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Note to new traders on my note to new traders

Posted by: Vashta Nerada (a.k.a H-Mogul) on Jul 26, 16:59 in response to Vashta Nerada's post He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that...

adjust your estimates based on real numbers. Actuals are gold, theoretical numbers are just that theoretical.

Remember your mileage my vary.

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





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Day Drinker (DRNKR) 150000 12.74 (+1.15)          Noah Jupe (NJUPE) 25000 59.66 (+1.40)          The Chronology of Water (CHROW) 1 0.25 (-0.02)          Noah Jupe (NJUPE) 25000 59.66 (+1.40)          Stephen Graham (SGRAH) 18253 95.00 (0.00)          Heel (HEEL) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 16540 106.96 (-0.12)          Teresa Palmer (TPALM) 25000 39.84 (0.00)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 24.94 (-0.24)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 24.00 (-0.37)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 24.00 (-0.37)          Signing Tony Raymond (SIGTR) 150000 0.97 (-0.11)          Shiver (SHVER) 1146 62.81 (-1.34)          All You Need Is Kill (AUNIK) 150000 1.89 (-0.06)          All You Need Is Kill (AUNIK) 150000 1.89 (-0.06)          Signing Tony Raymond (SIGTR) 150000 0.97 (-0.11)          Signing Tony Raymond (SIGTR) 150000 0.97 (-0.11)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 89.73 (+1.81)          Julia Fox (JFOX) 25000 27.92 (-0.12)          Sender (SENDR) 10000 10.05 (+0.86)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 50000 39.51 (+1.06)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 10000 18.23 (+1.56)          The Resurrection of the Christ: (RESU2) 2000 132.80 (-0.21)          Dermot Mulroney (DMULR) 25000 39.97 (0.00)          Solo Mio - Opening Weekend (SOLOM.OW) 100000 4.30 (+0.10)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 25000 90.01 (-0.75)          Cillian Murphy (CMURP) 25000 90.01 (-0.75)          Michael (MJACK) 150000 172.05 (+1.97)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 10000 147.58 (+0.64)          Cary Elwes (CELWE) 25000 40.42 (-0.16)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 50000 39.51 (+1.06)          Wuthering Heights - Opening Week (WUTHR.OW) 100000 50.95 (+1.08)          Sender (SENDR) 5000 10.05 (+0.86)          Heel (HEEL) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 30000 12.74 (+1.15)          Shiver (SHVER) 80000 62.81 (-1.34)          Shiver (SHVER) 150000 62.81 (-1.34)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 10000 111.54 (+2.51)          Dracula (DRALT) 150000 4.02 (+0.04)          Marc by Sofia (MARCS) 5000 0.83 (+0.05)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 30000 4.75 (+0.54)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 3000 106.96 (-0.12)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 60000 18.23 (+1.56)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 18.23 (+1.56)          Shiver (SHVER) 1000 62.81 (-1.34)          Whistle (WHIST) 20000 6.74 (-0.50)          Marc by Sofia (MARCS) 50000 0.83 (+0.05)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 41 89.73 (+1.81)          Full Phil (FPHIL) 60000 4.58 (+0.80)          Whistle (WHIST) 5000 6.74 (-0.50)