HSX Forum


Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance

Posted by: AB_Excello on Jun 06, 23:56 in response to horlicks' post Its called math...

You still don't have the slightest clue about the term ACCURACY. Your grade school math is all well and good, but you have no clue how to calculate for accuracy in a predictive model...which guess what.....that's what you're defending.

That's why you have to define what constitutes accurate in your system. Let's just say within 75% by your fuzzy math/fuzzy logic is within your definition of accuracy for your system.

Within 75%+/- = 31

Not within 75% = 22

To get accuracy you take all cases that fit into the parameters and divide by that number and the number that didn't make the parameters. Actual formula is (Total positives + Total negative)/(Total positives + Total negatives + False positives + False negatives) but have to put it as simplistic as I can obviously.

And your accuracy is 58.5% at 75%

Or 49.05% at 80%   26/53

Hence why I keep asking what the number is you would deem ACCURATE....but that was presumptive of me because I presumed you knew what accurate meant....my apologies....gave you too much credit.

And you should get the idea after that. Don't know how you get 1-error as accuracy. HSX thing or not, doesn't matter in this case because you are making a case for a PREDICTIVE MODEL. So you have to use.....a predictive formula for accuracy.

You can try to bury someone all you want, fact is I don't have the data that you have and I don't want it and find no use for it. So wow, you got me....your total tweets were from Monday to Thursday....showed me.

Is there value in data from Twitter.....possible....same possible I stated in my initial post. But the stuff you still overlook is you have to use a specific value to age demos/ethnic demos/et all because they aren't accounted for fully in Tweets. The no PI reference...though now I'm starting to doubt you know Pi in anything other than Apple or Blueberry form.

But I'll leave it at you didn't know how to calculate accuracy and if you read any of this post and still feel like arguing about its definition....well, your special ed teachers did a helluva job getting you up to the point where you can use the computer and Tweet. They should get awards.

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37

Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Roadside Attractions to distribute Dreamin' Wild wide on August 4th #DreaminWild https://t.co/ur9N0Dactw       Sosie Bacon, Joe Keery, and Lesley Manville join Cold Storage       Guy Pearce joins The Shrouds directed by David Cronenberg #TheShrouds       #Passages starring Adèle Exarchopoulos, Franz Rogowski and Ben Whishaw gets August 4th release date…       #Sanctuary starring Margaret Qualley and Christopher Abbott lands May 19th release date https://t.co/lCbW3gif6d https://t.co/j0bvwbra5s       First trailer for Ponniyin Selvan: Part 2 #PonniyinSelvan2 #PS2 https://t.co/KT273bm3NM       Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves is currently trading at a $35.3M Opening Weekend on #HSX. Should you Buy,…       First trailer for Asteroid City from Wes Anderson #AsteroidCity https://t.co/GmDlCze9Fv       Matthew Macfadyen joins #Deadpool3       Gravitas Ventures to distribute Padre Pio day-n-date on June 2nd #PadrePio https://t.co/MyNUFkCsKx      
The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         Shazam! Fury of the Gods (SHAZ2) 150000 65.41 (-0.75)         Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among (DNDGN) 150000 88.75 (-2.23)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         Sinister Six (SINST) 25000 29.10 (+3.71)         Are You There God? It’s Me, Ma (AYTGM) 46000 27.28 (-1.58)         Are You There God? It’s Me, Ma (AYTGM) 3200 27.28 (-1.58)         Salem's Lot (SALOT) 150000 27.42 (-0.99)         Salem's Lot (SALOT) 150000 27.42 (-0.99)         Heat 2 (HEAT2) 10000 31.90 (-1.55)         Cold Storage (CLDST) 150000 10.59 (+1.44)         Back to Black (BTBLK) 50000 15.55 (-0.85)         Cold Storage (CLDST) 150000 10.59 (+1.44)         Back to Black (BTBLK) 1200 15.55 (-0.85)         Ponniyin Selvan: Part II (PS2) 6000 3.73 (-0.43)         Shang-Chi 2 (SHCH2) 1000 118.89 (+0.39)         Sweetwater (SWATR) 20000 4.01 (-0.08)         The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)         The Shrouds (SHRUD) 45000 3.29 (+0.74)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         Wind River: The Next Chapter (WNRV2) 8000 18.03 (+1.29)         Wind River: The Next Chapter (WNRV2) 2000 18.03 (+1.29)         Cold Storage (CLDST) 2000 10.59 (+1.44)         Ferrari (ENZOF) 1500 14.41 (-0.04)         Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (AQUM2) 4000 198.98 (+1.58)         Sinister Six (SINST) 9000 29.10 (+3.71)         Sinister Six (SINST) 10000 29.10 (+3.71)         Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among (DNDGN) 4000 88.75 (-2.23)         Ferrari (ENZOF) 1165 14.41 (-0.04)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)         Relay (RELAY) 30000 7.54 (-0.46)         Relay (RELAY) 10000 7.54 (-0.46)         A Thousand and One (ATHON) 4000 3.42 (-0.39)         The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)         Nia DaCosta (NDACO) 12500 42.73 (-0.25)         Creepers (CREPR) 11976 9.92 (-0.01)         Drive-Away aka Untitled Road Mov (DRVAW) 150000 11.10 (-0.01)         Megalopolis (MEGAL) 600 23.08 (-0.07)         Megalopolis (MEGAL) 11000 23.08 (-0.07)         Jimmy O. Yang (JYANG) 25000 26.30 (-1.62)         The Hood (THOOD) 125000 15.42 (-0.05)         La Usurpadora, the Musical (LUSUR) 150000 2.01 (+0.03)         Constantine 2 (CNST2) 150000 65.11 (+1.13)         Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 51.72 (-0.16)         Rally Road Racers (RRRAC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)         The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 150000 12.00 (0.00)