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Fine I'll bite

Posted by: horlicks on Jun 06, 18:30 in response to AB_Excello's post Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a...

Not really sure even where to start. But yes I'll bite since you do bring up a couple valid queries and clear misunderstanding of most things.

1. My predictions are posted Thursday morning (just like many prediction sites). I'm not a Monday morning quarterback. Every single one of the numbers posted in my original post were given to the public before the film opened. My accuracy is calculated the exact same as for the other prediction sites I posted here.

2. The point of Twitter is not that it is a representative sample but that it is a consistent sample. Its just like other polling methods whether they be Mojo Polls or Studio run polls. The idea is that you use the numbers of historic films and go from there. Yes it skew all those things, however, all demographics are represented on Twitter (except the really young and really old) and they offer a consistent sample. Whether it be for Marmaduke or Death At A Funeral.

3. All BS, see above.

4. You obviously haven't read my previous posts. Trending means little. It merely shows words/terms with the greatest increase in percentage of activity over a certain magic window of time. Just because something is trending doesn't mean it is doing better than something which isn't. Movie A does 20,000 tweets one day and 21,000 the next day and won't be trending. Movie B does 1,00 one day and 10,000 the next and will be trending. Trending doesn't mean squat in terms of totals.

5. Where do you get 2 million tweets from? Its actually more. But that's besides the point. I assure you my data is rock solid, backed by patents and people a lot smarter than me or you.

6. Its a sample. That is a consistent weekly sample. Do you think RS or MTC or any other tracking service talks to even 5,000 people a week about their choice of movies?

I have been proving it for 9 months. I'm not a flash in the pan, I write 6 columns a week on Twitter and trends/predictions for that entire span. I dare say there are very very few people around who can say that. Read and do a little research before crying down something you know so little about.

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37





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