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What about this

Posted by: KurtPilo on Mar 02, 11:58 in response to GMov's post The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an...

Shouldn't the OW be regressed on variables such as genre, rating, budget, month, TAG of director, TAG of actors, oscar wins and nominations by cast, etc

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





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A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 2000 16.13 (+0.06)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 8 1.60 (-0.01)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 6 155.17 (-0.55)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 25 88.57 (+2.03)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 15 116.70 (-1.63)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 15 116.70 (-1.63)          Challengers (CHALN) 150000 40.66 (+1.17)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles seq (TMNT4) 3 78.52 (+0.16)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 15 57.63 (+0.80)          Paddington in Peru (PADT3) 8 42.41 (-0.29)          They Listen (THEYL) 14 30.44 (-0.39)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Mercy (MRCY1) 1000 58.32 (+0.05)          Challengers (CHALN) 3 40.66 (+1.17)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          The Strangers: Chapter 1 (STRN3) 219 26.18 (+0.05)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 5000 3.66 (-0.05)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 200 62.74 (+2.74)          The Wager (WAGER) 150000 37.32 (+1.75)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.74 (+2.74)          The Ploughmen (PLOUM) 150000 0.07 (+0.02)          Deadpool & Wolverine (DEAD3) 100 386.57 (-1.92)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 73598 88.57 (+2.03)          Clear Lake (CLRLK) 150000 0.06 (+0.02)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 21.88 (-0.95)          All That I Am (ATIAM) 150000 0.65 (+0.02)          Doctor Strange 3 (DRST3) 150000 134.24 (+1.10)          We Grown Now (WGNOW) 150000 0.60 (+0.03)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Babygirl (BBGRL) 1000 9.18 (-0.04)          Harold and the Purple Crayon (HATPC) 1000 31.77 (+0.02)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 150000 129.55 (-0.11)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.74 (+2.74)          Challengers (CHALN) 150000 40.66 (+1.17)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 50000 88.57 (+2.03)          Lips Like Sugar (LIPLS) 1000 11.32 (-0.02)          FOX: Grimsburg (GRMSBG) 25000 13.60 (+0.15)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 4.98 (-1.06)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 57.63 (+0.80)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 1000 33.14 (+0.48)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 21.88 (-0.95)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 150000 88.57 (+2.03)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 30.69 (-0.54)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 116263 139.81 (+0.25)          CBS: Elsbeth (ELSBET) 25000 10.09 (0.00)          Deadpool & Wolverine (DEAD3) 60000 386.57 (-1.92)          CBS: Tracker (TRACKR) 25000 13.66 (-0.14)