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ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location

Posted by: RazorHawk on Mar 02, 08:05 in response to RazorHawk's post 3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume)

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/440155049889521664

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





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Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 1 233.60 (-0.47)          In the Grey (NGREY) 12500 14.73 (-0.08)          No Other Choice (THEAX) 12500 4.48 (-0.13)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 3998 63.86 (-1.36)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 25000 429.09 (-10.07)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 11.62 (+0.98)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 11.62 (+0.98)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Christine (CRSTN) 150000 17.37 (-0.01)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 989 429.09 (-10.07)          Christine (CRSTN) 150000 17.37 (-0.01)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.19 (+0.67)          Magic Hour (MGCHR) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.19 (+0.67)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 75000 429.09 (-10.07)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 150000 41.49 (+0.91)          David (DAVID) 59999 71.76 (-2.06)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 150000 41.49 (+0.91)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 11.79 (-1.86)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 78042 429.09 (-10.07)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 11.79 (-1.86)          Eleven Days (11DAY) 150000 13.93 (+0.75)          Eleven Days (11DAY) 150000 13.93 (+0.75)          First Warrior (FWARR) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Belly of the Beast (BELYB) 150000 4.86 (+0.29)          Belly of the Beast (BELYB) 150000 4.86 (+0.29)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.95 (+1.14)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.95 (+1.14)          Stuffed (STUFD) 150000 1.69 (+0.02)          Scarlet (SCRLT) 30000 7.45 (-0.02)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 25000 41.33 (-2.08)          Fellowship (FELWS) 149996 14.41 (-0.59)          Deep Water (DEEPW) 31000 5.56 (-0.11)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 100000 41.33 (-2.08)          Belly of the Beast (BELYB) 149998 4.86 (+0.29)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 9.50 (-0.26)          Alone Together (ALTGT) 149998 4.19 (+0.47)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.19 (+0.67)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.19 (+0.67)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.41 (-0.59)          Eleven Days (11DAY) 149998 13.93 (+0.75)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.41 (-0.59)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 11.79 (-1.86)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 11.79 (-1.86)          The Conjuring Prequel (CNJU5) 149998 88.79 (-0.20)