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Would sub-45M really be that bad? Legs this time of year are pretty good. What's the good vs. bad OW threshold for it you think? {nm}

Posted by: HarryWarden on Dec 12, 22:09 in response to Rolling_Thunder's post Yes. Even the informal polling at my theater has been...

Either RS is on crack or we all are: [YOGIB] low 30s [TRON2] high 20s [FITER] low double digits [HDYKN] even lower double digits {nm} secretstalker Dec 12, 15:44

Thanks for the numbers. Their prediction for Narnia was off so it's hard to know. Think Tron should be a lot higher though {nm} numbersix_99 Dec 12, 15:47

Why is it so hard to believe that TRON2 won't do as well as HSX priced it? {nm} eyescovered Dec 12, 16:35

Well even though somebody I think it was SS said that this have some of the best action he's seen in a long time. That doesn't come accross Vashta Nerada Dec 12, 18:55

There is no Oscar buzz for MWAHL... none at all. In fact, everyone BUT MWAHL has Oscar buzz. {nm} secretstalker Dec 12, 18:56

***This*** has been playing all over MTV the last two weeks..."Derezzed" by Daft Punk (From Tron:Legacy) RazorHawk Dec 12, 21:37

With the exception of Tron, those numbers are much closer to reality than ERC {nm} RupertPupkin Dec 12, 15:50

Rs tends to over correct its projections when it overshoots the previous week {nm} notfabio Dec 12, 16:00

Yeah, but they've been saying 30s for TRON2 for weeks... and normally, they'll make a more reasonable prediction opening week secretstalker Dec 12, 16:03

Futures: secretstalker Dec 12, 15:51

Is that a typo for GULVR? {nm} The Commish Dec 12, 17:42

GULVR has a Dec 25 release, Dec 26 adjust (I'm assuming you were asking if 2 days is a typo?) {nm} RogerMore Dec 12, 17:46

I guess the stock page is wrong (it says 12/22 release) {nm} The Commish Dec 12, 18:59

Nope, that's 2 days... will be a 4.8 mult. {nm} secretstalker Dec 12, 18:02

MPRN3 has an 5-day with a 2.0 multiplier, right? Because it's not on the calendar yet... {nm} medusa Dec 12, 23:36

secretsalker-how do you get tracking numbers if you are not a subscriber paying alot, sorry for newb question in advance. {nm} HS-X Dec 13, 09:13

Tron has been tracking weak for weeks now and RS is not the only one who is pointing that out. {nm} filmboy20 Dec 12, 16:39

Yes. Even the informal polling at my theater has been weak. Sub-$45m OW appears likely and YOGIB isn't looking so hot, either. {nm} Rolling_Thunder Dec 12, 17:53

Is YOGIB "Patch Adams"? The holiday movie which looks beyond beyond bad, and yet is loved by some? second gary Dec 12, 19:21

$30M for TG doesn't sound high to me. That would be around the same numbers as Valkyrie and the buzz for TG is much stronger than that movie wrongturn687 Dec 12, 19:25

Would sub-45M really be that bad? Legs this time of year are pretty good. What's the good vs. bad OW threshold for it you think? HarryWarden Dec 12, 22:09

If YOGIB outgrosses TRON2, that would be an epic fail on the part of Disney's marketing. {nm} HarryWarden Dec 12, 22:15

Oh my god, I should have been watching HSX.. my port is a blood bath! {nm} MiyazakiFan Dec 13, 17:48

I shorted tron yesteray; I'm going into long mode now; I don't see how this movie could do less than 45M {nm} Carcharodon Dec 14, 06:15

Alright people, latest tracking at the studio puts the movie at 60, so RS is, indeed, on crack. Sounds more reasonable than 20 for this one. {nm} theinsider Dec 14, 19:02

Alvin and the chipmunks looks equally as terrible as YOGI.... and it made ton of $ when it came out. I think YOGI will make over 60 {nm} Faize Dec 16, 12:54





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Francis and the Godfather (FGODF) 150000 0.67 (+0.01)          Castro's Daughter aka Alina of C (CASDT) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          The Monkey (MONKY) 1 21.69 (-0.03)          Harvest Moon (HRVSM) 150000 0.09 (+0.02)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 1 10.33 (+0.37)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.35 (-0.65)          Bring Him to Me (BHTM) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 2.72 (+0.26)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 9999 21.06 (+1.36)          We Grown Now (WGNOW) 1 1.05 (-0.01)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 50000 59.21 (+0.86)          Arcadian (ARCAD) 50000 1.93 (-0.04)          Arcadian (ARCAD) 150000 1.93 (-0.04)          Wicked (WICKD) 10000 162.26 (+0.02)          Paddington in Peru (PADT3) 20000 44.55 (+0.05)          New Wave (NEWAV) 55000 5.21 (-0.04)          Final Destination 6: Bloodlines (FDES6) 1 16.94 (-0.19)          Final Destination 6: Bloodlines (FDES6) 150000 16.94 (-0.19)          Mortal Kombat 2 (MKMB2) 100 33.95 (0.00)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 14999 14.20 (-0.28)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 1 37.31 (-1.08)          Treasure (TRESU) 150000 3.73 (-0.05)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 150000 37.31 (-1.08)          Cleopatra (CLEOP) 11000 59.73 (+0.11)          Bruce Lee (BRLEE) 1 28.29 (0.00)          Bruce Lee (BRLEE) 1 28.29 (0.00)          Ezra (INAPB) 150000 6.45 (-0.01)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 50000 59.21 (+0.86)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 150000 30.12 (+0.06)          The Long Game (TLNGM) 150000 6.80 (-0.08)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 1509 309.54 (-1.01)          Abigail (ABGAL) 99500 59.56 (-0.68)          Borderlands (BRDLN) 100 76.18 (0.00)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 150000 113.29 (-0.05)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 99 309.54 (-1.01)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 59.21 (+0.86)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 25000 3.02 (+0.15)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 12000 19.35 (-0.65)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 150000 155.55 (+1.72)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 1000 17.32 (0.00)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 149999 22.99 (-0.08)          Good Bad & Undead (GBUND) 10000 3.24 (0.00)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 1000 52.87 (0.00)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 1000 141.77 (+0.11)          Nonnas (NONAS) 1000 9.43 (0.00)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 39.48 (-0.10)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 22.99 (-0.08)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 7.76 (-0.02)          Sam Rockwell (SROCK) 10000 47.60 (+0.06)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 150000 77.62 (+0.16)