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So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend.

Posted by: horlicks on Jun 06, 12:01

Don't knock something because you don't understand it. Yes its not perfect, but no model is. But it has proven itself time and time again in the last 9 months.

Ā 

Date Movie Total Tweets
Count Ratio Open Pred Diff Error Accuracy
1/8/10 Daybreakers 5,130 2,523 869 $5.90 $6.00 $0.10 0.02 98.31%
1/8/10 Leap Year 1,401 2,511 423 $3.32 $3.75 $0.44 0.13 86.88%
1/8/10 Youth In Revolt 4,020 1,873 1,475 $2.73 $3.00 $0.28 0.10 89.91%
1/15/10 The Book of Eli 7,084 3,111 605 $11.70 $8.75 $2.95 0.25 74.79%
1/15/10 The Lovely Bones 9,715 2,563 1,697 $5.73 $3.50 $2.23 0.39 61.14%
1/15/10 The Spy Next Door 1,452 2,924 599 $2.43 $3.20 $0.78 0.32 68.04%
1/22/10 Extraordinary Measures 2,507 2,549 1,228 $2.04 $3.50 $1.46 0.71 28.60%
1/22/10 Legion 3,890 2,476 581 $6.70 $6.00 $0.70 0.10 89.55%
1/22/10 The Tooth Fairy 1,720 3,344 491 $3.50 $5.50 $2.00 0.57 42.86%
1/29/10 Edge of Darkness 4,101 3,066 725 $5.66 $8.50 $2.85 0.50 49.69%
1/29/10 When In Rome 1,971 2,456 451 $4.38 $3.50 $0.88 0.20 80.00%
2/5/10 Dear John 12,194 2,969 884 $13.80 $10.00 $3.80 0.28 72.46%
2/5/10 From Paris With Love 2,983 2,722 994 $3.00 $4.00 $1.00 0.33 66.67%
2/12/10 Percy Jackson and The Olympians 19,722 3,255 2,018 $9.78 $8.00 $1.78 0.18 81.84%
2/12/10 Valentine's Day 13,441 3,665 919 $14.63 $11.00 $3.63 0.25 75.21%
2/12/10 The Wolfman 6,603 3,222 670 $9.85 $7.00 $2.85 0.29 71.07%
2/19/10 Shutter Island 13,273 2,991 941 $14.10 $12.00 $2.10 0.15 85.11%
2/26/10 Cop Out 2,815 3,150 469 $6.00 $5.50 $0.50 0.08 91.67%
2/26/10 The Crazies 5,012 2,476 849 $5.90 $5.50 $0.40 0.07 93.22%
3/5/10 Alice In Wonderland 83,958 3,728 2,048 $41.00 $30.00 $11.00 0.27 73.17%
3/5/10 Brooklyn's Finest 5,622 1,936 1,190 $4.73 $4.75 $0.03 0.01 99.47%
3/12/10 Green Zone 3,250 3,003 650 $5.00 $6.00 $1.00 0.20 80.00%
3/12/10 Our Family Wedding 2,294 1,605 918 $2.50 $3.00 $0.50 0.20 80.00%
3/12/10 Remember Me 11,022 2,212 3,062 $3.60 $5.50 $1.90 0.53 47.22%
3/12/10 She's Out of My League 2,695 2,956 817 $3.30 $3.75 $0.45 0.14 86.36%
3/19/10 Diary of a Wimpy Kid 1,859 3,077 251 $7.40 $3.90 $3.50 0.47 52.70%
3/19/10 Repo Men 3,092 2,521 1,405 $2.20 $2.70 $0.50 0.23 77.27%
3/19/10 The Bounty Hunter 3,101 3,074 405 $7.65 $9.00 $1.35 0.18 82.35%
3/26/10 Hot Tub Time Machine 8,122 2,754 1,785 $4.55 $6.00 $1.45 0.32 68.13%
3/26/10 How to Train Your Dragon 6,999 4,055 574 $12.20 $12.75 $0.55 0.05 95.49%
3/31/10 The Last Song 20,325 2,673 2,863 $5.10 $4.00 $1.10 0.22 78.43%
4/2/10 Clash of the Titans 23,922 3,777 824 $29.02 $28.75 $0.27 0.01 99.09%
4/2/10 Why Did I Get Married Too 5,925 2,155 480 $12.35 $8.50 $3.85 0.31 68.83%
4/9/10 Date Night 4,449 3,374 478 $9.30 $11.00 $1.70 0.18 81.72%
4/16/10 Death At A Funeral 4,966 2,459 887 $5.60 $8.00 $2.40 0.43 57.14%
4/16/10 Kick Ass 10,791 3,065 1,420 $7.60 $9.50 $1.90 0.25 75.00%
4/23/10 Oceans 4,643 1,206 2,322 $2.50 $3.00 $0.50 0.20 80.00%
4/23/10 The Back-Up Plan 5,046 3,280 1,201 $4.20 $4.15 $0.05 0.01 98.81%
4/23/10 The Losers 2,338 2,936 731 $3.00 $4.60 $1.60 0.53 46.67%
4/30/10 A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) 15,843 3,332 1,003 $15.80 $16.00 $0.20 0.01 98.73%
4/30/10 Furry Vengeance 1,580 2,997 929 $1.70 $2.40 $0.70 0.41 58.82%
5/07/10 Iron Man 2 97,351 4,380 1,858 $52.40 $63.00 $10.60 0.20 79.77%
5/14/10 Just Wright 4,849 1,831 1,701 $2.85 $3.35 $0.50 0.18 82.46%
5/14/10 Letters To Juliet 4,344 2,968 869 $5.00 $6.00 $1.00 0.20 80.00%
5/14/10 Robin Hood 11,697 3,503 890 $13.15 $12.25 $0.90 0.07 93.16%
5/21/10 MacGruber 5,878 2,551 3,674 $1.60 $3.75 $2.15 1.34 0.00%
5/21/10 Shrek Forever After 10,069 4,359 485 $20.75 $28.00 $7.25 0.35 65.06%
5/27/10 Sex and the City 2 57,195 3,445 4,400 $14.20 $20.00 $5.80 0.41 59.15%
5/28/10 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time 46,968 3,646 4,605 $10.20 $13.00 $2.80 0.27 72.55%
6/04/10 Get Him to the Greek 7,545 2,696 1,198 $6.30 $7.00 $0.70 0.11 88.89%
6/04/10 Killers 4,288 2,859 766 $5.60 $5.00 $0.60 0.11 89.29%
6/04/10 Marmaduke 1,229 3,213 361 $3.40 $3.50 $0.10 0.03 97.06%
6/04/10 Splice 3,941 2,450 1,460 $2.70 $4.00 $1.30 0.48 51.85%
Ave: 74.56%

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37





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