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think about this and more on Burton...
if Angry Birds can pull $35-45M OW the weekend before, that's $20-$30M direct competition off the table for Alice over the holiday weekend. that's a huge chunk of direct competition it didn't have to face it's first go around.
then factor in that every parent with a 7 year old boy and older needing parental guidance will be seeing XMen, that's another huge chunk of target audience distracted elsewhere.
XMen most likely comes in at $100M - $125M+ over those 4 days and I'm doubtful it's worried about Alice in the least.
Burton is producing, but even so, I believe his fanbase is limited. he's been using the same cast for way too long and besides Alice he has only had two films open over $50M (Charlie 11 years ago and Apes 15 years back).
the struggle for two films to approach $200M that weekend is real. if XMen can pull $120M+, I personally don't think it bodes well for Alice to approach much more than half of that.
we shall see.
though Disney is on a roll right now, they better brace themselves for Alice 2. IMO here's why... Apr 23, 07:45
one things I didn't touch on is that a bad domestic performance doesn't eqaute to a flop. this could do well overseas Apr 23, 07:56
I saw Force Awakens in iMax3D and LOVED it, then revisited RealD and it was a awful as I remembered Apr 23, 10:34
Spot-on analysis, and I'm inclined to agree with your projections. {nm} Apr 23, 07:56
thank you Rick (and Morty). {nm} Apr 23, 08:01
I can see where you are coming from but I think alice and huntsman are world's apart, branding-wise... Apr 23, 08:10
that's certainly a good point. probably had some affect on the sequels box office take. but I think nostalgia in Alice's case Apr 23, 08:20
think about this and more on Burton... Apr 23, 08:49
A good result settles strategy questions, but it seems audiences weren't interested in a sequel focused on invented graft. Apr 23, 08:57
very well said gary {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Imagine a movie called "Aspartame: Origins." First there's a substitution, and now we're supposed to care about the sub. :) Apr 23, 09:25
ha, yes! and as far as sequels nobody asked for, I don't necessarily fault Disney if the films fails for Apr 23, 10:06
The current. . . Apr 23, 10:21
If SHRK2 and "The Day After Tomorrow" can do 96M and 86M three-day in 2004, I have to think XMEN6 and ALCN2 have room in 2016. Apr 23, 10:42
But who knows if ALCN2 has any merits. {nm} Apr 23, 10:43
also, on Shreks 2nd weekend! shows how you open a sequel correctly. Apr 23, 10:55
Plus it has all the Pistol & Boo 'War On Terrier' Publicity going for it. {nm} Apr 23, 08:21
Off with their heads... Apr 23, 08:29
... Apr 23, 08:32
... Apr 23, 08:55
Agree 100% {nm} Apr 23, 08:32
I'm with you on this. Plus Disney marketing Will let this drop fast after OW nrs... Nemo2 is coming {nm} Apr 23, 09:03
Also : my compliments on the analysis... This site gets better everyday tnks to players like you :-) {nm} Apr 23, 09:16
thank you kindly. {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Ditto. {nm} Apr 23, 09:42
I have to say, I disagree, and I will see this movie solely to see ARICK as the caterpillar. Apr 23, 10:09
your opinion is valid. what would you qualify as a success for this film? I'm willing to accept that Apr 23, 10:20
okay, that's fair. not to be doom and gloom, but let me lay out why I think even $75M OW would be a failure (domestically)... Apr 23, 12:00
i really think this one flops ... hated the first one ... this one looks worse {nm} Apr 23, 10:50
one great barometer I use for my assessments are local buzz and that starts in my home. Apr 23, 11:01
Lobogotti's mamabaro :-) {nm} Apr 23, 11:12
if mama ain't happy... ;) {nm} Apr 23, 11:13
well, you touch on it, but its actually the main reason this movie exists: first one did 2/3 of its business internationally Apr 23, 12:29
the first film wasnt even released in china and still did almost $700mil {nm} Apr 23, 12:33
speaks to Depps starpower. impressive numbers all around. {nm} Apr 23, 12:40
yes, hard for me estimate what a failure is for them. I can only speculate in comparison to the first Apr 23, 12:52
i just dont know enough about international audiences to even speculate. {nm} Apr 23, 12:58
I know even less than you. {nm} Apr 23, 13:06
I agreed with everything except Apr 23, 16:06
fair enough. I will say they are marketing it well. awareness has to be off the charts, as I see ti everywhere. Apr 23, 17:37
My concern from the trailers is that it's going to be more Last Stand than Days of Future Past quality wise Apr 24, 04:20