HSX Forum

Movies

Yes that is exactly what I meant

Posted by: shawman on Jul 06, 21:32 in response to Facto's post Or actually, he used the < and > signs, and I am...

Based on this MTC/RS rule So DESME should break out big time and make 40M+ while PRED3 should bomb and make less than 20M.

 

But that seems incredible to me. I just dont see DESME opening that high. But this summer the rule has been working for every movie(except KFKID which broke out more than what tracking showed).

 

IronMan2/Shrek 4/Sex and the City2/Price of Persia/A-Team/Eclipse - RS > MTC and actuals < MTC
TS3/Knight and Day/Robin Hood - RS and MTC were close and actuals were close as well
Grown Ups/Last Airbender - MTC > RS and actuals > MTC


MTC Tracking: DESME $35m, PRED3 $24m {nm} Rolling_Thunder Jul 06, 16:30

Seems much more realistic than RS. {nm} shadowking Jul 06, 17:23

Agreed. {nm} badvladdy Jul 06, 17:42

shawman wrote recently that: "If MTC is higher than RS (it should not be insignificant), then actuals will be higher than MTC." Facto Jul 06, 18:01

Or actually, he used the < and > signs, and I am not entirely sure he used them correctly.... I asked for clarification, but didn't receive Facto Jul 06, 18:08

He was correct. This definitely points to DM having a good opening weekend. The "rule" has been almost flawless this summer. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 06, 18:37

But not $36 million plus good, which is what it needs right now to make its price. {nm} secretstalker Jul 06, 19:13

Yes that is exactly what I meant shawman Jul 06, 21:32

so does that mean we should expect pred to tank? {nm} tbonearelli Jul 08, 11:49

He also wrote, as another general rule,that: "If RS is higher than MTC ( it should not be insignificant), then actuals are lower than MTC." {nm} Facto Jul 06, 18:05

I don't see DESME doing that amount at ALL. Regardless of "the equation" I think RS is more on the mark this time. {nm} secretstalker Jul 06, 18:33

Yeah, I believe we've seen it track in the teens all the way until now. That MTC number really breaks the mold, here. {nm} Facto Jul 06, 18:41

The only thing that has me thinking a big weekend is the crazy amount of advertising they've poured into the film. Rolling_Thunder Jul 06, 18:47

But it's not good advertising for what the movie is... they make it look like it's all bout the minions. {nm} secretstalker Jul 06, 19:13

I'm not really into "the equation", though I do respect MTC on it's own. shadowking Jul 06, 18:50

Is it tracking like cloudy meatballs? Both Look to me like targeting the same demographic ;) {nm} karspov Jul 06, 18:37

But Despicable Me isn't nearly as good. {nm} secretstalker Jul 06, 18:40

Agreed , the trailer looks a bit confusing and the movie title certainly isn't kids friendly too {nm} karspov Jul 06, 18:43

The movie is more for kids than adults. {nm} secretstalker Jul 06, 18:47

Ugh. Not as good as "Cloudy"? Is that possible? "Cloudy" was horrendous! Sorry but it's true! {nm} Apokalips Jul 06, 23:02

Also, with the initial reviews on PRED3 quite good, I could see that one being under-estimated. There is a market for that type of movie {nm} GMov Jul 06, 18:44

There is definitely a market for that type of movie, however... shadowking Jul 06, 18:53

MTC Tracking: DESME $35m, PRED3 $24m numbersix_99 Jul 07, 03:29





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Snoop Dogg Biopic (SNOOP) 72735 27.72 (-0.04)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 C (5NAF2.CA) 25000 2.09 (+0.11)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 25000 3.98 (-0.58)          The Land of Sometimes (LSMTM) 74999 3.65 (-0.01)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 78.72 (-1.01)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 1 11.12 (-1.27)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 C (5NAF2.CA) 25000 2.09 (+0.11)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 75000 21.53 (-0.24)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 25000 2.07 (-0.18)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 30000 11.12 (-1.27)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 - Open (5NAF2.OW) 100000 45.09 (+0.74)          Obsession (OBSSN) 1 16.35 (-1.29)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 1.70 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 25000 2.07 (-0.18)          Obsession (OBSSN) 30000 16.35 (-1.29)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 79558 109.75 (+1.95)          Merrily We Roll Along (MWRAL) 150000 4.26 (+0.41)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 2.19 (+0.30)          Merrily We Roll Along (MWRAL) 150000 4.26 (+0.41)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 23.33 (-2.03)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 23.33 (-2.03)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 24999 2.38 (-0.19)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 99999 23.33 (-2.03)          Hexed aka Untitled Walt Disney A (HEXED) 150000 112.21 (+0.55)          Sentimental Value (SENTV) 150000 3.92 (+0.07)          Sam & Victor’s Day Off (SAVDO) 50000 9.49 (-0.09)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 99999 26.79 (-0.48)          Sentimental Value (SENTV) 150000 3.92 (+0.07)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 25000 2.07 (-0.18)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 10 306.78 (-0.40)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 10 306.78 (-0.40)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 3 8.18 (-0.32)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 3 8.18 (-0.32)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 150000 4.99 (+1.28)          Empire City (EMPCT) 2 18.80 (-0.43)          Empire City (EMPCT) 2 18.80 (-0.43)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 3 3.98 (-0.58)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 20000 78.72 (-1.01)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 3 3.98 (-0.58)          Hit Me Hard And Soft (HMSAH) 3 24.16 (-0.62)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 20000 78.72 (-1.01)          Hit Me Hard And Soft (HMSAH) 3 24.16 (-0.62)          Wicked: For Good (WCKD2) 10 359.24 (-1.00)          Wicked: For Good (WCKD2) 10 359.24 (-1.00)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 3 11.12 (-1.27)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 3 11.12 (-1.27)          Obsession (OBSSN) 3 16.35 (-1.29)          Obsession (OBSSN) 3 16.35 (-1.29)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 150000 259.51 (-1.25)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 109.75 (+1.95)