HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly...
is -- a weighted average of largely groupthink predictions drinking from the same "tracking" and other early prediction wells, with random boneheadedness depending on the kinds of movies involved any given week.
Take a look at the SOGOD page, specifically its chart. Back on February 9, three weeks ago, the price was just over $30 and today it adjusted to just over double that. We here at HSX were, collectively, completely out to lunch. Whatever "closeness" HSX had at the end was due in no small part part to allowing trading after hard info comes in.
In MTC's case, theirs is probably one of the earliest predictions (along with boxoffice.com) and it perhaps gives them a greater excuse for being wrong. But it can also affect everyone else being wrong until the actual numbers start coming in. *shrug*
Not to say your average or weighted average approach isn't better than nothing.
3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) Mar 02, 07:33
Non-Stop - 30 mill Mar 02, 07:35
The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations Mar 02, 07:44
Son Of God - 26.5 mill Mar 02, 07:45
The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) Mar 02, 07:57
ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location Mar 02, 08:05
The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations Mar 02, 08:09
ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." Mar 02, 08:15
Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? Mar 02, 11:50
Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% Mar 02, 08:25
What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. Mar 02, 10:19
This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} Mar 02, 10:28
The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... Mar 02, 10:41
Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) Mar 02, 11:28
What about this Mar 02, 11:58
Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Mar 02, 08:42