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Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36%

Posted by: elchan2012 on Mar 02, 08:25 in response to RazorHawk's post 3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume)

A little worse thatn 18% for NONST and much better for SOGOD.  If the model gets this consistently, it could be useful.

MTC LA Times Variety THR EW Box Office Coming Soon Box Office Guru Box Office Mojo OW (Sunday Estimate) Predict Difference
26 20 25 20 23 29 27 24 25 30 24 19.67%
23 20 17 22 20 18 18 20 28 26.5 22 15.36%

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





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Solo Mio (SOLOM) 499 10.07 (+0.27)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 3000 1.92 (0.00)          Sender (SENDR) 20000 10.57 (+1.38)          James Cameron (JCAME) 25000 143.32 (-0.33)          Shiver (SHVER) 150000 61.32 (-2.83)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 20000 13.23 (+1.64)          Solo Mio (SOLOM) 9999 10.07 (+0.27)          Other Mommy aka Incidents Around (IATHS) 10000 28.25 (0.00)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 25000 11.63 (-0.91)          Stray Kids: The dominATE Experie (SKTDE) 9962 3.70 (-0.01)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 10000 8.50 (0.00)          Stray Kids: The dominATE Experie (SKTDE) 962 3.70 (-0.01)          Sender (SENDR) 20000 10.57 (+1.38)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 1000 11.89 (+0.02)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 25000 5.58 (+1.37)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 20000 18.63 (+1.96)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 3000 243.16 (+0.83)          Pillion (PILON) 979 2.45 (-0.02)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 100000 13.23 (+1.64)          Kokuho (KOKUH) 100 1.02 (+0.02)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 100000 18.63 (+1.96)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 1 235.14 (+0.50)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 1000 235.14 (+0.50)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 150000 13.23 (+1.64)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 18.63 (+1.96)          Michael (MJACK) 6 170.74 (+0.66)          The Drama (TDRAM) 26813 22.39 (+0.13)          Dhurandhar 2 (DHUR2) 150000 9.40 (+0.03)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 11.63 (-0.91)          Michael (MJACK) 1000 170.74 (+0.66)          The Moment (MOMNT) 4999 9.12 (-0.01)          Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) 150000 32.87 (-0.16)          Gatto (GATTO) 3000 111.02 (0.00)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 10000 38.41 (-0.04)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 10000 38.41 (-0.04)          The Moment (MOMNT) 983 9.12 (-0.01)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 150000 5.58 (+1.37)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 150000 5.58 (+1.37)          Shiver (SHVER) 50000 61.32 (-2.83)          Fast Forever (FAF11) 17000 120.48 (+0.37)          Kokuho (KOKUH) 907 1.02 (+0.02)          Shiver (SHVER) 50000 61.32 (-2.83)          Jimpa (JIMPA) 1000 0.84 (0.00)          Sender (SENDR) 150000 10.57 (+1.38)          The Mandalorian and Grogu (SWAR3) 25000 239.14 (-0.50)          Jimpa (JIMPA) 4997 0.84 (0.00)          The Mandalorian and Grogu (SWAR3) 25000 239.14 (-0.50)          Sender (SENDR) 150000 10.57 (+1.38)          Wuthering Heights H$45 Call Fri- (WUTHR.CA) 24999 2.35 (+0.13)          Jimpa (JIMPA) 997 0.84 (0.00)