HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Its called math...
Take Book of Eli.
My prediction for Friday was $8.75 million and it did $11.7 million. Standard predictive accuracy used by not only me but many people throughout my 9 years of playing this game is accuracy = (1 - error). Error is simply the absolute difference between your prediction and the actual divided by the actual.
Multiply my numbers by 3 for instance for Book of Eli for arguments sake and you get a prediction of 26.25 and an actual of 35.1. That's a difference of 8.85. 8.85 divided by 35.1 gives .2521. Now subtract .2521 from 1 and you get 74.79% Welcome to 5th grade math.
I never said I was 98% accurate. That was HP. I have posted numbers recently on here that ranks the best predictions on the web as being 79% accurate using the exact same formula above. Show me someone better than that. I'm merely pointing out that Twitter can be a useful predictive tool. People jump on it on these boards consistently simply because they don't understand its value or how to interpret data. i.e you in your initial post.
You are again wrong in my data. I take tweets from Monday to Thursday. My numbers included in my chart were given based on data from Thursday's but throughout the week I project the final number and as of Thursday morning they are given.
So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. Jun 06, 12:01
Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} Jun 06, 12:04
Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} Jun 06, 12:43
Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} Jun 06, 13:36
It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} Jun 06, 15:51
Sure, here's a bit more info. Jun 06, 18:50
Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} Jun 07, 04:10
Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies Jun 06, 14:20
If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} Jun 06, 14:37
And that's fine Jun 06, 15:07
Shaped and moulded? Jun 06, 18:33
Fine I'll bite Jun 06, 18:30
Not crying and actually holding back Jun 06, 20:12
Its called math... Jun 06, 20:37
Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance Jun 06, 23:56
Interesting Jun 07, 07:42
Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Jun 06, 15:43
But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. Jun 06, 15:54
Probably :-) {nm} Jun 06, 16:21
Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Jun 07, 08:37
