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Not crying and actually holding back

Posted by: AB_Excello on Jun 06, 20:12 in response to horlicks' post Fine I'll bite

Your numbers are BS. You're accurate on Book of Eli 75% for example. that's off by 3 million on the estimate for a single day. Not the weekend. So is your prediction right? Hell No. If that 3 million off is consistent on the other 2 days, you're off by 9 million dollars on your estimate.

So you're automatically wrong on 43% of your predictions. Do you count 80% as accurate? Do you count 85% as accurate? Do you know the definition of ACCURACY?

You're asking about positives and negatives, so let me answer that for you.....YOU DON'T.

What's a positive, What's a negative...I don't know...what color is the sky?...GMAFB.

That's not even taking into account the most basic flaw in your analysis.....you take Tweets on Friday to predict numbers for Friday.......WOOOOOOOOOOW....you are "74% accurate" on what the numbers might be for Friday based on data from tweets on FRIDAY....big edge you're giving people there.

And just FYI, no idea you were even doing Tweet analysis....no target on you, just adding to the conversation. YOU were the one asking for someone to take you on and subtley singled out my post. Its not my fault your analysis is crap. Its not my fault your data is junk. Its not my fault you obviously didn't take STAT in college.

But feel free to Twitter about me, then your lunch, then your movie plans, then your explosive bowel movement, then the weather outside, then your plans for lunch the next day....you know, all the breaking news on Twitter.

 

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37





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