... one of the five will prove close; but the other four are low.   second gary on Nov 25, 18:41

Remember, December openers tend to have lower OW's and great legs. Highest December opener ever is $77MM.   GMov on Nov 25, 18:44

A good point.   second gary on Nov 25, 19:28

Fair poins as well...I agree on Parental Guidance...am indifferent on Les Mis...but why may I ask do you think Hobbit will do so well? Seems {nm}   GMov on Nov 25, 19:50

Why I think "The Hobbit" will beat "I am legend" for best December opening.   second gary on Nov 25, 20:16

Avatar would likely have opened better but there was a blizzard that hit 1/4 of the country   alfpaulytd2012 on Nov 25, 20:31

Seems logical. I have checked with some local theaters and seems like presales are solid but nowhere near the tent poles like    GMov on Nov 25, 20:43

also LOTR3 opened on a Wed and had 51 mil for W&T which was not counted in OW - had that opened on Fri, it would have blown away prev Dec {nm}   JDolphin on Nov 26, 01:46

I'd forgotten the W opening for LRDR3. That's a good point in HOBIT's favour. {nm}   second gary on Nov 26, 06:45

I got my tickets to The Hobbit High Frame Rate 3D on the 18th Dec...Can't wait.... but I guess I will.   Lucas73 on Nov 27, 00:38

BTW I was wondering what that OW multiplier will be for the movies opening on the 25th since its a Tuesday...   gardavou on Nov 25, 19:39

Scroll down to the bottom of this page, find "Glossary." There, if you go to the entry for "Adjust Price"...   second gary on Nov 25, 19:55

TY   gardavou on Nov 25, 20:01

I don't suppose they indicate whether the XMas ones are for just the 3 day weekend? {nm}   Paul2k on Nov 25, 19:08

nope, but good question {nm}   Moviesnob on Nov 25, 19:14

Hobbit is gravely under predicted there.    thatpj on Nov 25, 20:50

Like Avatar's 77 mil? {nm}   PVL Admin on Nov 26, 10:33

Well, I have *seen* KILTS.... {nm}   Facto on Nov 25, 18:20

Shame Pitt wasn't better. Though I did enjoy Ray Liotta. {nm}   He was looting me, ruining me! on Nov 25, 18:32

Pitt was ok, turning in another sociopath character, against JGAND. Saw 7 Psychopaths today, and that was more enjoyable. {nm}   Facto on Nov 26, 16:47





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