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If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just

Posted by: tomcat90 on Oct 25, 15:25 in response to Antibody's post I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't...

having people act like sheep and follow whatever tracking numbers come out and then adjust. For it to truly have "worth", it should have stocks at prices that the masses don't realize are possible long before they come out. For example, I (and many others) have been long HALW3 since it was $1, knowing that if it ever got made, it would be a home run. But once Jamie Lee Curtis got involved, and tidbits about what it would be like came out, the stock should have skyrocketed. Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release. That's less than half of what it would earn just in it's OW. Now wouldn't HSX be worth a LOT more if it had been hovering at $125, for example, a month before it opened? There are some smart people that trade on here, as well as many insiders. You should encourage people to make their case for what something is worth at any point in the release cycle, and let other traders give their feedback into why it is or is not likely. Just having the site react to published guesses from others and creating an atmosphere where people are hesitant to speak up because you will chastise them is not a conducive environment for HSX to thrive. We ALL want it to do well and have value so it stays around and acts like a community of folks who love all things movies. And that's all I have to say about that haha Ā :)

W tracking: [FBST2] One tracker $63 million, another come close to $74.4 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:40

DL tracking: FBST2 $65M-$75M. [WIDOW] $10M-$16M. Antibody Oct 25, 10:41

DL tracking: Ditto for [ISFAM] $10M-$16M. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 10:42

THR: FBST2 $63M-$75M; ISFAM $10 million-$17 million ; WIDOW $10 million-$17 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:48

The first 'Beasts" delisted at a 2.6744 multiple. IF this one matches that, which sequels don't tend to do, it would delist from $168-$200 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 11:58

That's a wrong assumption. TWLI2, HGAM2, LRDR2 did better than the original. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:05

in opening weekend and total box office. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:11

Familiarity breeds the opposite of contempt! {nm} Wilderness_Journey Oct 25, 12:13

Maybe with your cherry picked examples, but what about something more relevant like the first 3 Harry Potter films?2.64 then 2.42, then 2.25 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:36

The point is we don't know yet. FBST2 could open above tracking. You're doing calculations on numbers that hasn't happen yet. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:41

And thus the capitalized word "IF" it performs similarly. Just like I said FIRSM didn't deserve a 4.7 and you compared it to Argo tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:47

How about when you calcuated that CRASN would delist less than H$50? It's about credibility, it's about you making early assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:50

^It's NOT about credibility... {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:51

What? I was long CRASN for the longest time. You sure that was me? although you convinced people to stay in STAR8 tomcat90 Oct 25, 13:12

This whole thread where you calculated old adjust as H$50, and how H$78 would be "aggressive legs". Antibody Oct 25, 14:08

Where it would "adjust" (based on old rules) and where it would "delist" are completely separate things. You wrote tomcat90 Oct 25, 14:59

I'm the one who told you the {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:28

I'm the one who told you that adjust does not equal delist. You were long above 70 when you said it had no chance to delist above that? Antibody Oct 25, 15:30

That's what I'm doing, refuting your assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 14:09

Did that work out for you with FIRSM or STAR8? you love to cherry pick to prove your opinions haha {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:00

I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't defend HSX, then we will? {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:12

If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:25

It's easy in hindsight to point to HALW3, when another recent "reboot/sequel" PRED4 bombed. Antibody Oct 25, 15:40

So you're saying I cherry picked haha? The point is, HSX's worth comes from it's predictive abilities and not how much tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:57

"Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release." JSpicoli13 Oct 25, 16:07

The issue is competition, the first one only had to deal with Moana {nm} austpow Oct 25, 13:46





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Company (COMPN) 150000 9.51 (+1.24)          Company (COMPN) 150000 9.51 (+1.24)          Finding Emily (CCEML) 150000 4.25 (-0.11)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 25000 62.45 (+2.58)          Spa Weekend - Opening Weekend (SPAWK.OW) 100000 5.00 (0.00)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Insidious: Out of the Further - (NSID6.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Mutiny - Opening Weekend (MUTNY.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 150000 82.39 (-2.31)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 150000 82.39 (-2.31)          Finding Emily (CCEML) 150000 4.25 (-0.11)          Jungle Cruise 2 (JUNG2) 150000 14.98 (-0.04)          Jungle Cruise 2 (JUNG2) 150000 14.98 (-0.04)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 39999 267.16 (+2.30)          Hercules (HRCUL) 150000 15.12 (-0.04)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 10000 267.16 (+2.30)          Matt Damon (MDAMO) 25000 134.54 (+0.33)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Dustin Hoffman (DHOFF) 25000 75.62 (-0.51)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Logan Marshall-Green (LMARS) 25000 103.20 (+0.66)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 15000 17.31 (+0.25)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Disclosure Day H$105M Blockbuste (SKIES.BW) 15000 11.14 (+0.39)          Sacrifice (SCRIF) 50000 7.07 (+0.08)          Minions & Monsters $155M Blo (MNIO3.BW) 10000 11.71 (+0.57)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 41266 86.91 (+1.06)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Company (COMPN) 50000 9.51 (+1.24)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 5000 6.71 (+0.47)          Company (COMPN) 1 9.51 (+1.24)          Company (COMPN) 25000 9.51 (+1.24)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 843 258.98 (-2.53)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)          The Six Billion Dollar Man (6MILL) 100000 6.22 (0.00)          Cory Michael Smith (CMSMI) 25000 4.10 (+0.10)          Drifter (DRFTR) 1000 4.00 (0.00)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)          NDA (NDA) 50000 8.51 (+0.37)