ANNOUNCEMENT: Blockbuster Warrants let you profit from the long-term box office success of the biggest movies.

HSX Forums: Movies Board






I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?

Posted by: Facto on May 01, 19:18 in response to secretstalker's post You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd...

I also remember that time you mentioned all your female friends were going to see a movie, and I still wasn't convinved, but it was a success. So, it goes both ways. We all just have to remember that there's no golden rule that says that all kiddie flicks and women's movies will do better than what the exchange expects - cause we've seen enough examples that sometimes they really don't...

RS: [THOR] high 50s, [JUMPB] 10 million, [STBRW] high single digits {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:46

[BRDSM] low 20s [PRIEST] slightly higher low 20s [PIRT4] 100 million [HNOV2] mid-to-high 80s 5 day [PAND2] 120 mil 5 day {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:48

Here's my wild guess that MTC will be higher on THOR and BRDSM, and lower on Priest. Now, let's put wild guesses to the test.   Facto on May 01, 18:58

But it's surely...   second gary on May 01, 20:34

Hmm.. Although, Boxoffice.com has predicted a 95M OW for it, iirc? {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:39

Yes, but there's no comment there on the 4-day / 5-day question.   second gary on May 01, 20:49

Hmmm... Very interesting, thanks {nm}   Facto on May 01, 20:54

Huh. Hangover and Panda are opening on Thursday? What's that multiplier then, Thursday + (2.2 * 4-day weekend)? {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:13

Yes {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

Argh, weekends like that make by brain hurt. {nm}   ty97 on May 01, 19:33

Boxoffice.com also did not have high expectations for STBRW or JUMPB, calling them "modest romantic comedies" (iirc). {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:54

Pretty sure STBRW will do better than that. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:54

Why? You don't state any reasons - BoxOffice.Com said something as to why they think it won't do much business :-) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 18:56

I don't think so. Twitter has missed lately, but it's quite reliable in predicting underperformers with low tweet counts. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 18:57

yeah the young woman fanbase of the book is INTENSE {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:57

two wedding comedies have never opened against each other different demo or not {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 18:59

And then Bridesmaids follows the week after. Talk about wedding overload! {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:00

.. but, just to play devil's advocate, it *is* wedding season, no.. ? :-)   Facto on May 01, 20:03

There's a book? :) {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 18:59

irony, right?   Facto on May 01, 19:00

(and I am of course not talking about notfabio!) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:06

naw. kate hudson is played out and no one knows who the other one even is {nm}   islander on May 01, 18:58

Yup, even in 2003, DVORC did 9M full run.. "Le Divorce is a wacky romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts." {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:04

that wasnt given even a moderate push domestically and a terrible title {nm}   notfabio on May 01, 19:07

Sure, but it had Kate Hudson on the posters and marquees.. And Something Borrowed is expected to do at least double.   Facto on May 01, 19:09

MBFSG, Oct 2008 delist of 18.75: "Dane Cook and Kate Hudson star in the romantic comedy [My Best Friend's Girl].... " {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:19

Then again, Bride Wars of course delisted at 53.89 February 2009. But was that due to a snappy title and Anne Hathaway (fresh from The Devil   Facto on May 01, 19:11

stbrw also plain, generic, terrible title. bet 5 h-bucks at least one review will lead with "Soemthing Boring" {nm}   islander on May 01, 19:12

Heh :-) "Something boring, snored all through" {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:13

yeah it's pretty bland-looking   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:54

I think it looks dreadful   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:23

Thanks! ;-) What would you say were your favourite "women's movies/chick flicks" of the last 5 years? Devil Wears Prada, for instance?   Facto on May 01, 19:28

I suppose it pushes a 'meek inheriting the earth' button   jane_citizen on May 01, 19:51

I honestly don't know how STBRW could open worse than MADE OF HONOR in the same frame. {nm}   dsbman on May 01, 18:57

Bingo... the advertising for STBRW has been better and more prevalent even though I'm sure it's just as bad. {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:01

We'll find out (if and when it happens, next weekend ;)) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:01

The BOM poll for STBRW is already starting out markedly weaker, which is a poor sign. {nm}   Rolling_Thunder on May 01, 19:04

You can't judge women's movies based on BOM Polls... I'd be shocked if they had more than 4 women responding {nm}   secretstalker on May 01, 19:14

I'm not 100% sure, but feel that I recall that you have overestimated at least a couple women's movies, making similar sounding points?   Facto on May 01, 19:18

If those 4 women answer every womens movie poll on BOM something can be gleaned from it via comparison. {nm}   BionicMoron on May 01, 19:29

actually, *something* fruitful has to come out of the hours I've wasted surfing twitter, and this is it: There are *plenty* of women on Twit   Facto on May 01, 19:34

(snark;) {nm}   Facto on May 01, 23:24

agreed   jane_citizen on May 01, 20:07

So, RS amended numbers. They used to be low 50's for THOR, mid teens for Borrowed and low double digits for Jumping.   PVL Admin on May 01, 19:40

Borrowed and Broom heading south - and in line with BoxOffice.com's predictions. So, MTC should be lower - but we'll see. {nm}   Facto on May 01, 19:42

Those are pretty weak numbers for Thor... it opened 82 million world wide... and no one knows about Thor outside america..   b4bad on May 01, 20:41

No way! The bark-o-meter has it lower than Fast5. More to follow later in the week. {nm}   PVL Admin on May 01, 20:54

Thor has more oversea appeal {nm}   xiayun on May 01, 21:01

Now that's just crazy talk...    Facto on May 01, 22:44

I'd suggest Thors Australian popularity is more to do with the fact Chris Hemsworth rose to fame playing a key role    osmosis2003 on May 01, 22:45

makes a lot of sense. Not much love for Thor from the Germans, though - perhaps they remember their previous führer that dug Norse mythology {nm}   Facto on May 02, 00:56

fuhrer/leader - Hitler dug Norse mythology, iirc, as did his favourite composer Richard Wagner ("March of the Valkyries", used in Star Wars,   Facto on May 02, 00:58





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Cantor Exchange
Michael Bay (MBAY) 20000 203.88 (-1.50)         Michael Bay (MBAY) 20000 203.88 (-1.50)         Hansel and Gretel 2 (HNGW2) 100000 25.40 (+0.63)         22 Jump Street $150M Blockbuster (21JS2.BW) 20000 14.99 (+0.03)         Maleficent $180M Blockbuster War (MALEF.BW) 20000 21.42 (+0.06)         A Long Way Down (ALWDN) 100000 0.02 (-0.04)         A Long Way Down (ALWDN) 50000 0.02 (-0.04)         A Long Way Down (ALWDN) 50000 0.02 (-0.04)         Bailout (BLOUT) 100000 0.12 (-0.03)         Kevin Spacey (KSPAC) 20000 32.08 (+0.80)         The Croods 2 (CROD2) 100000 63.22 (-0.13)         Tom Felton (TFELT) 20000 89.56 (+1.05)         Sandman (SANDM) 75000 43.50 (-3.23)         Very Good Girls (VGGRL) 1000 0.36 (0.00)         Kojak (KOJAK) 100000 18.77 (+0.66)         Me Him Her (MHHER) 100000 7.52 (-0.48)         Baby Driver (BDRIV) 1 6.82 (-1.03)         Michael Bay (MBAY) 20000 203.88 (-1.50)         Pixels (PIXEL) 72775 63.87 (+0.09)         Baby Driver (BDRIV) 100000 6.82 (-1.03)         A Long Way Down (ALWDN) 100000 0.02 (-0.04)         Untitled Cold War Thriller (CLDWR) 50000 58.22 (+1.27)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 33.56 (-1.15)         The Black Hole (BHOLE) 1 6.39 (-0.02)         Me Him Her (MHHER) 100000 7.52 (-0.48)         The Black Hole (BHOLE) 1 6.39 (-0.02)         The Disappointments Room (DSPRM) 100000 12.12 (+0.53)         Timeless (TMLES) 100000 3.82 (+0.88)         Men, Women & Children (MWCHL) 1 9.48 (0.00)         Timeless (TMLES) 5 3.82 (+0.88)         The Vatican Tapes (VATAP) 100000 18.62 (+0.05)         Lullaby (LULBY) 100000 0.01 (-0.01)         The Keeping Room (KPNRM) 4003 2.79 (+0.34)         Fast & Furious 7 (FAST7) 92000 236.22 (+0.31)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 33.56 (-1.15)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 33.56 (-1.15)         Sandman (SANDM) 25000 43.50 (-3.23)         Judy Greer (JGREE) 2 46.52 (-0.26)         Seventh Son (SPKAP) 100000 18.68 (-0.08)         Joseph Fiennes (JFIEN) 1 9.57 (0.00)         Amy Ryan (AMRYA) 20000 12.11 (-0.04)         Thomas Brodie-Sangster (TSANG) 20000 11.95 (-0.08)         The Keeping Room (KPNRM) 100000 2.79 (+0.34)         Ant-Man (ANTMN) 147 108.04 (0.00)         Dave Bautista (DBAUT) 1 35.70 (0.00)         Timeless (TMLES) 100000 3.82 (+0.88)         The 5th Wave (5WAVE) 100000 35.73 (+0.97)         The 5th Wave (5WAVE) 26000 35.73 (+0.97)         Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (APES2) 100000 188.25 (+0.45)         Gugu Mbatha-Raw (GMBAT) 20000 15.69 (+0.35)