HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Maths...
Within the last 12 months the number of calls and puts that have cashed out have exceeded the searchable limits of the functions available to us, but here goes:
Using data for 830 ish movies where calls and put derivatives have been offered to the market and only considering traders who buy at the IPO price and hold to delist.
61% of the time buying both results in a profit overall (excluding commissions).That is, the OW prediction by HSX is more than $4M away from the actual. Purely on average, within that 61%, the average profit is $120,000 made up of a $10 cash out and a $0 cashout.
Buying both the call and put for movies with a strike price of 100M or over has historically had the profit chance increase to 90% AND the average profit goes by a factor of four.
A dumb answer: 'Yes, I should short the call or put associated with a H$210 opener' Apr 11, 09:59
I shorted the put and bought the call and the opening weekend derivative. Agreed, little risk. {nm} Apr 12, 07:36
If you shorted AVNG2.PU at H$2, you would've lost over H$217,000. {nm} Apr 12, 12:56
AVNG2.PU didn't have the record amount of reserved pre ordered tickets a month before it came out. My expectation is 230. {nm} Apr 14, 09:37
In short... I'm covering the put before the end I expect it to delist at 0 {nm} Apr 14, 09:41
fwiw, AVNG2 presales is only beating other superhero films, the highest of which is AVNGR's $207M. {nm} Apr 16, 09:47
It has yet to pass the presale records of the Star Wars sequels. {nm} Apr 16, 09:49
Maths... Apr 13, 08:59
