HSX Forum

Movies

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO.

Posted by: elchan2012 on Mar 02, 10:19 in response to elchan2012's post The regression model will account for the boneheadedness....

Regression basically finds a function that will map inputs to outputs. Ā (evidence to hypothesis)

The concept of dependent and independent variables is somewhat restrictive.

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 25000 8.71 (-0.05)          Christian Slater (CSLAT) 25000 11.26 (+0.10)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Andrea Riseborough (ARISE) 25000 8.03 (+0.10)          Wicker (WCKER) 150000 20.78 (+1.79)          Wicker (WCKER) 150000 20.78 (+1.79)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Turpentine (TURPN) 20000 6.66 (-0.60)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.80 (+1.53)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.80 (+1.53)          Zachary Levi (ZLEVI) 25000 13.18 (-0.20)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Call (HTRAB.CA) 25000 1.91 (-0.13)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Tommy Lee Jones (TLJON) 25000 12.24 (+0.20)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 14274 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 1 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 3000 100.00 (0.00)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 55.71 (+0.05)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 10000 164.73 (+0.02)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 1 100.00 (0.00)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 150000 9.71 (-0.06)          Nasty (NASTY) 150000 16.84 (+1.68)          Godzilla Minus Zero (GODM2) 10000 80.47 (-0.96)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 200 3.79 (-0.77)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 100 61.80 (+1.92)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 15417 100.00 (0.00)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.80 (+1.53)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 12454 126.30 (+0.01)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.80 (+1.53)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 2081 100.00 (0.00)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 27027 0.27 (0.00)          How to Rob a Bank - Opening Week (HTRAB.OW) 11787 13.94 (-0.34)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Call (HTRAB.CA) 25000 1.91 (-0.13)          Narnia: The Magician's Neph (NARN4) 5000 43.43 (-0.02)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 1.78 (+0.50)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 4934 0.27 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 1.78 (+0.50)          The Further Mis-Adventures of Cl (TAOCB) 150000 15.95 (-0.36)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 1.78 (+0.50)