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And that's fine

Posted by: AB_Excello on Jun 06, 15:07 in response to RogerMore's post If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who...

And hey, props to him for putting in work when he doesn't have to whether or not it works. Nothing but love if that helps ease your mind.

But is 74% accuracy acceptable to a statistician? An engineer?

And I'll even challenge the 74% number. What is his definition of True positive/True negative? Gotta have those to give the proper number on accuracy, but those parameters aren't there. Just gave him the benefit of the doubt cuz I'm not putting the work in if I'm not getting paid for it (Doubt I'd get the adulation of the masses too so whatev).

My thought is he's only honestly close on 17 of the stocks listed, but I just went with the numbers he used for accuracy.

Nothing against the guy. Wouldn't even have replied if he didn't use the word "myth". I just think the data is shaped and molded in his favor and its "Hey, take my word for it". And if you're trying to prove something dealing with data sets, take my word for it doesn't apply.

So, the Twitter prediction 'myth' scored another win this weekend. horlicks Jun 06, 12:01

Not bad at all. Thanks for your time in compiling the info. {nm} grammar Jun 06, 12:04

Impressive average but I still don't understand what it's counting. {nm} BuenaOnda Jun 06, 12:43

Yah, I don't see how the tweet count and (theater?) count are calculated into a prediction. And, don't see what that ratio is. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 12:52

Trade secrets, I bet :) {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 13:36

It's explained pretty well on the site. {nm} secretstalker Jun 06, 15:51

Fine. But, if the OP was meant to persuade us dunderheads, then it should have been explained. As is, it's kind of meaningless. {nm} edzep Jun 06, 16:12

Sure, here's a bit more info. horlicks Jun 06, 18:50

Helpful. You're certainly putting a lot of work into it. {nm} edzep Jun 07, 04:10

Since this is probably aimed at me, I'll give you a couple of good replies AB_Excello Jun 06, 14:20

If 74% is a D+, there isn't a box office predictor who does better than a C- {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 14:37

And that's fine AB_Excello Jun 06, 15:07

74% accuracy is pretty good for a golfer or a darts player, and I'd say those arebetter analogies than an engineer or a statistician {nm} RogerMore Jun 06, 16:02

Shaped and moulded? horlicks Jun 06, 18:33

Fine I'll bite horlicks Jun 06, 18:30

Not crying and actually holding back AB_Excello Jun 06, 20:12

Its called math... horlicks Jun 06, 20:37

Soooo wanted to let this go, but I really hate ignorance AB_Excello Jun 06, 23:56

Interesting horlicks Jun 07, 07:42

Insanely low number of tweets for Marmaduke.. Lowest of them all, from what I can see {nm} Facto Jun 06, 15:43

But that was a movie not meant for people who would use Twitter. secretstalker Jun 06, 15:54

Probably :-) {nm} Facto Jun 06, 16:21

Some of the worst accuracy was for terrible movies. I assume that's from people warning others to stay away. {nm} Biff68 Jun 07, 08:37





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