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What about this

Posted by: KurtPilo on Mar 02, 11:58 in response to GMov's post The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an...

Shouldn't the OW be regressed on variables such as genre, rating, budget, month, TAG of director, TAG of actors, oscar wins and nominations by cast, etc

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





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Gabrielle Union (GUNIO) 1010 18.94 (+0.10)          Fred Hechinger (FHECH) 100 8.26 (+0.05)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 2838 12.07 (+0.57)          Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 150000 10.15 (+0.08)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 100 13.19 (+1.60)          Jenna Ortega (JORTE) 200 81.46 (+0.25)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 100 35.53 (+0.06)          Clue (CLUE) 149996 14.46 (+0.07)          Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 149996 22.58 (+0.01)          Grendel (GREND) 149996 14.57 (+0.05)          Sender (SENDR) 20000 10.14 (+0.95)          Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue - A (A6CKHU) 25000 2.37 (+0.02)          Samara Weaving (SAWEA) 1000 32.00 (+0.01)          Wishful Thinking (WSHFT) 20000 4.46 (+1.00)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 20000 5.27 (+1.06)          Subversion (SUBVS) 150000 22.09 (-0.11)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 150000 13.19 (+1.60)          Subversion (SUBVS) 149996 22.09 (-0.11)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 150000 13.19 (+1.60)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 20000 18.12 (+1.45)          The Young People (TYPEP) 149996 16.99 (+0.09)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 20000 13.19 (+1.60)          GOAT H$25 Put Fri-Mon (TGOAT.PU) 25000 2.37 (+0.02)          Undertone (UNDTN) 149996 12.28 (+0.07)          Crime 101 H$10 Call Fri-Mon (CRIM1.CA) 25000 1.66 (0.00)          Jeremy Irvine (JIRVI) 25000 26.88 (-0.12)          Wuthering Heights H$45 Call Fri- (WUTHR.CA) 25000 2.28 (+0.06)          The Riders (RIDER) 149998 34.62 (+0.13)          Border 2 (BORD2) 150000 2.70 (+0.04)          Border 2 (BORD2) 150000 2.70 (+0.04)          No Other Choice (THEAX) 150000 8.89 (+0.02)          And Then There Were None (ATTWN) 13000 0.67 (0.00)          Sender (SENDR) 1047 10.14 (+0.95)          Park Chan-wook (CWPAR) 25000 2.17 (+0.02)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.12 (+1.45)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 1061 13.19 (+1.60)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 150000 176.51 (-0.52)          Michael (MJACK) 150000 170.41 (+0.33)          Sam Riley (SRILE) 25000 24.55 (-0.12)          Hey Bear (HEYBR) 50000 6.36 (+0.57)          The Backrooms (BACRM) 100 18.34 (-0.02)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 10000 498.87 (+0.55)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 100 153.02 (0.00)          Remain aka Untitled Shyamalan Sp (REMAN) 10000 61.57 (-0.06)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 14.73 (-0.15)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 10000 147.09 (+0.15)          Rogue Trooper (RTROP) 100 4.64 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 10000 229.22 (+0.83)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.12 (+1.45)          Lee Cronin's The Mummy (TMUMY) 110 43.15 (0.00)