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Math:

Posted by: BSmurf on Nov 13, 10:33 in response to ShawnMR's post The short answer is that many expect it to drop severely...

According to the price at the time of this posting of Hobbit1, it woud have to do almost $107M the first weekend to reach current price ($288M and change) -- $27M more than any other film ever has in Dec, and it's a non-holiday weekend of a 3 hour film (fewer potential showings per day).

I'm not saying that it won't/can't open the best of any Dec opener, but it will be a struggle. I'm positive long-term it will easily achieve those prices, but we're only dealing with the opening weekend right now. Choose your investments accordingly.

Why is Hobbit dropping like a rock in a pond the exchange!? geckoidol Nov 12, 21:12

(sadly shaking my head) I've had to erase what I started to type, several times. {nm} edzep - Port Monkey! Nov 12, 21:41

You need to keep up with current events and not pop in once a week to ask why your stock is going in a direction you don't like. {nm} PVL Admin Nov 12, 21:53

I check in every day. I look at the news associated with HOBBIT. I found nothing new. What am I missing? {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 21:59

Every day, you say? You need to pay A LOT closer attention then... see IM These are not short threads! PVL Admin Nov 12, 22:06

Go back at least the last 10 pages, as this one has been brought up many times. Also see me answer below. Regards Gavin {nm} Gavin Nov 12, 22:08

I suspect he's too busy keeping lean and mean.. :-) {nm} Facto Nov 12, 23:13

Idol, the thing is that all three sneaky little hobbitzesss were priced as if they were July openers, but then someone reminded the exchange Facto Nov 12, 23:16

That's not case either as Hobbit 3, opening in July is also dropping like a rock {nm} thatpj Nov 13, 11:14

Agreed, the people dumping that one are either fools or need the cash for other near-term investments {nm} BSmurf Nov 13, 11:43

These day traders and idiots swear this movie will bomb with only an $80M opening, I say, "Nay!" However, you should know how to play the He was robbing me, raping me! Nov 13, 09:36

Geckoidol! {nm} Facto Nov 12, 21:53

Good question. It is dropping because enough traders believe that it cannot open to anymore then $80 because no other movie in history has.. Gavin Nov 12, 22:05

Guys thanks. geckoidol Nov 12, 22:12

My earnings that I posted are YTD from 1/1/2012. {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 22:13

NOT a good question. Hours later, so now, I will comment... edzep - Port Monkey! Nov 13, 04:10

Maybe It is Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn stock effect!! {nm} mike255 Nov 12, 22:16

another reason and this is only a maybe is that some ports may be dumping stocks like HOBBIT to buy TWLI5, and then this has a flow on... Gavin Nov 12, 22:23

um..lol I dumped JB23 so I can buy TWLI5. Makes sense. {nm} geckoidol Nov 12, 22:34

Seriously, I have oceanfront property in the himalayas to sell you. {nm} He was robbing me, raping me! Nov 13, 10:01

Skyfall is taking a beating on sell off!! {nm} mike255 Nov 12, 22:33

Who ever shorted the stock is banking!!! geckoidol Nov 12, 22:40

Again!!! Don't talk about current stock movements. {nm} PVL Admin Nov 13, 16:25

In a galaxy, far, far away, there are no Hobitses to be found. There is, however a Jedi that looks suspiciously, like Golem. {nm} elchan Nov 13, 07:10

The short answer is that many expect it to drop severely in upfront interest from LOTR. Several sites are predicting ~ $80m for the opening, ShawnMR Nov 13, 08:58

Math: BSmurf Nov 13, 10:33

Why do people always talk about runtimes? thatpj Nov 13, 11:20

Avengers: 2h 22m - opened in summer. Titanic did not make spectacular numbers EVER. Just steady $20M gains for weeks and weeks. BSmurf Nov 13, 11:35

And: BSmurf Nov 13, 11:42

Pretty much agreed. I get the desire to be conservative here, but there's a reason no movie has opened over $80 million in Dec: because ShawnMR Nov 13, 18:56

ROTK was 3 hrs 20 minutes and posted the 7th biggest OW in history back in 2003 -- all without opening on Friday. {nm} ShawnMR Nov 13, 18:49





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