HSX Forum

Movies

Its called math...

Posted by: horlicks on Jun 06, 20:37 in response to AB_Excello's post Not crying and actually holding back

Take Book of Eli.

My prediction for Friday was $8.75 million and it did $11.7 million. Standard predictive accuracy used by not only me but many people throughout my 9 years of playing this game is accuracy = (1 - error). Error is simply the absolute difference between your prediction and the actual divided by the actual.

Multiply my numbers by 3 for instance for Book of Eli for arguments sake and you get a prediction of 26.25 and an actual of 35.1. That's a difference of 8.85. 8.85 divided by 35.1 gives .2521. Now subtract .2521 from 1 and you get 74.79% Welcome to 5th grade math.

I never said I was 98% accurate. That was HP. I have posted numbers recently on here that ranks the best predictions on the web as being 79% accurate using the exact same formula above. Show me someone better than that. I'm merely pointing out that Twitter can be a useful predictive tool. People jump on it on these boards consistently simply because they don't understand its value or how to interpret data. i.e you in your initial post.

You are again wrong in my data. I take tweets from Monday to Thursday. My numbers included in my chart were given based on data from Thursday's but throughout the week I project the final number and as of Thursday morning they are given.

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          Halsey (HALSE) 1 70.00 (0.00)          They Found Us (THFUS) 30000 16.96 (-0.01)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 2000 288.81 (+1.62)          They Follow aka It Follows 2 (TFLW2) 30000 12.05 (+0.02)          GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 25.61 (-4.39)          They Follow aka It Follows 2 (TFLW2) 30000 12.05 (+0.02)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 24998 11.99 (+0.44)          Halsey (HALSE) 25000 70.00 (0.00)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 150000 11.99 (+0.44)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 150000 11.99 (+0.44)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 1000 20.00 (0.00)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          Halsey (HALSE) 100 70.00 (0.00)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          GOAT (TGOAT) 100 25.61 (-4.39)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          The Apprentice (APRNT) 50000 11.99 (+0.44)          Whoopi Goldberg (WGOLD) 25000 8.78 (-0.06)          Viggo Mortensen (VMORT) 25000 18.91 (-0.14)          Viggo Mortensen (VMORT) 20000 18.91 (-0.14)          Vicky Krieps (VKRIE) 25000 9.98 (-0.05)          Robert De Niro (RDENI) 25000 23.78 (-14.46)          Robert De Niro (RDENI) 25000 23.78 (-14.46)          Red One (REDON) 1 89.07 (+2.55)          Last Friday (FRID4) 100 3.62 (-0.47)          Red One (REDON) 1000 89.07 (+2.55)          Vicky Krieps (VKRIE) 25000 9.98 (-0.05)          Diane Keaton (DKEAT) 25000 4.76 (-0.59)          Danny Huston (DHUST) 25000 14.86 (-3.13)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN.OW) 100000 16.79 (-0.31)          Downton Abbey 3 (DWTA3) 50000 26.88 (-0.33)          Danny Huston (DHUST) 25000 14.86 (-3.13)          Vera Farmiga (VFARM) 25000 31.06 (-6.51)          A Quiet Place: Day One H$40 Call (AQPL3.CA) 25000 4.92 (+0.11)          A Quiet Place: Day One (AQPL3.OW) 100000 46.33 (-0.27)          Bobby Cannavale (BCANN) 25000 87.38 (+1.34)          Bobby Cannavale (BCANN) 25000 87.38 (+1.34)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN.CA) 25000 0.83 (-0.08)          Alfre Woodard (AWOOD) 25000 51.78 (-15.87)          Alfre Woodard (AWOOD) 25000 51.78 (-15.87)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN) 60000 47.63 (-1.14)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          Baby Driver 2 (BDRV2) 150000 3.31 (+0.04)          Stephan James (SJAME) 25000 13.33 (-4.16)          Robert De Niro (RDENI) 25000 23.78 (-14.46)          Viggo Mortensen (VMORT) 25000 18.91 (-0.14)