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What about this

Posted by: KurtPilo on Mar 02, 11:58 in response to GMov's post The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an...

Shouldn't the OW be regressed on variables such as genre, rating, budget, month, TAG of director, TAG of actors, oscar wins and nominations by cast, etc

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





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Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Gillian Anderson (GANDE) 25000 23.37 (-0.50)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Eva Victor (EVICT) 25000 3.15 (+0.19)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 25000 33.60 (-0.25)          Emilia Jones (EJONE) 25000 16.89 (-0.56)          Ink (INK) 150000 7.50 (-0.04)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 4.66 (+0.49)          Michael 2 (MJAC2) 150000 181.63 (-1.16)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 150000 185.18 (+0.04)          Verity H$25 Put (VERTY.PU) 4663 2.00 (0.00)          Annabelle Wallis (AWALL) 25000 37.88 (+0.25)          Andrew Garfield (AGARF) 25000 56.66 (+0.17)          Run Amok (RAMOK) 150000 0.91 (-0.09)          Anna Faris (AFARI) 25000 68.75 (+0.70)          Ghost Rider (GHSRD) 150000 156.11 (+0.14)          Verity - Opening Weekend (VERTY.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Verity H$25 Put (VERTY.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 50000 76.27 (-1.79)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 50000 76.27 (-1.79)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Put (DIGER.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 150000 90.86 (+2.20)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Put (DIGER.PU) 32 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Run Amok (RAMOK) 150000 0.91 (-0.09)          Verity - Opening Weekend (VERTY.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Verity - Opening Weekend (VERTY.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 23903 25.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Put (DIGER.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Idiots (SHTHD) 149999 1.62 (-0.11)          Verity (VERTY) 150000 68.67 (+0.20)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 2500 175.55 (-0.13)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 690 9.12 (-0.02)