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good stuff tomcat. I'd say that it definitely does better than 2.46 from Cinderella, because the reception was far stronger.

Posted by: lobogotti on Mar 20, 12:07 in response to tomcat90's post Here's the solid case for a $480m-$500m delist:

lack of competition is going to serve it well, like you stated.

$500 by delist is no short order though.  only 7 films have ever done it.

Rogue One took 32 days to hit.
Dark Knight took 45 days to hit.
Avengers hit in 23 day, with one day left to spare.
Jurassic World hit it in 17 days.
Titatnic took 98 days to hit.
Avatar took 32 days to hit.
SFA did it in 10 days (almost 9).


So while it is possible, it would need need to have excellent weekdays to get there IMHO.



BTATB: "Coming in at just about $175m" tomcat90 Mar 20, 08:32

Here's the solid case for a $480m-$500m delist: tomcat90 Mar 20, 08:52

Counterpoint - CINDE was released at the same time of year, had an A Cinemascore, held up well against its competition, etc. DM of 2.46. RogerMore Mar 20, 09:35

And take out TROLL which was November and PETS which was a summer original. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:41

Let me start by saying that I truly appreciate the way you responded and always respect differing opinions when phrased like that! tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:44

On the otherhand, a built-in audience could also mean more likely chance of frontloading. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:45

Yes, I agree, that is always a possibility. But what I saw at the multiplex was cross-generational. So we'll have to wait and see :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:47

Thanks for your analysis. See how it promotes positive discussion rather than negative discource. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:52

Thanks Anti. i agree with you and I appreciate the job you do. It's time to bring this fun site into the positive. Keep up the good job :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:55

A couple more live-action remake comps: Alice in Wonderland 2.5 Oz 2.5 {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 09:59

Yes those comps are legit, but they were films that started off slow, like SING, and then built an audience. Hard to compare tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:10

The live-action remakes have a built-in audience so they make better comps than animated original films like SING, ZOOTP, PETS...etc. {nm} Antibody Mar 20, 10:16

Yes, agree, but there weren't to many of them. But JNGLB's 2.79 x 174.8 would still be $487.7m. And BTATB has more going for it :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:30

Excellent post providing your perspective. Wish we could get back to more discussions like this. {nm} RollingThunder Mar 20, 09:50

Thank you for saying that RT. So do I. I appreciate every differing opinion as long as it shows a modicum of respect. This forum lacks that {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 09:53

Looking at the Thursday to OW multipliers of this list, BTATB is the second most frontloaded shadowking Mar 20, 10:11

Yes Shadow, that is a distinct possibility. I know I'm giving a "better-than-average" scenario. My gut says close to $100m 2nd weekend. tomcat90 Mar 20, 10:18

good stuff tomcat. I'd say that it definitely does better than 2.46 from Cinderella, because the reception was far stronger. lobogotti Mar 20, 12:07

Thanks Lobo, I always respect your opinion. And yes, the weekdays are key. And haha, TFA in only 10 days. Unreal :) {nm} tomcat90 Mar 20, 12:24

I saw it as a date movie Sat, theater was packed. Same theater a 1:30pm showing today (Monday) with my five year old Machined2 Mar 20, 17:03





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