HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The short answer is that many expect it to drop severely in upfront interest from LOTR. Several sites are predicting ~ $80m for the opening,
...which is fair enough but the argument of there not being any previous December openers over that mark still misses out on the fact that December hasn't seen this large of an anticipated release since 2003 -- when Return of the King itself nearly hit $80 million despite opening on Wednesday.
The Hobbit opens on Friday (more weekend demand), has nine years of inflation on its side, and has 3D + IMAX surcharges to boot.
Add on to that the fact that Avatar nearly hit the $80m mark despite being an original film with less built-in appeal before its word of mouth kicked in, and you get a strong likelihood that The Hobbit opens way north of $80 million.
As is, an $80 million opening for The Hobbit would mean fewer tickets sold on opening weekend than I Am Legend or Avatar. For any following the buzz and anticipation over the film, that's a risky proposition when considering the goodwill the flick has from LOTR and half a century's worth of older fans.
Not saying its impossible - and it WOULD set the December record - but its just the market's way of playing it safe on the film. If you think it will blow past that, do as the rest of us do and trade accordingly. ;)
Why is Hobbit dropping like a rock in a pond the exchange!? Nov 12, 21:12
(sadly shaking my head) I've had to erase what I started to type, several times. {nm} Nov 12, 21:41
I check in every day. I look at the news associated with HOBBIT. I found nothing new. What am I missing? {nm} Nov 12, 21:59
Every day, you say? You need to pay A LOT closer attention then... see IM These are not short threads! Nov 12, 22:06
Go back at least the last 10 pages, as this one has been brought up many times. Also see me answer below. Regards Gavin {nm} Nov 12, 22:08
I suspect he's too busy keeping lean and mean.. :-) {nm} Nov 12, 23:13
That's not case either as Hobbit 3, opening in July is also dropping like a rock {nm} Nov 13, 11:14
Agreed, the people dumping that one are either fools or need the cash for other near-term investments {nm} Nov 13, 11:43
Geckoidol! {nm} Nov 12, 21:53
Guys thanks. Nov 12, 22:12
My earnings that I posted are YTD from 1/1/2012. {nm} Nov 12, 22:13
NOT a good question. Hours later, so now, I will comment... Nov 13, 04:10
Maybe It is Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn stock effect!! {nm} Nov 12, 22:16
um..lol I dumped JB23 so I can buy TWLI5. Makes sense. {nm} Nov 12, 22:34
Seriously, I have oceanfront property in the himalayas to sell you. {nm} Nov 13, 10:01
Skyfall is taking a beating on sell off!! {nm} Nov 12, 22:33
Who ever shorted the stock is banking!!! Nov 12, 22:40
Again!!! Don't talk about current stock movements. {nm} Nov 13, 16:25
The short answer is that many expect it to drop severely in upfront interest from LOTR. Several sites are predicting ~ $80m for the opening, Nov 13, 08:58
Math: Nov 13, 10:33
Why do people always talk about runtimes? Nov 13, 11:20
And: Nov 13, 11:42
ROTK was 3 hrs 20 minutes and posted the 7th biggest OW in history back in 2003 -- all without opening on Friday. {nm} Nov 13, 18:49