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"Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release."

Posted by: JSpicoli13 on Oct 25, 16:07 in response to tomcat90's post If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to...

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=halloween07.htm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=halloween209.htm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=halloween7.htm

Ok. Traders got this one wrong. I would point to the past 3 of the past 4 Halloweens (I'm not counting Resurection as that movie made little to no sense) to refute any sense of prognostication merely based on the Halloween-franchise name. How come H20 barely crossed $50 million in 1998? That was supposed to be special revisit.

Zombie's film was at the height of the relaunch era, and it failed to achieve much cultural notoriety. The $30 million opening in September 2007 looked good, but the sub $60 million domestic B.O. gross combined with #2 earning barely half as much showed both a lack of nostalgia and a failure of a new director to successfully translate a winning formula.

I'm glad Halloween (2018) has been successful. That said, this is the exception, not the norm.

W tracking: [FBST2] One tracker $63 million, another come close to $74.4 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:40

DL tracking: FBST2 $65M-$75M. [WIDOW] $10M-$16M. Antibody Oct 25, 10:41

DL tracking: Ditto for [ISFAM] $10M-$16M. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 10:42

THR: FBST2 $63M-$75M; ISFAM $10 million-$17 million ; WIDOW $10 million-$17 million Antibody Oct 25, 10:48

The first 'Beasts" delisted at a 2.6744 multiple. IF this one matches that, which sequels don't tend to do, it would delist from $168-$200 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 11:58

That's a wrong assumption. TWLI2, HGAM2, LRDR2 did better than the original. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:05

in opening weekend and total box office. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:11

Familiarity breeds the opposite of contempt! {nm} Wilderness_Journey Oct 25, 12:13

Maybe with your cherry picked examples, but what about something more relevant like the first 3 Harry Potter films?2.64 then 2.42, then 2.25 {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:36

The point is we don't know yet. FBST2 could open above tracking. You're doing calculations on numbers that hasn't happen yet. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:41

And thus the capitalized word "IF" it performs similarly. Just like I said FIRSM didn't deserve a 4.7 and you compared it to Argo tomcat90 Oct 25, 12:47

How about when you calcuated that CRASN would delist less than H$50? It's about credibility, it's about you making early assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:50

^It's NOT about credibility... {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 12:51

What? I was long CRASN for the longest time. You sure that was me? although you convinced people to stay in STAR8 tomcat90 Oct 25, 13:12

This whole thread where you calculated old adjust as H$50, and how H$78 would be "aggressive legs". Antibody Oct 25, 14:08

Where it would "adjust" (based on old rules) and where it would "delist" are completely separate things. You wrote tomcat90 Oct 25, 14:59

I'm the one who told you the {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:28

I'm the one who told you that adjust does not equal delist. You were long above 70 when you said it had no chance to delist above that? Antibody Oct 25, 15:30

That's what I'm doing, refuting your assumptions. {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 14:09

Did that work out for you with FIRSM or STAR8? you love to cherry pick to prove your opinions haha {nm} tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:00

I'm presenting a case for what's possible. If I don't defend HSX, then we will? {nm} Antibody Oct 25, 15:12

If you truly want to defend HSX, then you should want to make it as accurate as possible in it's predictive abilities, and not just tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:25

It's easy in hindsight to point to HALW3, when another recent "reboot/sequel" PRED4 bombed. Antibody Oct 25, 15:40

So you're saying I cherry picked haha? The point is, HSX's worth comes from it's predictive abilities and not how much tomcat90 Oct 25, 15:57

"Instead, it traded at $36 just a month before it's release." JSpicoli13 Oct 25, 16:07

The issue is competition, the first one only had to deal with Moana {nm} austpow Oct 25, 13:46





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The End of Oak Street - Opening (FLWVS.OW) 100 24.89 (-0.40)          Ariana Grande (AGRAN) 1 175.07 (0.00)          Daniel Wu (DWU) 20000 20.64 (+0.10)          Cookie Queens (COKIQ) 55555 1.13 (-0.03)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 25000 62.25 (+2.38)          Chris Sanders (CSAND) 100 178.63 (-0.50)          Bella Thorne (BTHOR) 20000 18.88 (-0.02)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 25000 62.25 (+2.38)          Spa Weekend - Opening Weekend (SPAWK.OW) 100000 5.00 (0.00)          The Bourne Dilemma (BORN6) 45678 90.49 (+0.07)          Insidious: Out of the Further H$ (NSID6.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          One Night Only (ONTON) 150000 22.20 (-0.69)          Gwyneth Paltrow (GPALT) 103 180.23 (0.00)          Cate Blanchett (CBLAN) 23000 15.20 (+0.09)          Insidious: Out of the Further H$ (NSID6.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The End of Oak Street - Opening (FLWVS.OW) 100 24.89 (-0.40)          Oceans (OCEN5) 27333 58.00 (+0.50)          One Night Only (ONTON) 150000 22.20 (-0.69)          Rosebush Pruning (RPRUN) 16667 0.31 (-0.03)          Sofia Boutella (SBOUT) 22874 11.34 (+0.09)          Christopher Miller (CMILL) 100 187.59 (0.00)          Minotaur (MNTUR) 55555 0.68 (0.00)          Jessica Rothe (JROTH) 24000 9.65 (+0.09)          Mutiny - Opening Weekend (MUTNY.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Company (COMPN) 150000 9.66 (+1.39)          Mutiny H$10 Put (MUTNY.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Super Troopers 3 H$15 Call (STRO3.CA) 100 0.82 (-0.10)          Jude Law (JLAW) 25000 18.93 (-1.16)          Drummer Boy (DRUMB) 112344 9.76 (-0.01)          Riz Ahmed (RAHME) 23500 6.92 (+0.04)          Jude Law (JLAW) 25000 18.93 (-1.16)          Mutiny H$10 Call (MUTNY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Super Troopers 3 H$15 Call (STRO3.CA) 100 0.82 (-0.10)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Rebel Wilson (RBWIL) 24479 15.50 (-0.11)          One Night Only H$10 Call (ONTON.CA) 100 0.64 (-0.22)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 25000 62.25 (+2.38)          Michael Chiklis (MCHIK) 24900 9.72 (+0.04)          Jon Hamm (JHAMM) 25000 62.25 (+2.38)          Drifter (DRFTR) 25000 4.00 (0.00)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 40000 86.89 (+1.04)          Emily Watson (EWATS) 20000 5.51 (+0.04)          One Night Only H$10 Call (ONTON.CA) 100 0.64 (-0.22)          Jemaine Clement (JCLEM) 25000 132.65 (+1.29)          Jemaine Clement (JCLEM) 25000 132.65 (+1.29)          Julianne Moore (JMOOR) 21728 9.43 (+0.09)          Matthias Schoenaerts (MSCHO) 25000 20.76 (0.00)          Lena Headey (LHEAD) 24950 8.70 (-0.01)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 115663 50.85 (+1.91)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 14.09 (-0.09)