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Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? {nm}

Posted by: lukesed on Jul 26, 18:50 in response to Antibody's post I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting...

Delist estimates for Inception for a few different scenarios inside (It's a long, maybe a really big one). lukesed Jul 26, 14:02

What about 40% 45% 50%? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 14:12

That seems really pessimistic to me (24.2% drop from sat>sat!), but here goes: 40% - 220M; 45% - 212M; 50% - 203. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 14:58

You pick the most optimistic. The whole weekend was down 32%. 3rd and 4th weekend tend to go down, not up. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:08

Actually film normally holds better on the 3rd weekend and after, until it starts losing screens xiayun Jul 26, 15:39

Looking at similar WOM blockbuster hits, Pirates, Matrix and Sixth Sense dropped off further in its third weekend. Antibody Jul 26, 15:45

Pirates and Matrix had a lower 2nd weekend drop because of midweek openings. {nm} lukesed Jul 26, 18:53

In chat the night before last I was asked for a delist number. I said I'd prefer to have the Monday number but without that it's pretty much Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:43

Maybe not 50%, but I'm just saying 45% is just as likely as 25%. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:46

Let me I revise that to 40%. 32% - his 25% = 8% difference. 32% + 8% difference = 40% that was left out. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:28

Off the top of my head for 50% $202 looking at the other numbers call it 212 and 222. Or you could do i off his first numbers and get 219, Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:14

I'm pointing out that his biased optimism by discounting equally valid scenarios. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:20

I'm saying he showed the math if people want to disagree they can punch in their numbers. It takes less then a minute with a calculator. Tho Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 15:51

I'm saying he left out 40% etc from his post. Did I say his math was wrong? {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 15:53

He doidn't leave anything out of his post. those that disagree can post their own numbers. Where were you a couple of days ago when a Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:51

Note to new traders on my note to new traders Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 16:59

Geez, stop hijacking this thread. I'm off on Saturday. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:06

You know you could have avoided all this if you had spent 3 minutes with a calculator and posted what you asked for. It's not the numbers Vashta Nerada Jul 26, 17:44

The Dark Knight is not a good comparison because it's a sequel with built-in audience and was the biggest opener of all times. {nm} Antibody Jul 26, 17:14

Is it really biased to provide round numbers above and below the only existing data? lukesed Jul 26, 18:50





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The Comebacker (CMBAC) 4000 28.78 (+1.27)          Backrooms (BACRM) 5000 165.55 (+0.50)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 2000 424.80 (+6.74)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 500 424.80 (+6.74)          Tatiana Maslany (TMASL) 25000 11.03 (-0.60)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 25666 10.86 (+0.86)          David Corenswet (DCORE) 25000 162.04 (0.00)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 1 10.86 (+0.86)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 143.42 (+4.69)          Lily Collins (LICOL) 25000 12.82 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 25000 412.79 (+3.50)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 150000 49.93 (+0.72)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          Please (PLESE) 150000 21.69 (-0.13)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 150000 29.27 (-0.42)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          Wicker (WCKER) 150000 5.52 (+0.60)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 150000 2.52 (+0.19)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 150000 22.74 (+0.68)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 1.66 (-0.34)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 28.78 (+1.27)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 143.42 (+4.69)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 11.15 (+1.15)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 301.53 (-1.21)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          Young Washington (YWASH) 150000 32.91 (+2.57)          Maude Apatow (MAPAT) 1000 28.16 (+0.12)          Maude Apatow (MAPAT) 1000 28.16 (+0.12)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Put (MNIO3.PU) 25000 1.63 (-0.37)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 77.31 (+2.31)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 3.02 (+1.02)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 150000 304.59 (-2.68)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 100000 40.71 (+0.65)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 100000 143.42 (+4.69)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.34 (+0.34)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 141 57.66 (-0.22)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 25000 20.56 (+0.58)          Ken Russell's The Devil (KRSTD) 150000 1.85 (-0.05)          Michael $285M Blockbuster Warran (MJACK.BW) 25000 15.96 (+0.28)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 150000 28.78 (+1.27)          Obsession $150M Blockbuster Warr (OBSSN.BW) 25000 12.96 (+0.71)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3.BW) 25000 7.49 (+0.50)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 110000 143.42 (+4.69)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 145000 143.42 (+4.69)          Fortitude (FRTUD) 150000 10.86 (+0.86)          Toy Story 5 H$125 Call (TOYS5.CA) 25000 8.05 (+0.36)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 10000 16.44 (-0.58)          John Turturro (JTURT) 25000 63.04 (-0.75)