HSX Forum

Movies

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36%

Posted by: elchan2012 on Mar 02, 08:25 in response to RazorHawk's post 3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume)

A little worse thatn 18% for NONST and much better for SOGOD.  If the model gets this consistently, it could be useful.

MTC LA Times Variety THR EW Box Office Coming Soon Box Office Guru Box Office Mojo OW (Sunday Estimate) Predict Difference
26 20 25 20 23 29 27 24 25 30 24 19.67%
23 20 17 22 20 18 18 20 28 26.5 22 15.36%

3 Days To Kill - 4.9 mill (20.70 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:33

Non-Stop - 30 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:35

The Bag Man - $28,449 from 2 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:44

Son Of God - 26.5 mill RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:45

The Wind Rises 1.6 mill (2.04 cume) RazorHawk Mar 02, 07:57

ERNEST & CELESTINE - $15,611 from 1 location RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:05

The Lunchbox - $51,325 from 3 locations RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:09

ERC: "Sony's STALINGRAD hit a wall, debuting exclusively in IMAX 3D with $500k in 308 theaters--$1,622 per." RazorHawk Mar 02, 08:15

Saw Stalingrad in Imax. Pretty good movie but why 3d and why imax? shortit Mar 02, 11:50

Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36% elchan2012 Mar 02, 08:25

Do you think there's enough variation in the data points. Most the the predictors are engaging in group think or looking at the same trackin {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 09:01

Yes, there is sufficient variance. The mean standard deviation between the forecasters over 4 years is 2.84. (zero being no variance) {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 09:18

The SD could be largely due to groupthink and timing of predictions though. Also, Variety lowballed by about 55% with its $17M on SOGOD... KalElFan Mar 02, 09:46

The regression model will account for the boneheadedness. If they consistently low ball, or high ball, they are weighted lower. {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:06

What the regression will do is find the relationship between the forecasters predictions and the weekend estimated BO. elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:19

This is a reponse to Gmov below ---> {nm} elchan2012 Mar 02, 10:28

The Bonehead winner each week could be fun though. :-) Also, calling it a regression model doesn't make it much more than what it mainly... KalElFan Mar 02, 10:41

Of the we reporting consistently for 4 years, here are the average error rates. (Box Office has been the most accurate) elchan2012 Mar 02, 11:28

The concept of a regression analysis is that there is an independent variable and a dependent variables. The OW is not dependent on the GMov Mar 02, 10:12

What about this KurtPilo Mar 02, 11:58

I thought it was using HSX stock price as the dependent variable. otherwise, you're right and a weighted average is more appropriate. {nm} Moviesnob Mar 02, 12:21

Frozen, 3.6m (-18%) and... 1 BILLION WW $1,000,236,000 ! {nm} Budd Mar 02, 08:42





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Musical (MSCAL) 299 0.25 (+0.01)          The Musical (MSCAL) 1501 0.25 (+0.01)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Sight & Sound Presents: Josh (SSPJL) 150000 2.59 (-0.71)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          God's Country (GDSCN) 489 0.24 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          God's Country (GDSCN) 3011 0.24 (0.00)          The Incomer (INCOM) 201 0.23 (0.00)          The Incomer (INCOM) 799 0.23 (0.00)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 150000 61.80 (+1.92)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 150000 61.80 (+1.92)          You Had to Be There (YHTBT) 200 0.22 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 150000 61.80 (+1.92)          Nasty (NASTY) 150000 16.84 (+1.68)          You Had to Be There (YHTBT) 200 0.22 (0.00)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 75000 5.35 (+1.76)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 17.81 (+0.14)          Making Marie Antoinette (MAKMA) 698 0.22 (0.00)          Wicker (WCKER) 150000 20.59 (+1.60)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.72 (+1.45)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 5.35 (+1.76)          Making Marie Antoinette (MAKMA) 702 0.22 (0.00)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 150000 17.81 (+0.14)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 33.42 (+3.34)          Molepeople (MOLEP) 20000 23.02 (+0.84)          The Deputy (DEPUT) 202 0.22 (0.00)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 59.65 (-1.28)          The Deputy (DEPUT) 498 0.22 (0.00)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.72 (+1.45)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 3.72 (+1.45)          Conception (CNCPT) 198 0.22 (0.00)          Conception (CNCPT) 5498 0.22 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 37956 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 1 100.00 (0.00)          California Schemin' (CASHM) 202 0.22 (-0.03)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 150000 3.79 (-0.77)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          California Schemin' (CASHM) 698 0.22 (-0.03)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 150000 3.79 (-0.77)          Slayground (OCTOB) 150000 15.29 (+0.29)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Last Friday (FRID4) 150000 15.05 (+0.07)          Narnia: The Magician's Neph (NARN4) 150000 43.43 (-0.02)          Last Friday (FRID4) 150000 15.05 (+0.07)          Ebenezer - Opening Weekend (EBNZR.OW) 1234 34.49 (-0.63)