Movies

though Disney is on a roll right now, they better brace themselves for Alice 2. IMO here's why... lobogotti Apr 23, 07:45

one things I didn't touch on is that a bad domestic performance doesn't eqaute to a flop. this could do well overseas lobogotti Apr 23, 07:56

I agree with what you say but I think you forgot that it was the biggest 3D movie released after Avatar. People flocked in for that too.. a b4bad Apr 23, 09:33

the one thing I have noticed over the last six months is the rate of movie goers decision to buy standard over 3D is quite high. lobogotti Apr 23, 10:16

I saw Force Awakens in iMax3D and LOVED it, then revisited RealD and it was a awful as I remembered DTshakes Apr 23, 10:34

Spot-on analysis, and I'm inclined to agree with your projections. {nm} RickandMorty Apr 23, 07:56

thank you Rick (and Morty). {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 08:01

I can see where you are coming from but I think alice and huntsman are world's apart, branding-wise... RamsFan2004 Apr 23, 08:10

that's certainly a good point. probably had some affect on the sequels box office take. but I think nostalgia in Alice's case lobogotti Apr 23, 08:20

You definitely have a case. I also wouldn't discount Tim Burton's halo effect...I'm sure most casual moviegoers think he's directing (I did) {nm} RamsFan2004 Apr 23, 08:25

think about this and more on Burton... lobogotti Apr 23, 08:49

A good result settles strategy questions, but it seems audiences weren't interested in a sequel focused on invented graft. second gary Apr 23, 08:57

very well said gary {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 09:17

Imagine a movie called "Aspartame: Origins." First there's a substitution, and now we're supposed to care about the sub. :) second gary Apr 23, 09:25

ha, yes! and as far as sequels nobody asked for, I don't necessarily fault Disney if the films fails for lobogotti Apr 23, 10:06

The current. . . second gary Apr 23, 10:21

agreed, but I don't know if there is room for $130M and $80M at the target demo... especially if Angry Birds does well on the 20th. lobogotti Apr 23, 10:23

If SHRK2 and "The Day After Tomorrow" can do 96M and 86M three-day in 2004, I have to think XMEN6 and ALCN2 have room in 2016. second gary Apr 23, 10:42

But who knows if ALCN2 has any merits. {nm} second gary Apr 23, 10:43

also, on Shreks 2nd weekend! shows how you open a sequel correctly. lobogotti Apr 23, 10:55

Plus it has all the Pistol & Boo 'War On Terrier' Publicity going for it. {nm} Johnny Depp Apr 23, 08:21

Off with their heads... Queen of Hearts Apr 23, 08:29

... Queen of Hearts Apr 23, 08:32

... ~JPV~ Apr 23, 08:55

Agree 100% {nm} ~JPV~ Apr 23, 08:32

I'm with you on this. Plus Disney marketing Will let this drop fast after OW nrs... Nemo2 is coming {nm} SequelsFund Apr 23, 09:03

Also : my compliments on the analysis... This site gets better everyday tnks to players like you :-) SequelsFund Apr 23, 09:16

thank you kindly. {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 09:17

Ditto. {nm} second gary Apr 23, 09:42

I have to say, I disagree, and I will see this movie solely to see ARICK as the caterpillar. hilarycondon Apr 23, 10:09

your opinion is valid. what would you qualify as a success for this film? I'm willing to accept that lobogotti Apr 23, 10:20

It has the potential to surprise again, partially due to low expectations, but I'd say it needs min. OW of $60m+, but it will get that. hilarycondon Apr 23, 11:34

okay, that's fair. not to be doom and gloom, but let me lay out why I think even $75M OW would be a failure (domestically)... lobogotti Apr 23, 12:00

i really think this one flops ... hated the first one ... this one looks worse {nm} bunty_ketti Apr 23, 10:50

one great barometer I use for my assessments are local buzz and that starts in my home. lobogotti Apr 23, 11:01

Lobogotti's mamabaro :-) {nm} JMT-NL Apr 23, 11:12

if mama ain't happy... ;) {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 11:13

well, you touch on it, but its actually the main reason this movie exists: first one did 2/3 of its business internationally Moviesnob Apr 23, 12:29

the first film wasnt even released in china and still did almost $700mil {nm} Moviesnob Apr 23, 12:33

speaks to Depps starpower. impressive numbers all around. {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 12:40

I'm fascinated that this has potential to gross less than half the first domestically. if that happens, it has to also affect the lobogotti Apr 23, 12:38

maybe they are budgeting appropriately. Its certainly not being set up on paper as well as the first one - as you note its opening in the Moviesnob Apr 23, 12:44

as far as I can tell, Disney didn't even include this in their Cinemacon presentation while they showed 30 minutes of Dory. {nm} Moviesnob Apr 23, 12:47

yes, hard for me estimate what a failure is for them. I can only speculate in comparison to the first lobogotti Apr 23, 12:52

i just dont know enough about international audiences to even speculate. {nm} Moviesnob Apr 23, 12:58

I know even less than you. {nm} lobogotti Apr 23, 13:06

I agreed with everything except shadowking Apr 23, 16:06

fair enough. I will say they are marketing it well. awareness has to be off the charts, as I see ti everywhere. lobogotti Apr 23, 17:37

My concern from the trailers is that it's going to be more Last Stand than Days of Future Past quality wise shadowking Apr 24, 04:20