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I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm}

Posted by: Antibody on Jul 26, 15:20 in response to Vashta Nerada's post Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other...

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





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Shelter (SELTR) 150000 12.17 (-1.09)          Aaron Pierre (APIER) 25000 110.63 (+0.66)          Home (HOME1) 4 12.25 (+0.01)          Shelter (SELTR) 150000 12.17 (-1.09)          The Housemaid's Secret (HMAI2) 4 79.20 (-0.19)          America Ferrera (AFERR) 25000 120.44 (+13.19)          Scandalous (SCAND) 350 6.56 (-0.01)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 4 24.29 (-0.03)          Hong Chau (HCHAU) 25000 25.54 (+0.25)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 25000 106.54 (-0.57)          Bruce Lee (BRLEE) 180 11.59 (-0.06)          Grendel (GREND) 99 14.42 (-0.10)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 4 39.15 (-0.06)          Andra Day (ADAY) 25000 53.18 (+0.65)          Grendel (GREND) 10 14.42 (-0.10)          Emerald Fennell (EFENN) 25000 66.58 (+0.50)          Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 5.88 (-3.98)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 4 39.15 (-0.06)          District 10 (DIS10) 4 16.26 (+0.04)          Shazad Latif (SLATI) 25000 17.31 (+0.20)          Diamond (DIAMN) 210 8.09 (-0.02)          Whistle (WHIST) 3 6.72 (-0.52)          Wuthering Heights H$45 Put Fri-M (WUTHR.PU) 25000 2.30 (-0.16)          Whistle (WHIST) 3 6.72 (-0.52)          Headhunters (HDHUN) 190 10.47 (0.00)          Wuthering Heights H$45 Call Fri- (WUTHR.CA) 25000 2.43 (+0.21)          Wuthering Heights - Opening Week (WUTHR.OW) 100000 50.77 (+0.90)          Crawl 2 (CRAW2) 180 11.82 (+0.06)          Creed IV (CREE4) 6 31.55 (+0.16)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 88.97 (+1.05)          Assassination (ASSNT) 200 8.06 (+0.03)          Being Mortal (BMRTL) 1500 0.10 (+0.02)          Emerald Fennell (EFENN) 25000 66.58 (+0.50)          Heel (HEEL) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Broadsword (BROSW) 4 55.67 (-0.04)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 4 243.00 (+0.67)          Bunnylovr (BNYLV) 100 0.38 (+0.03)          I Heart Murder (IHMUR) 1450 1.57 (0.00)          Ciaran Hinds (CHIND) 25000 62.50 (+0.82)          Wuthering Heights - Opening Week (WUTHR.OW) 100000 50.77 (+0.90)          Will Ferrell (WFERR) 25000 106.54 (-0.57)          The Last Disturbance Of Madeline (LDOMH) 350 6.44 (+0.06)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 9.02 (-0.11)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 3200 14.29 (-0.06)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 150000 41.18 (+1.31)          Heel (HEEL) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Voltron (VOLTN) 4 23.60 (+0.07)          Wishful Thinking (WSHFT) 150000 3.75 (+0.29)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.42 (+1.75)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 55 12.85 (+0.07)