HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
I was joking - PPDM is a catchphrase, and you'll normally see it when someone says "I bought STOCKX at $5 and it adjusted to $200".
I might as well expand on my ALCNW choice though, and why I won't flip no matter how far the price may rise today. This is a good example of how I look at openers.
The way I see it, ALCNW could open to anywhere between $75M and $95M this weekend. Everyone knows what Alice in Wonderland is, it has a director who suits the material and had great commercial success with CFACT and it promises to be visually spectacular. It looks like its going to have 4-quad appeal 4-quad. On the other hand, it's going to be quirky and it is going to challenge some children and some parents (in that it's not a typical kids movie, like WILD wasn't). I think it's very hard to pinpoint what it will make this weekend and anyone who gets closest to the pin will owe more to luck than skill.
At the moment, the stock is priced for about an $80 million opening. I'm pretty confident on what the floor will be because of the presales, nf's prediction that 300's March record is toast, xiayun's prediction for an $80m floor. Downside risk appears to be small = $75M OW means the stock will adjust down by about $13.50 for a $650K loss.
I'm less certain on where the ceiling is. It could make $80M. which means I break even (or lose money on the flip, but who cares because I am going to flip anyway - it doesn't matter whether I flip today or Sunday afternoon). But it could easily make more - $90 million maybe? This uncertainty makes the risk of holding it long over the weekend more attractive, while holding it short exposes me to greater risk.
So, holding it long means I will probably break-even, though there's a good chance ALCNW will adjust up, maybe by $20, and there's also a good chance it will adjust down, but even in a worst-case scenario I won't get too burned. OTOH if I hold it short, the most I will make is $650K, and I'm potentially exposing myself to a million dollar loss. To me, the risks of holding it long are known and relatively small, while the risks of holding it short are uncertain, and potentially large.
Also, for such an expensive stock, a drastic price change before halt (say, by $5) won't matter so much because the cost of the flip would outweigh any change in the risk (ie the potential gains getting smaller and the potential gains from shorting getting bigger). I might flip a cheaper stock like BRKLN if it moved by $5, or one that was getting some bad buzz (say, if no one showed up to midnights), but there's nothing that indicates to me that flipping ALCNW would be worthwhile.
Hope I haven't waffled too much :) But that's how I think about openers.
Gut Checks time? Long on Alice and Short on Brooklyn's Finest {nm} Mar 04, 23:42
Same here {nm} Mar 05, 00:16
Yep, the same!! {nm} Mar 05, 00:40
Alice is priced exactly right in my opinion, so not playing that one. Short the guys-film {nm} Mar 05, 00:41
Long on Alice, not playing the finest. Think Alice will shift small numbers up (or down) {nm} Mar 05, 02:45
Same! {nm} Mar 05, 03:50
Same here for the weekend. {nm} Mar 05, 03:59
Long Alice @ 191.23 Short Brooklyn @ 37.04 {nm} Mar 05, 04:42
Ppdm! {nm} Mar 05, 04:54
Sorry really bad with acronyms. Ppdm?? {nm} Mar 05, 05:02
Price paid doesn't matter. {nm} Mar 05, 05:04
I was joking - PPDM is a catchphrase, and you'll normally see it when someone says "I bought STOCKX at $5 and it adjusted to $200". Mar 05, 07:11
It's not an acronym. It's an initialism. An acronym is something like NATO, radar, or AIDS ... {nm} Mar 05, 06:47
You are right. I should have said abbreviation or initialism. Mar 05, 06:58
Thinking about it, PPDM is probably neither as the only place I've ever seen it is here. Between ... Mar 05, 10:16
Good thinking, but.. Shouldn't you be out sieging a skyscraper, somewhere.. ?? {nm} Mar 05, 14:50
Same here, but I got a high mark on ALCNW and a low mark on Brooklyn... either passes it and I'm reversin' {nm} Mar 05, 05:01
Long ALCNW. {nm} Mar 05, 05:04
Long on ALCNW, pass on BRKLN Mar 05, 06:02
Long ALCNW, waffling on BRKLN. {nm} Mar 05, 06:34
[KIDS] is long on [ALCNW] Mar 05, 06:53
Very Long ALCNW, I still think people are underestimating it's opening power- don't see enough movement in BRKLN to play {nm} Mar 05, 08:10
