HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
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He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a
couple of traders were posting $250 million and $240 million delists with no math.
People knew his base and they could have easily done the 40%, 45% and 50%. reading you quiz of him I did the math in my head ballpark in about 15 seconds for all 3 of those. With a calculator it shouldn't take anybody with a little math skills more then a minute.
To use 24's favourite The Dark Knight it dropped 53%, 43%, and 39% which was basically the last big WOW movie with WOM. It's Weekday drop-offs were 2nd weekend started at 57% M and got better going to Th which was a 49% drop-off. the 3rd weekdays it averaged 41% over the 4 days.
4th weekdays which we don't care about also averages about 40% drop-off.
This is the real wild card, and until tomorrow numbers everybody is just best guessing.
I guess there is AVATR but I'm to lazy to look the numbers up, I'd already looked at Dark Knight previously.
grammar is callling for a $201
I called her to conservative
She said ok here is my less conservative how about 211
my reply was that was probably my worst case
If the Monday numbers crap out tomorrow she might be right.
My point is that I didn't have to do her math. And neither should luksed. If a trader thinks he's wrong he should show his numbers and then you can talk about it.
tomorrow grammar and I are going to have an interesting talk when the monday numbers come out, or tonight if we get some early Monday estimates tonight. alos I think the 2nd weekday drop-offs will be the weakest the 3rd will moderate in favour of better legs.
Note to new traders this is were the money is. If you think a stock is over priced or under priced you get first move and maximize profits as the thundering herd slowly wakes up and takes positions later. We still have 16 days of BO which is basically why most people doing estimates are all over the map.
take a chance and do some math this is what the post adjust is all about.
Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). Jul 26, 14:02
What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Jul 26, 14:12
That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} Jul 26, 14:58
You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Jul 26, 15:08
Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens Jul 26, 15:39
Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Jul 26, 15:45
Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} Jul 26, 18:53
Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Jul 26, 15:46
Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Jul 26, 17:28
I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Jul 26, 15:20
I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Jul 26, 15:53
He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Jul 26, 16:51
Note to new traders on my note to new traders Jul 26, 16:59
Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Jul 26, 17:06
Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} Jul 26, 18:50