HSX Forum

Movies

8 months of irrational exuberance is going to get real old, oh wait it already is. The OW will be huge but why are people getting

Posted by: islander (a.k.a del_CHG_islander2) on Apr 22, 06:43 in response to tenchi7's post Is Star7 $300 undervalued atm?

bent out of shape about it?

Ive seen various sites comments with people suggesting *seriously* up to 500M OW! Why not just be excited and hope for a great movie?

december will affect the OW, by how much, who knows, but if disney wanted a surefire $300M OW then they should have opened in summer.

Im sure they will be happy with their billions dollars christmas legs

Is Star7 $300 undervalued atm? tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:23

star7 is at ~350 {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 15:27

If the industry is looking at a 230-250M opening that means it's worth about 650. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:29

Says who? Not the article you linked. {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 15:33

All projections credited to unnamed execs, insiders and analysts. Quite a poor excuse for an article. {nm} Initech Apr 21, 15:43

Still 4500 screens and one of the best trailers ever. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 15:50

That's a $53K per theatre average. HOBT1 did $20,900, AVATR did $22,300, LRDR3 did $19,600. I expect STAR7 is going to be huge... RogerMore Apr 21, 16:10

(using the midpoint of the $230-$250M prediction above) {nm} RogerMore Apr 21, 16:11

Why is anyone trying to use previous December history for Star Wars 7 opening? That data is completely irrelevant nilephelan Apr 21, 23:08

Because you can't move Christmas, change shopping behavior, travel plans and predict winter storms. {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 23:59

Christmas is bigger than any film and the whole period is one big long weekend. You're just going to disregard histories clear evidence? {nm} Shrike Apr 22, 06:08

We are talking Dec. 17th-20th, not Christmas and this is an event film like no other. Name another true December event film. {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 06:22

RogerMore just did. SW isn't any more "true". {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 08:09

Completely incorrect. Poll theater owners or people working in the industry if you think Star Wars isn't any different {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 08:51

Your opinion. Why don't you show us the poll results. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 09:35

Actually, it isn't an opinion. It is at least on an anecdotal scale a solid fact. Theater owners are viewing this as something.... nilephelan Apr 22, 09:42

We all know it's gonna set a new Dec record. Tell us something we dont'. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 09:44

Because we are talking about the industry expectation of $230 million and rogermore, yourself and others... nilephelan Apr 22, 10:04

230 million is a completely made up number by tenchi7. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 10:08

Well, the expectation is that it can at least break $200 million and $230 million is a reachable goal. {nm} nilephelan Apr 22, 10:19

I'm not saying it can't be done - but I need a better understanding of why those expectations exist than "Duh, it's Star Wars", before RogerMore Apr 22, 11:05

mabye! {nm} professor smartbrain Apr 21, 15:30

Criminally underpriced in my book, but it's still pretty far out. {nm} skunkrunner Apr 21, 15:36

and not a lot of people have 35million to tie up for 3/4 of a year...plenty of other opportunities to double your money in half that time {nm} Cj Apr 21, 15:39

The Largest Pre-Christmas Weekend Box Office (Total for all 78 Films) was 2007 - 160.45 MILL. RotoHockeyYTD2013MainPort Apr 21, 15:42

The largest Weekend Box Office ever was $270 million Dec. 25-27, 2009. Antibody Apr 21, 15:46

that's toast {nm} professor smartbrain Apr 21, 16:04

Last Starwars made 108 mil OW in 2005 dollars = 140 in today's dollars. That's about 378 mil with adjust multiple = underpriced {nm} Awards Fund Apr 21, 16:37

You get a faster return putting the money in AVNG2. {nm} Antibody Apr 21, 16:59

No contest. Just answering the question. {nm} Awards Fund Apr 21, 19:56

$30 underprice is a huge difference from his $300. {nm} Antibody Apr 22, 00:01

Avng2 is way underpriced also. Even if they sell the same exact amount of tickets that is still about 225 with 10% ticket inflation. {nm} tenchi7 Apr 21, 21:28

And STAR7 could have 1000 more theaters, so add 25% more to that OW. PLus the original actors will bring in fans that ignored the prequels {nm} JDolphin Apr 21, 22:13

8 months of irrational exuberance is going to get real old, oh wait it already is. The OW will be huge but why are people getting islander Apr 22, 06:43





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Escape From New York (ESCNY) 25000 16.52 (-0.45)          District 10 (DIS10) 100000 9.95 (+0.15)          Attack of the 50 Foot Woman (A50FW) 150000 38.70 (-0.61)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 78.17 (+0.84)          Toy Story 5 H$125 Put (TOYS5.PU) 25000 0.75 (+0.04)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 3.37 (+0.26)          Attack of the 50 Foot Woman (A50FW) 150000 38.70 (-0.61)          Ghost of Tsushima (GOTSU) 100000 10.57 (+0.52)          Attack of the 50 Foot Woman (A50FW) 150000 38.70 (-0.61)          42.6 Years (426YR) 150000 9.42 (+0.03)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 14.91 (-1.28)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 1 10.73 (-1.79)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 149999 412.93 (-2.09)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 25000 16.52 (-0.45)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 14.91 (-1.28)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 14.91 (-1.28)          Toy Story 5 - Opening Weekend (TOYS5.OW) 100000 150.07 (+0.66)          Jane (JANE1) 20000 13.17 (+1.35)          Michael $285M Blockbuster Warran (MJACK.BW) 757 16.31 (0.00)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 13.86 (+0.48)          Jane (JANE1) 80304 13.17 (+1.35)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 150000 16.52 (-0.45)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 25000 29.16 (-0.11)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 1 52.34 (0.00)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 20641 13.86 (+0.48)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 15419 10.73 (-1.79)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 34106 26.74 (-1.61)          Lice (LICE) 1 5.50 (+1.05)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 7.62 (+0.10)          Lice (LICE) 25000 5.50 (+1.05)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 1 8.97 (-0.50)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 26.74 (-1.61)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 50000 8.97 (-0.50)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 149999 117.37 (-0.39)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 150000 5.31 (+0.68)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 23235 117.37 (-0.39)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 41554 57.23 (+0.04)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 412.93 (-2.09)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 150000 5.31 (+0.68)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 148243 56.24 (+0.19)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 150000 0.59 (-0.02)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 150000 26.01 (+0.13)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 1408 26.01 (+0.13)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 3.37 (+0.26)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 78.17 (+0.84)          Keke Palmer (KPALM) 25000 60.98 (-0.25)          Lice (LICE) 25000 5.50 (+1.05)          Jane (JANE1) 20000 13.17 (+1.35)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 90000 10.73 (-1.79)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 25000 16.52 (-0.45)