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CelebStock and StarBonds

perfect example of the flaw with droi

Posted by: RazorHawk on Apr 26, 15:21 in response to islander's post bond1=best

droi = current price/expected adjust price/duration


droi uses a formula with these three principles to get a mathmatical rating about how good an investment is compared to the mathmatical rating of all other available investments.


the correct answer to mrbinns quiz is .... (to use a quote 'My Cousin Vinny'):  "There is no answer because it's a bulls**t question."


mrbinns gave you price and expected adjust, but not duration. 


that is the biggest flaw with droi.  You need all three pieces in order to get a mathmatical rating.  If you are missing on of the three pieces, then you must make your own estimate to fill in the blank and then your droi is flawed because it is now based on your guesses instead of mathmatics.

the only time droi truely works is when all three pieces are known.  When The Hunger Games passed $250mill then droi was available.  We knew the current prices of attached starbonds.  We knew the adjust date and we knew the expected adjust amount.  Then players could know what the droi was and invest accordingly. 

TV Stocks offer droi.  We know how many episodes are ordered, what the current stock price is, and the timeframe that they will delist.

What is the droi for Will Smith's next adjust for Men In Black 3?  We know his current stock price, we know the adjust date, but will Men In Black 3 be a hit and make 250 or be a dud and delist at 125?  We currently do now know.  There is no way to droi it.

What do droi people do when a movie changes release dates?  The droi changed yesterday for 47 Ronin and all attached starbonds because it got pushed back a few months.  The droi changed yesterday for One Shot and all attached starbonds because it got pushed up a few months.  How often are droi-ers suppost to do the calculations and compare the mathmatical ratings? Monthly? Weekly? Daily? By The Hour? By The Minute?


When droi-ers do not have all three pieces they simply do what a majority of players do... guess the missing piece and make investments based off of their guesses.  Most of the time, there is always a piece missing.

I found an interesting example of why context is needed wth respect to the Post Adjust Bond Show, with respect to dROI.... Buy StarBond Fund 18 Apr 26, 12:46

bond1=best islander Apr 26, 12:48

perfect example of the flaw with droi RazorHawk Apr 26, 15:21

Like every other factor in making Starbond investments, dROI is a tool that can be used and/or ignored by traders as appropriate. RogerMore Apr 26, 17:48

This was not meant as a criticism of your hard work. Only to point out context necessary to make good use of it. mrbinns Apr 26, 20:15

um... (don't know what to put here ~ again) RHAWK Apr 26, 21:48

Um..How can we search for Fembot's thoughts on trading? {nm} dioneta Apr 27, 14:53

um... RHAWK Apr 26, 20:50

I suppose it depends what your definition of fun is. RogerMore Apr 26, 23:07

"If It Makes You Happy.... RHAWK Apr 27, 09:04

half of my message is missing :( {nm} RHAWK Apr 27, 09:05

Hmmm... if you don't day-trade and you don't use dROI, what Starbond tool do you use? RogerMore Apr 27, 10:09

he says they're attached to the same movie, so surely they adjust over the same period {nm} Jane_Citizen Apr 27, 00:35

um... RHAWK Apr 27, 08:20

to wit: Jane_Citizen Apr 28, 19:08

No {nm} RHAWK Apr 29, 09:47

Yes, for the purposes of comparing the three examples it is. {nm} Jane_Citizen Apr 30, 17:34

no it isn't... RHAWK Apr 30, 20:18

Answers...(no fair peeking until you have an answer written down) Buy StarBond Fund 18 Apr 26, 12:52

Fantastic debate between some of the heavy hitters! srrichardson Apr 26, 23:07

In my experience, actual dROI (rather than calculated dROI) is larger for movies that have a higher next adjust over a span of 3 days. PRodQuanta Apr 27, 11:08

Implying that I actually use a mix of both investment strategies and it works great. Thanks to both of you. {nm} PRodQuanta Apr 27, 11:10

Heh - I thought I knew what you meant until I read your IM. {nm} RogerMore Apr 27, 13:28

I am not sure what you mean because your terminology is off....BUT Buy StarBond Fund 18 Apr 27, 20:33

I'm assuming dROI is daily Return On Investment (this very well could be wrong, I haven't checked). My explanation is inside PRodQuanta Apr 28, 09:13

This excludes any bounce phenomena {nm} PRodQuanta Apr 28, 09:31

This is known as the Bounce. It's something that mrbinns (in particular) does very well, and I assume it's what Razorhawk does also. RogerMore Apr 28, 09:39

(Oh actually, it's not the Bounce - but I think my IM still has it) {nm} RogerMore Apr 28, 09:41

Yes, I believe you have the gist. Playing the players/the bounce is somewhat different. It boils down to dROI ~ 1.5ROI in first ~1.5 days. {nm} PRodQuanta Apr 28, 10:28

I'd short all 3. If they become popular, you can sell at the estimated delist early, otherwise, you will at least cover the 2%, likely more {nm} arf Apr 28, 22:41





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