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The issue is competition, the first one only had to deal with Moana {nm}

Posted by: austpow on Oct 25, 13:46 in response to Antibody's post W tracking: [FBST2] One tracker $63 million, another...

W tracking: [FBST2] One tracker $63 million, another come close to $74.4 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:40

DL tracking: FBST2 $65M-$75M. [WIDOW] $10M-$16M. Antibody Oct 25, 10:41

DL tracking: Ditto for [ISFAM] $10M-$16M. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 10:42

THR: FBST2 $63M-$75M; ISFAM $10 million-$17 million ; WIDOW $10 million-$17 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:48

The first 'Beasts" delisted at a 2.6744 multiple. IF this one matches that, which sequels don't tend to do, it would delist from $168-$200 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 11:58

That's a wrong assumption. TWLI2, HGAM2, LRDR2 did better than the original. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:05

in opening weekend and total box office. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:11

Familiarity breeds the opposite of contempt! {nm} Wilderness_Journey Oct 25, 12:13

Maybe with your cherry picked examples, but what about something more relevant like the first 3 Harry Potter films?2.64 then 2.42, then 2.25 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:36

The point is we don't know yet. FBST2 could open above tracking. You're doing calculations on numbers that hasn't happen yet. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:41

And thus the capitalized word "IF" it performs similarly. Just like I said FIRSM didn't deserve a 4.7 and you compared it to Argo tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:47

How about when you calcuated that CRASN would delist less than H$50? It's about credibility, it's about you making early assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:50

^It's NOT about credibility... {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:51

What? I was long CRASN for the longest time. You sure that was me? although you convinced people to stay in STAR8 tomcat90 Oct 25, 13:12

This whole thread where you calculated old adjust as H$50, and how H$78 would be "aggressive legs". Antibody Oct 25, 14:08

Where it would "adjust" (based on old rules) and where it would "delist" are completely separate things. You wrote tomcat90 Oct 25, 14:59

I'm the one who told you the {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:28

I'm the one who told you that adjust does not equal delist. You were long above 70 when you said it had no chance to delist above that? Antibody Oct 25, 15:30

That's what I'm doing, refuting your assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 14:09

Did that work out for you with FIRSM or STAR8? you love to cherry pick to prove your opinions haha {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:00

I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't defend HSX, then we will? {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:12

If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:25

It's easy in hindsight to point to HALW3, when another recent "reboot/sequel" PRED4 bombed. Antibody Oct 25, 15:40

So you're saying I cherry picked haha? The point is, HSX's worth comes from it's predictive abilities and not how much tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:57

"Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release." JSpicoli13 Oct 25, 16:07

The issue is competition, the first one only had to deal with Moana austpow Oct 25, 13:46





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