HSX Forum

Movies

Pretty much agreed. I get the desire to be conservative here, but there's a reason no movie has opened over $80 million in Dec: because

Posted by: ShawnMR on Nov 13, 18:56 in response to thatpj's post Why do people always talk about runtimes?

nothing this big has released in December in nine years. Let's exercise caution where needed, but not pretend that $80 million is the ceiling and $100+ million is unreasonable. Its far, far from it. If it plays more like a widely anticipated blockbuster (ala Avengers, TDKR, Hunger Games, Potter, etc.) then we're talking at least $110-120 million.

Now if the expectation is for a weak market and/or little interest from mainstream audiences in the movie, then $80 million starts to make sense. But that kind of a number needs both sides of the argument to back it up. If $130+ million is bullish, then $70-80 million is - at least somewhat bearish.

Why is Hobbit dropping like a rock in a pond the exchange!? geckoidol Nov 12, 21:12

(sadly shaking my head) I've had to erase what I started to type, several times. {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Nov 12, 21:41

You need to keep up with current events and not pop in once a week to ask why your stock is going in a direction you don't like. {nm} PVL Admin Nov 12, 21:53

I check in every day. I look at the news associated with HOBBIT. I found nothing new. What am I missing? {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 21:59

Every day, you say? You need to pay A LOT closer attention then... see IM These are not short threads! PVL Admin Nov 12, 22:06

Go back at least the last 10 pages, as this one has been brought up many times. Also see me answer below. Regards Gavin {nm} Gavin Nov 12, 22:08

I suspect he's too busy keeping lean and mean.. :-) {nm} Facto Nov 12, 23:13

Idol, the thing is that all three sneaky little hobbitzesss were priced as if they were July openers, but then someone reminded the exchange Facto Nov 12, 23:16

That's not case either as Hobbit 3, opening in July is also dropping like a rock {nm} thatpj Nov 13, 11:14

Agreed, the people dumping that one are either fools or need the cash for other near-term investments {nm} BSmurf Nov 13, 11:43

These day traders and idiots swear this movie will bomb with only an $80M opening, I say, "Nay!" However, you should know how to play the He was robbing me, raping me! Nov 13, 09:36

Geckoidol! {nm} Facto Nov 12, 21:53

Good question. It is dropping because enough traders believe that it cannot open to anymore then $80 because no other movie in history has.. Gavin Nov 12, 22:05

Guys thanks. geckoidol Nov 12, 22:12

My earnings that I posted are YTD from 1/1/2012. {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 22:13

NOT a good question. Hours later, so now, I will comment... edzep - Port Monkey! Nov 13, 04:10

Maybe It is Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn stock effect!! {nm} mike255 Nov 12, 22:16

another reason and this is only a maybe is that some ports may be dumping stocks like HOBBIT to buy TWLI5, and then this has a flow on... Gavin Nov 12, 22:23

um..lol I dumped JB23 so I can buy TWLI5. Makes sense. {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 22:34

Seriously, I have oceanfront property in the himalayas to sell you. {nm} He was robbing me, raping me! Nov 13, 10:01

Skyfall is taking a beating on sell off!! {nm} mike255 Nov 12, 22:33

Who ever shorted the stock is banking!!! geckoidol Nov 12, 22:40

Again!!! Don't talk about current stock movements. {nm} PVL Admin Nov 13, 16:25

In a galaxy, far, far away, there are no Hobitses to be found. There is, however a Jedi that looks suspiciously, like Golem. {nm} elchan Nov 13, 07:10

The short answer is that many expect it to drop severely in upfront interest from LOTR. Several sites are predicting ~ $80m for the opening, ShawnMR Nov 13, 08:58

Math: BSmurf Nov 13, 10:33

Why do people always talk about runtimes? thatpj Nov 13, 11:20

Avengers: 2h 22m - opened in summer. Titanic did not make spectacular numbers EVER. Just steady $20M gains for weeks and weeks. BSmurf Nov 13, 11:35

And: BSmurf Nov 13, 11:42

Pretty much agreed. I get the desire to be conservative here, but there's a reason no movie has opened over $80 million in Dec: because ShawnMR Nov 13, 18:56

ROTK was 3 hrs 20 minutes and posted the 7th biggest OW in history back in 2003 -- all without opening on Friday. {nm} ShawnMR Nov 13, 18:49





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Wife and Dog (WIFDG) 5000 16.77 (-0.05)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          K-Pop: The Debut (KPOPM) 5000 38.94 (-0.09)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 162 61.80 (+1.92)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Mosquito Bowl (MSQTB) 150000 2.49 (-0.08)          Obey (OBEY) 20047 21.35 (-0.05)          Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 150000 46.84 (+0.14)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Breeder (BREDR) 150000 1.88 (+0.02)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Call (HTRAB.CA) 25000 1.85 (-0.19)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 2392 193.28 (-0.07)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 1408 73.48 (+0.01)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 59.34 (-1.59)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 59.34 (-1.59)          Ramayana - Opening Weekend (RAMAY.OW) 100000 6.37 (+0.16)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Ramayana - Opening Weekend (RAMAY.OW) 100000 6.37 (+0.16)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          Molepeople (MOLEP) 25000 23.01 (+0.83)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.20 (+0.92)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 150000 2.83 (-1.73)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 59.34 (-1.59)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 59.34 (-1.59)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 3000 193.28 (-0.07)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 33.76 (+3.68)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 33.76 (+3.68)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 3000 52.22 (-0.05)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 4.12 (+1.85)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Last Photograph (LPHOT) 150000 1.95 (+0.02)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Anything But Ghosts (ANYBG) 3000 35.12 (-0.19)          The Cat in the Hat H$40 Put (TCATH.PU) 25000 4.24 (-0.07)          The Cat in the Hat - Opening Wee (TCATH.OW) 100000 33.28 (-0.83)          F.A.S.T. (FAST) 3000 49.17 (+0.09)          The Cat in the Hat - Opening Wee (TCATH.OW) 100000 33.28 (-0.83)          The Catch (TCATC) 3000 81.83 (+0.30)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 3000 46.85 (-0.05)