HSX Forum

CelebStock and StarBonds

I disagree with that statement, and I think many other large portfolio players would agree.

Posted by: StarBond Fund 15 BUY BONDS (a.k.a StarBondFund) on Oct 19, 14:11 in response to Antibody's post It's not worth holding if they don't have a future adjust.

I will use a concrete example, not meant as a call to action. 

AFERR has been busy on TV for a few years has an active career, not in jail, not in rehab (pregnant?) , just no attachments at this time.  According to imdb, she is in college full time studying international relations and theater.  I guess she will resume her carreer

Some day, maybe in a week, a month, a year, her StarBond gets attached to a project.  Unless her next project is some limited film, I would bet that it will do more than 90K in box, whenever it is released.  So long term, it is a long.  Short term, it may drop, bounce around, etc.  But if anyone wants to tuck it away and forget about it, well it is more likely to adjust higher than the current TAG than lower.  If she never gets another role, well there is always the Bucket List.

Similar statements could be made about an actor whose last movie was over 200M-250M.  Will the next unknown project be as big as that?   In the case of SLABE, holy megahits Batman, he will !

I am not advocating a call to action, just pointing out the missing information and letting the reader make up his or her mind. 

Adjust time is a good time to project the next adjust.  That is why RH has his Post Adjust report and I appreciate the work he does.  Not everything is in there.  No dROI, or relating gross adjust to time held.  So if you see a StarBond adjusting today, and you have to decide to hold, reverse, dump, etc, I am only adding a little more information into the mix.

Lots of thing happen around here.  Movies locked in to release in a month, a year or 2 may not be next.  Attachments and detachments happen all the time.  Projects are killed.  Etc.  All we can do at this point is look at the current filmography, and project based upon that information.

If we were to use your logic, then ALL Starbonds with no attachment, or even a release date,  should be sold/covered.  THAT is not going to happen.  There are too many portfolios with too much cash to spare.




Post Adjust Bond Show For 10/19/10 RazorHawk Oct 19, 11:32

thx again for crunching the numbers {nm} tealfan Oct 19, 11:48

What happens if there are no future attachments...IF and WHEN there is a future adjust???? mrbinns Oct 19, 12:16

Thanks for this although a couple of changes... theun4gven Oct 19, 12:23

Sorry that post should have been below the OP {nm} theun4gven Oct 19, 12:23

It's not worth holding if they don't have a future adjust. {nm} Antibody Oct 19, 12:42

I disagree with that statement, and I think many other large portfolio players would agree. StarBond Fund 15 BUY BONDS Oct 19, 14:11

Congratulations and thanks to mrbinns btw for the star bond fund, cashing out v soon! {nm} RedDex Oct 19, 14:36

There's no ROI if there's no future attachment. Antibody Oct 19, 14:56

I disagree with you... RazorHawk Oct 19, 15:00

This piqued my interest, and I did a little test to see whether bonds are dropping a big movie from their TAG fall in value RogerMore Oct 20, 08:38

Your conclusion could be true for all StarBond w/o scheduled adjust. Traders could be just dumping those StarBonds and moving on. {nm} Antibody Oct 20, 09:58

If that were true though, you'd expect the Starbonds that have a scheduled adjust to fall in price by more than the ones without one. RogerMore Oct 20, 13:23

Probably, I thought you were gonna show that inside your message. Antibody Oct 20, 14:02

I showed it in my first message - bonds dropping a big movie that have an adjust are on average $20.86 below current TAG. RogerMore Oct 20, 14:17

Then isn't the conclusion is that price drop because there is a next adjust, rather than what's falling out of the adjust? {nm} Antibody Oct 20, 14:53

Bonds with a scheduled adjust have dropped $20.86 (on average) Bonds with no scheduled adjust but something wrapped/in production have RogerMore Oct 20, 15:26

RH does note Bonds with something wrapped/in production, so those should be grouped with Bonds with a scheduled adjust. Antibody Oct 20, 15:58

I see another issue of contention - "is RH correct when he says mrbinns is over-investing?". That's the one I'm looking at. {nm} RogerMore Oct 20, 16:22

If nothing else, wish me happy anniversary.....today is exactly 10 years hanging out at HSX mrbinns Oct 21, 11:38

Happy anniversary! {nm} RogerMore Oct 21, 19:31

interesting... RazorHawk Oct 20, 10:40

I'm not arguing with you either, just providing information on a topic that intrigued me. But... RogerMore Oct 20, 13:54

When I have extra cash, (normally have cash problems) I do invest in starbonds with no scheduled adjust when a big movie is to be taken out. {nm} Guillo Oct 20, 12:37

Part of the fun of post-adjust (before the existence of the Post Adjust Bond Show at least)... secretstalker Oct 19, 17:31

Sure, but mrbinns is saying to hold it indefinitely for an adjust that may never come. {nm} Antibody Oct 20, 11:09

If its by the message he replied to you....I did not read "hold it indefinately for all cases". He suggested that sometimes is worthy. Guillo Oct 20, 12:33

Oh, I wouldn't do that... even with the ridiculous amounts of fake cash I have lying around. {nm} secretstalker Oct 20, 18:02

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