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Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens

Posted by: xiayun on Jul 26, 15:39 in response to Antibody's post You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down...

Also without counting midnight, Inception basically dropped only 29%.  Hard to see it will have a over-30% drop next weekend.

 

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





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Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Jane (JANE1) 50000 14.19 (+0.73)          Ronan Boyle and the Bridge of Ri (RBOYL) 1 14.34 (0.00)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 150000 76.58 (+0.58)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 150000 149.01 (+0.73)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 150000 69.50 (+0.55)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 150000 75.96 (-3.77)          Dog Years (DOGYS) 150000 1.69 (-0.31)          Deep Cuts (DPCUT) 50000 21.86 (+0.41)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.37 (+2.57)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 1 42.27 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.37 (+2.57)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 1 41.96 (-0.08)          Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 1 13.23 (-0.02)          Snoop Dogg Biopic (SNOOP) 1 27.52 (-0.24)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.37 (+2.57)          The Purge 6 (PURG6) 1 6.61 (0.00)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 1 11.28 (-0.06)          The Face of Horror (FCOHR) 1 12.92 (+0.02)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.37 (+2.57)          Evel Knievel on Tour (EVKNV) 1 25.10 (+0.03)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 35000 75.96 (-3.77)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 150000 110.37 (+2.57)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 35000 75.96 (-3.77)          Ella McCay (EMCAY) 1 13.28 (+0.52)          Doctor Strange 3 (DRST3) 1 105.30 (+0.33)          Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 1 21.11 (+0.80)          A Place Like Hell (APHEL) 1 5.89 (-0.03)          Tuner (TUNER) 100000 4.87 (-0.06)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 1 8.49 (-0.01)          Tuner (TUNER) 59999 4.87 (-0.06)          10 Lives (10LIV) 1 3.13 (-0.08)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 20.64 (+0.68)          The Wild Robot 2 (TWRB2) 1 42.27 (0.00)          Teen Titans (TEENT) 1 41.96 (-0.08)