HSX Forum

Movies

Uh...

Posted by: RazorHawk on Mar 28, 20:22 in response to Port Value League Admin's post Interesting... So, are you saying

No.

ALL stocks listed at HSX "are affected primarily by number of people purchasing/selling" (called 'Virtual Trader') but HSX has put in place a few mechanisms to correct the stocks (like weekend adjusts, starbond adjusts and stock delists).  CX reflect the same information as HSX, what traders think a movies box office will in the first four weekends of release.  CX just does not have the opening weekend mechanism that the HSX stocks do.

Your original post and your reply to my post feel manipulative in nature, like you are suggesting/telling everybody that they should short all the CX stocks that are higher priced than their HSX stock counterparts.  "and one would be wise to simply short anything with a big difference..." is a really unwise position to take.  The CX stocks are IPOed at a price and players invest accordingly to how they think that movie will make that price.  Most of the curent CX stocks listed at HSX are for summer movies and players have already invested at IPO (which I stated in my first post).  If you remove the idea of your manipulation, logic says a large percentage of players have already invested at IPO and are sitting on the stock, "with no momentum, the stock will not move". 

Holiday Warrants and CXs are like surfing.  You get on your board and paddle out into the water and wait for a wave.  HWs you are waiting for the strike price to come, CXs you are waiting for the IPO price.  Your investments arent that a movie will make its HW strike price or CX IPO price, you are investing for the amount they make OVER those prices, that is when you catch a wave and start surfing!  Your idea is that since a movie hasnt opened and made no box office, we should short Holiday Warrants at IPO? No, we should paddle out and get ready for that wave, and if the wave is a dud then we flip the stock short, thats the fun, thats the game part of playing these stocks.

Since the players are sitting on the stocks waiting and expecting them to make the CX price you should not expect any or much movement of said stocks unless some mechanism appears to move them (manipulation, reviews, trailers, etc). Newton's Laws: A body at rest stays at rest until an outside force acts upon it.

In the way that the CX stocks were created and how they are played you should expect this to be the norm: the stocks will rise after IPO and level off then sit in that range until release weekend (unless something moves them, like low theater count, terrible reviews, bad rating, protests, etc) and numbers come in. Good numbers will have some traders flip long and other new investors buy in causing the price to bump a little and then again level off until delist.  Bad opening numbers will cause attentive traders to flip short causing a fall in the stock a level off then a much smaller fall with a level off and hold at that price until delist.

Attempting to get traders to flip their CX stocks to shore up the price difference is a futile act.  It is as futile as somebody yelling daily that Avatar HW is $100 ARB and that everybody should buy; everybody did, and the market doesnt have the power to move that much price.  You may gain a few supporters and a little HSX money; but you will have to consistently make these kinds of posts and most likely recieve the same amount of player reaction (not much).  CXs will continue to operate this way until changes the basics of the stock itself.





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