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Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one).

Posted by: lukesed on Jul 26, 14:02

If it declines uniformly by 35%: 62.78+42.73(1+.65+.65^2)+(100.16-62.78)(1+.65+.65^2) = 229M

30%: 62.78+42.73(1+.70+.70^2)+(100.16-62.78)(1+.70+.70^2) = 238M 

25%: 62.78+42.73(1+.75+.75^2)+(100.16-62.78)(1+.75+.75^2) = 248M

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





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Fackham Hall (FACKH) 149999 5.65 (-0.73)          Audition (AUDTN) 2000 4.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 121782 110.76 (+2.96)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 1 20.85 (-0.92)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 1 20.85 (-0.92)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 1 19.77 (-0.46)          Untitled K-Pop Movie (KPOPM) 150000 32.42 (-0.13)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 99999 23.29 (-2.07)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 1 19.77 (-0.46)          David (DAVID) 117168 76.13 (-0.55)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 24999 2.05 (-0.20)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 1 110.76 (+2.96)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 1 110.76 (+2.96)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 149999 110.76 (+2.96)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 100000 26.29 (-0.98)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 100000 26.29 (-0.98)          Acorns (ACRNS) 104 109.26 (+0.33)          Wife & Dog (WIFDG) 1 9.66 (-0.03)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 10000 2.05 (-0.20)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 - Open (5NAF2.OW) 40000 46.01 (+1.66)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 - Open (5NAF2.OW) 100000 46.01 (+1.66)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 - Open (5NAF2.OW) 99999 46.01 (+1.66)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 - Open (5NAF2.OW) 20000 46.01 (+1.66)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 100000 2.00 (0.00)          Hamnet - Opening Weekend (HAMNT.OW) 100000 3.53 (-0.22)          Hamnet - Opening Weekend (HAMNT.OW) 100000 3.53 (-0.22)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 149999 76.52 (-3.21)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 2.17 (-0.40)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 2.17 (-0.40)          Dog Years (DOGYS) 150000 1.77 (-0.23)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 23.29 (-2.07)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 9.18 (-0.82)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 23.29 (-2.07)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 1500 48.48 (-0.20)          Mercy (MRCY1) 150000 36.23 (-1.12)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 150000 20.85 (-0.92)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Sarah Gadon (SGADO) 25000 5.42 (-0.10)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 150000 20.85 (-0.92)          Sarah Gadon (SGADO) 25000 5.42 (-0.10)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 19.77 (-0.46)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 P (5NAF2.PU) 25000 2.05 (-0.20)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 H$45 C (5NAF2.CA) 25000 2.20 (+0.22)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 5000 257.88 (-1.62)          Now You See Me: Now You Don't (NYSM3) 150000 55.20 (-0.31)