HSX Forum

Movies

Note to new traders on my note to new traders

Posted by: Vashta Nerada (a.k.a H-Mogul) on Jul 26, 16:59 in response to Vashta Nerada's post He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that...

adjust your estimates based on real numbers. Actuals are gold, theoretical numbers are just that theoretical.

Remember your mileage my vary.

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger (DIGER) 100000 76.22 (-1.84)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Forgotten Island (FRGIS) 100000 51.77 (+0.30)          Verity H$25 Put (VERTY.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Verity - Opening Weekend (VERTY.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          The Resurrection of the Christ (RESUR) 26741 185.43 (+0.29)          Digger H$25 Put (DIGER.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.69 (-0.43)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 19.24 (+1.20)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.69 (-0.43)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 150000 46.90 (-0.70)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.69 (-0.43)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 76.22 (-1.84)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 76.22 (-1.84)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 76.22 (-1.84)          Verity H$25 Call (VERTY.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Forgotten Island (FRGIS) 150000 51.77 (+0.30)          Verity H$25 Put (VERTY.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Forgotten Island (FRGIS) 150000 51.77 (+0.30)          Verity - Opening Weekend (VERTY.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 1 72.69 (-0.43)          Digger H$25 Call (DIGER.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger H$25 Put (DIGER.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Digger - Opening Weekend (DIGER.OW) 100000 25.00 (0.00)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Artificial (AIFIC) 50000 21.62 (+0.69)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 4.42 (+0.25)          Copperhead (COPRH) 1 19.24 (+1.20)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Copperhead (COPRH) 30000 19.24 (+1.20)          Seasons (SEASN) 150000 24.71 (+0.04)          Daniel and The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 550 4.90 (-0.39)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 14423 75.61 (-1.14)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 7.23 (-0.07)          Anything But Ghosts (ANYBG) 150000 24.78 (+0.10)          Anything But Ghosts (ANYBG) 150000 24.78 (+0.10)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 10.19 (-0.59)          King Spawn (SPWN2) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          King Spawn (SPWN2) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Jay Baruchel (JBARU) 25000 53.03 (-0.50)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 14 75.61 (-1.14)          King Spawn (SPWN2) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.69 (-0.43)          Chris Hemsworth (CHEMS) 25000 101.11 (+0.66)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 135563 75.61 (-1.14)