HSX Forum

Movies

Because you can't move Christmas, change shopping behavior, travel plans and predict winter storms. {nm}

Posted by: Antibody on Apr 21, 23:59 in response to nilephelan's post Why is anyone trying to use previous December history for...

Is Star7 $300 undervalued atm? tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:23

star7 is at ~350 {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 15:27

If the industry is looking at a 230-250M opening that means it's worth about 650. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:29

Says who? Not the article you linked. {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 15:33

All projections credited to unnamed execs, insiders and analysts. Quite a poor excuse for an article. {nm} Initech Apr 21, 15:43

Still 4500 screens and one of the best trailers ever. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:50

That's a $53K per theatre average. HOBT1 did $20,900, AVATR did $22,300, LRDR3 did $19,600. I expect STAR7 is going to be huge... RogerMore Apr 21, 16:10

(using the midpoint of the $230-$250M prediction above) {nm} RogerMore Apr 21, 16:11

Why is anyone trying to use previous December history for Star Wars 7 opening? That data is completely irrelevant nilephelan Apr 21, 23:08

Because you can't move Christmas, change shopping behavior, travel plans and predict winter storms. Antibody Apr 21, 23:59

Christmas is bigger than any film and the whole period is one big long weekend. You're just going to disregard histories clear evidence? {nm} Shrike Apr 22, 06:08

We are talking Dec. 17th-20th, not Christmas and this is an event film like no other. Name another true December event film. {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 06:22

RogerMore just did. SW isn't any more "true". {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 08:09

Completely incorrect. Poll theater owners or people working in the industry if you think Star Wars isn't any different {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 08:51

Your opinion. Why don't you show us the poll results. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 09:35

Actually, it isn't an opinion. It is at least on an anecdotal scale a solid fact. Theater owners are viewing this as something.... nilephelan Apr 22, 09:42

We all know it's gonna set a new Dec record. Tell us something we dont'. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 09:44

Because we are talking about the industry expectation of $230 million and rogermore, yourself and others... nilephelan Apr 22, 10:04

230 million is a completely made up number by tenchi7. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 10:08

Well, the expectation is that it can at least break $200 million and $230 million is a reachable goal. {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 10:19

I'm not saying it can't be done - but I need a better understanding of why those expectations exist than "Duh, it's Star Wars", before RogerMore Apr 22, 11:05

mabye! {nm} professor smartbrain Apr 21, 15:30

Criminally underpriced in my book, but it's still pretty far out. {nm} skunkrunner Apr 21, 15:36

and not a lot of people have 35million to tie up for 3/4 of a year...plenty of other opportunities to double your money in half that time {nm} Cj Apr 21, 15:39

The Largest Pre-Christmas Weekend Box Office (Total for all 78 Films) was 2007 - 160.45 MILL. RotoHockeyYTD2013MainPort Apr 21, 15:42

The largest Weekend Box Office ever was $270 million Dec. 25-27, 2009. Antibody Apr 21, 15:46

that's toast {nm} professor smartbrain Apr 21, 16:04

Last Starwars made 108 mil OW in 2005 dollars = 140 in today's dollars. That's about 378 mil with adjust multiple = underpriced {nm} Awards Fund Apr 21, 16:37

You get a faster return putting the money in AVNG2. {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 16:59

No contest. Just answering the question. {nm} Awards Fund Apr 21, 19:56

$30 underprice is a huge difference from his $300. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 00:01

Avng2 is way underpriced also. Even if they sell the same exact amount of tickets that is still about 225 with 10% ticket inflation. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 21:28

And STAR7 could have 1000 more theaters, so add 25% more to that OW. PLus the original actors will bring in fans that ignored the prequels {nm} JDolphin Apr 21, 22:13

8 months of irrational exuberance is going to get real old, oh wait it already is. The OW will be huge but why are people getting islander Apr 22, 06:43





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 1000 32.39 (-0.48)          Hadestown: The Musical (HDSTW) 38000 19.86 (-0.91)          Meagan Good (MGOOD) 5000 50.44 (+0.86)          The Unknown (TUNKN) 150000 1.57 (+0.07)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 429.75 (+9.53)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 67000 429.75 (+9.53)          Trust Me, I’m a Doctor (TMIAD) 150000 2.84 (-0.02)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 150000 32.39 (-0.48)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 10000 32.39 (-0.48)          Dennis (DENIS) 150000 5.04 (+0.12)          Moana (MOAN1) 35000 116.19 (-0.98)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          The Partner (PRTNR) 30000 46.75 (+0.59)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 20000 75.82 (+4.74)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Taylor Hackford (THACK) 25000 18.90 (+0.40)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 5000 3.62 (-0.12)          Zero A.D.: The Birth of Christ (BTLHM) 150000 31.92 (+0.54)          Coward (COWRD) 150000 1.30 (+0.14)          Atonement (ATONM) 70000 1.83 (-0.13)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Ali G: Who Iz I? (ALIG2) 63000 21.41 (+0.69)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 16177 614.09 (+24.03)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 614.09 (+24.03)          Florence Pugh (FPUGH) 20000 154.11 (-1.00)          Moana (MOAN1) 50000 116.19 (-0.98)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 200 7.05 (+0.03)          Voltron (VOLTN) 85 19.52 (+0.02)          Tommy Karate (TKART) 10 15.98 (+0.14)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 4 3.81 (+0.01)          Tomb Raider (TOMB4) 555 2.46 (+0.01)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 21280 59.63 (+1.30)          Claire Foy (CFOY) 197 8.99 (-0.09)          Mark Ruffalo (MRUFF) 25000 51.31 (+0.50)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 150000 261.97 (-5.37)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 3 10.37 (-0.01)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 80 184.30 (-0.25)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 150000 234.87 (-3.30)          Watch Dogs (WTDOG) 190 8.03 (-0.01)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 1350 180.76 (+1.60)          Vegas: A Love Story (VALVS) 3 8.30 (-0.01)          Urban Legend (URBN3) 5 4.44 (-0.02)          White Lies (WHTLI) 33 13.28 (-0.04)          Five Nights at Freddy's 3 (5NAF3) 10000 82.57 (+1.78)          White Elephant (WELEP) 6 14.00 (-0.08)          What Happens At Night (WHANT) 3 48.20 (+0.02)          John Wick Prequel (WICK0) 75 32.10 (-0.06)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 1000 51.82 (+5.13)