HSX Forum

Movies

What about this

Posted by: KurtPilo on Mar 02, 11:58 in response to GMov's post The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an...

Shouldn't the OW be regressed on variables such as genre, rating, budget, month, TAG of director, TAG of actors, oscar wins and nominations by cast, etc

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Conjuring Prequel (CNJU5) 50000 89.46 (+0.47)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 6.20 (+1.39)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 23.79 (-0.02)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 6543 474.48 (-0.31)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 429.15 (-10.01)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 429.15 (-10.01)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 5360 63.88 (-1.34)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 50000 40.67 (-2.74)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Bando Stone & The New World (BSTNW) 150000 0.29 (+0.02)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Marty Supreme (MRTSU) 150000 37.05 (+0.86)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 150000 25.23 (+0.03)          I Was a Stranger (TSCAS) 150000 3.57 (+0.18)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 429.15 (-10.01)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 23.79 (-0.02)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 429.15 (-10.01)          It Was Just An Accident (IWJAA) 150000 1.58 (+0.02)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 37 63.88 (-1.34)          Denis Villeneuve (DVILL) 25000 127.14 (+0.33)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 100000 249.27 (-2.27)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.87 (+0.16)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Tom & Jerry (TMJR2) 150000 26.66 (-0.33)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Tom & Jerry (TMJR2) 150000 26.66 (-0.33)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 750 6.20 (+1.39)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 4500 10.59 (+1.07)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 77777 429.15 (-10.01)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Jack of Spades (JACSP) 150000 8.63 (-0.11)          Jack of Spades (JACSP) 150000 8.63 (-0.11)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 123456 69.47 (-1.51)          Fellowship (FELWS) 7500 13.99 (-1.01)          Boy Band (BOYBN) 150000 22.04 (-0.20)          Boy Band (BOYBN) 150000 22.04 (-0.20)          The Last Witch Hunter 2 (TLWH2) 100000 17.65 (-0.20)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 62023 6.20 (+1.39)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 53539 293.90 (-0.23)          The Last Witch Hunter 2 (TLWH2) 5000 17.65 (-0.20)          Michael (MJACK) 96463 163.34 (+0.20)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 429.15 (-10.01)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)