HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much
a guestimate (you put your best guess forward) for the weekdays. I called $230, it's a rational number based on the weekend as that's all we have at the moment. Tomorrow we will have a really good look at the weekday drop-off. As for Wknd/Wknd there is no reason to think that they will change all that much in the 3rd and 4th. Also the 3rd and 4th have a good a chance to moderate in the movies favour as against it. There is no reason to think that this movie will suddenly punge a consistent 50%. The Biggest unknow factor that will effect delist at this moment is the weekday drops. If they come in around $6 million You are looking at a $230, I think traders can figure out if the math is better or worse then this, what the stock is likely worth in the ballpark. I still think there is more up then downside for a stock priced at $209. Of course it was a real easy call when the stock was priced at $200.
Quit disparaging this movie or I will sic Karthick24 on you. 
Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). Jul 26, 14:02
What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Jul 26, 14:12
That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} Jul 26, 14:58
You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Jul 26, 15:08
Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens Jul 26, 15:39
Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Jul 26, 15:45
Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} Jul 26, 18:53
In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Jul 26, 15:43
Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Jul 26, 15:46
Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Jul 26, 17:28
I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Jul 26, 15:20
I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Jul 26, 15:53
Note to new traders on my note to new traders Jul 26, 16:59
Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Jul 26, 17:06
Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} Jul 26, 18:50