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This is how I estimate D24 BO - for Peter453 (in case your Q was for me)
Firstly I think your $180m D3 is quite close to where I'd put it myself.. thinking 175-185m range.
For the past 3-4 years I've estimated D24 BO as ~2X of D7 BO for Blockbuster/big wide release movies (2K+ screens). In 2018-19 initially that's what I observed as happening & its served me well (usually off by max ~10-15% either way depending on the movie/franchise) probably because it incorporates some data of both weekdays & weekend as opposed to just a weekend. It also allows me to see which movies are likely to have a better hold (I give this more credence than previous franchise history).
Now as for Avatar 2 I've agreed above it should have a better hold than most blockbusters (core demographics also matter). I see 180-185m D3 translate to ~ 225-230m D7 which by my formula would give ~450-460m D24. Even with a better hold I see it around 475-480m max by D24. Of course if it does 200m+ D3 its likely to go close to the 518m where the stock's currently hovering but I consider that unlikely. However this movie could hold beyond D24 more like TG2 (though I don't think this sequel is going to be that good) but that's irrelevant to our game.
One caveat - I've noticed post pandemic - last 12-15 months - mostly the formula adjusts lower - D24 = 1.8 to 1.9 D3 not 2x, sometimes even lower (which is worrying for the theatre biz overall).
There - I've also given away what's worked for me the last 4 years here! Hope it helps some other peeps.
11.72 million in Chinese presales for Avatar 2 as of yesterday Dec 10, 09:39
Jatinder oddly quiet {nm} Dec 10, 09:42
DL: Avatar: The Way of Water set to conquer all business next weekend with a potential $200M domestic start Dec 10, 11:28
Seems like a bit of a throwaway comment by Deadline but who knows {nm} Dec 10, 11:29
Best of 2022 DRST2 Day 3 ~188m Day 24 ~411m, even with 200m D3 & a better hold + Christmas/NY, 517m D24 looks unlikely Dec 10, 11:40
Your comparing DS2 hold with Avatar 2? I really dont think its comparable at all {nm} Dec 10, 11:48
Superhero movies are very very frontloaded these days. Avatar 2 will not play out that way. {nm} Dec 10, 11:49
Luiz Fernando: Avatar 2 15M pre sales in China, 2x F9 (which did 136M OW in China) Dec 10, 12:09
Only because of the holidays... but I also think that will keep it from opening over $200 million. Dec 10, 12:43
What are you thinking for OW and 24 day total? I think 180/650 at this stage for me {nm} Dec 10, 12:16
This is how I estimate D24 BO - for Peter453 (in case your Q was for me) Dec 11, 08:12
Of course what happens in the game (like stock markets) often isnt related to how the movie will do Dec 11, 08:24
517/200= 2.58 which is very doable for the holiday season. {nm} Dec 10, 13:38
That's a reply to Tallwonder {nm} Dec 11, 07:41