HSX Forum

Movies

If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just

Posted by: tomcat90 on Oct 25, 15:25 in response to Antibody's post I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't...

having people act like sheep and follow whatever tracking numbers come out and then adjust. For it to truly have "worth", it should have stocks at prices that the masses don't realize are possible long before they come out. For example, I (and many others) have been long HALW3 since it was $1, knowing that if it ever got made, it would be a home run. But once Jamie Lee Curtis got involved, and tidbits about what it would be like came out, the stock should have skyrocketed. Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release. That's less than half of what it would earn just in it's OW. Now wouldn't HSX be worth a LOT more if it had been hovering at $125, for example, a month before it opened? There are some smart people that trade on here, as well as many insiders. You should encourage people to make their case for what something is worth at any point in the release cycle, and let other traders give their feedback into why it is or is not likely. Just having the site react to published guesses from others and creating an atmosphere where people are hesitant to speak up because you will chastise them is not a conducive environment for HSX to thrive. We ALL want it to do well and have value so it stays around and acts like a community of folks who love all things movies. And that's all I have to say about that haha Ā :)

W tracking: [FBST2] One tracker $63 million, another come close to $74.4 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:40

DL tracking: FBST2 $65M-$75M. [WIDOW] $10M-$16M. Antibody Oct 25, 10:41

DL tracking: Ditto for [ISFAM] $10M-$16M. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 10:42

THR: FBST2 $63M-$75M; ISFAM $10 million-$17 million ; WIDOW $10 million-$17 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:48

The first 'Beasts" delisted at a 2.6744 multiple. IF this one matches that, which sequels don't tend to do, it would delist from $168-$200 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 11:58

That's a wrong assumption. TWLI2, HGAM2, LRDR2 did better than the original. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:05

in opening weekend and total box office. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:11

Familiarity breeds the opposite of contempt! {nm} Wilderness_Journey Oct 25, 12:13

Maybe with your cherry picked examples, but what about something more relevant like the first 3 Harry Potter films?2.64 then 2.42, then 2.25 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:36

The point is we don't know yet. FBST2 could open above tracking. You're doing calculations on numbers that hasn't happen yet. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:41

And thus the capitalized word "IF" it performs similarly. Just like I said FIRSM didn't deserve a 4.7 and you compared it to Argo tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:47

How about when you calcuated that CRASN would delist less than H$50? It's about credibility, it's about you making early assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:50

^It's NOT about credibility... {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:51

What? I was long CRASN for the longest time. You sure that was me? although you convinced people to stay in STAR8 tomcat90 Oct 25, 13:12

This whole thread where you calculated old adjust as H$50, and how H$78 would be "aggressive legs". Antibody Oct 25, 14:08

Where it would "adjust" (based on old rules) and where it would "delist" are completely separate things. You wrote tomcat90 Oct 25, 14:59

I'm the one who told you the {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:28

I'm the one who told you that adjust does not equal delist. You were long above 70 when you said it had no chance to delist above that? Antibody Oct 25, 15:30

That's what I'm doing, refuting your assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 14:09

Did that work out for you with FIRSM or STAR8? you love to cherry pick to prove your opinions haha {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:00

I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't defend HSX, then we will? {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:12

If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:25

It's easy in hindsight to point to HALW3, when another recent "reboot/sequel" PRED4 bombed. Antibody Oct 25, 15:40

So you're saying I cherry picked haha? The point is, HSX's worth comes from it's predictive abilities and not how much tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:57

"Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release." JSpicoli13 Oct 25, 16:07

The issue is competition, the first one only had to deal with Moana {nm} austpow Oct 25, 13:46





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 9.23 (-0.30)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 150000 49.17 (-0.42)          NBC: The Fall and Rise of Reggie (FARORD) 25000 9.51 (+1.51)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 9.23 (-0.30)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 133419 71.39 (-0.23)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 6.07 (+0.21)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 6.07 (+0.21)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 100000 236.38 (-1.57)          Grendel (GREND) 150000 14.53 (+0.37)          Grendel (GREND) 150000 14.53 (+0.37)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 100000 236.38 (-1.57)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 79011 105.39 (+1.71)          Dracula (DRALT) 150000 4.00 (+0.21)          Whistle (WHIST) 150000 7.18 (+0.40)          Shiver (SHVER) 150000 63.89 (+6.49)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Solo Mio (SOLOM) 150000 10.27 (-0.37)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 150000 11.91 (-1.42)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 150000 11.91 (-1.42)          The Moment (MOMNT) 6 9.23 (-0.30)          Wishful Thinking (WSHFT) 1000 3.46 (-0.45)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          All You Need Is Kill (AUNIK) 149999 1.96 (-0.05)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 24.93 (+0.24)          The Riders (RIDER) 150000 33.85 (+0.58)          The Riders (RIDER) 100000 33.85 (+0.58)          The Last Adventures Of Constance (CVERT) 150000 0.07 (+0.05)          The Last Adventures Of Constance (CVERT) 150000 0.07 (+0.05)          Mother Nature (MONAT) 150000 0.06 (+0.02)          Mother Nature (MONAT) 150000 0.06 (+0.02)          This Is Not a Test (TINAT) 149999 1.98 (+0.11)          Meet the Barbarians (MTBAR) 150000 0.08 (+0.02)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 9.23 (-0.30)          A Magnificent Life (MLOMP) 150000 1.03 (+0.04)          Shelter (SELTR) 150000 13.34 (+0.54)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 14.16 (+3.11)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 4000 108.97 (-1.62)          A Magnificent Life (MLOMP) 150000 1.03 (+0.04)          A Magnificent Life (MLOMP) 150000 1.03 (+0.04)          Danielle Brooks (DBROO) 25000 98.86 (+0.25)          Wishful Thinking (WSHFT) 150000 3.46 (-0.45)          Wishful Thinking (WSHFT) 150000 3.46 (-0.45)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 27.63 (+1.06)          The Animal Fund (ZOO) 20000 20.05 (+0.12)          Sender (SENDR) 150000 9.06 (-0.67)