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This piqued my interest, and I did a little test to see whether bonds are dropping a big movie from their TAG fall in value

Posted by: RogerMore on Oct 20, 08:38 in response to RazorHawk's post I disagree with you...

I made a list of all the Starbonds that will be dropping a movie priced $190 or more from their TAG.  Then I took out any Starbond on the bucket list (which should be close to TAG), any Starbond that has a big movie as its next scheduled adjust (which should also be close to current TAG) and starbonds that had adjusted in the last 3 months (which might not have had time to swing in price). I also took out JANDR, as DESME's legs have driven up her TAG post-adjust.

The bonds that were left, I divided into two groups - bonds with a scheduled adjust, and bonds without a scheduled adjust.

Here are the bonds with a scheduled adjust: ABAND ASERK BCOOP DSCHW EWOOD GOLDM HHUNT JBELL JCHRI JLITH KKNIG LBIBB RDOWN RPATT RSANT SAGHD.

On average, these bonds are priced $20.86 below their current TAG.  Based on current stock prices, there are about $4.7 million in unrealised gains to be made from investing in these bonds.

Here are the movies that will drop a big movie from their TAG, and do not have a scheduled adjust: CCOLL CCOLU CTHER DOMON FJANS JPECK JPRYC KPENN MCDUN MEFOX MGIBS MKEAT MMYER MNSHY MOTTO NHARR RGERV RLOWE

On average, these starbonds are trading at $21.13 below their TAG.  So even lower than the starbonds that have an expected adjust.

Even if I do a further split between bonds that have a project wrapped and in production, and those that don't, the results don't change much.

Bonds losing a big movie from TAG and with a wrapped/in production project - trading on average $22.13 below TAG.

Bonds losing a big movie from TAG and without a project wrapped or in production: trading on average $20.19 below TAG.

This suggests that traders do note which movie will drop next from the TAG and play accordingly.

Obviously there are still risks involved investing in individual starbonds, but the overall trend is that starbonds that have a big movie coming out of the TAG next will drop in price.

Post Adjust Bond Show For 10/19/10   RazorHawk on Oct 19, 11:32

thx again for crunching the numbers {nm}   tealfan on Oct 19, 11:48

What happens if there are no future attachments...IF and WHEN there is a future adjust????   mrbinns on Oct 19, 12:16

Thanks for this although a couple of changes...   theun4gven on Oct 19, 12:23

Sorry that post should have been below the OP {nm}   theun4gven on Oct 19, 12:23

It's not worth holding if they don't have a future adjust. {nm}   Antibody on Oct 19, 12:42

I disagree with that statement, and I think many other large portfolio players would agree.   StarBond Fund 15 BUY BONDS on Oct 19, 14:11

Congratulations and thanks to mrbinns btw for the star bond fund, cashing out v soon! {nm}   RedDex on Oct 19, 14:36

There's no ROI if there's no future attachment.    Antibody on Oct 19, 14:56

I disagree with you...   RazorHawk on Oct 19, 15:00

This piqued my interest, and I did a little test to see whether bonds are dropping a big movie from their TAG fall in value   RogerMore on Oct 20, 08:38

Your conclusion could be true for all StarBond w/o scheduled adjust. Traders could be just dumping those StarBonds and moving on. {nm}   Antibody on Oct 20, 09:58

If that were true though, you'd expect the Starbonds that have a scheduled adjust to fall in price by more than the ones without one.   RogerMore on Oct 20, 13:23

Probably, I thought you were gonna show that inside your message.   Antibody on Oct 20, 14:02

I showed it in my first message - bonds dropping a big movie that have an adjust are on average $20.86 below current TAG.   RogerMore on Oct 20, 14:17

Then isn't the conclusion is that price drop because there is a next adjust, rather than what's falling out of the adjust? {nm}   Antibody on Oct 20, 14:53

Bonds with a scheduled adjust have dropped $20.86 (on average) Bonds with no scheduled adjust but something wrapped/in production have   RogerMore on Oct 20, 15:26

RH does note Bonds with something wrapped/in production, so those should be grouped with Bonds with a scheduled adjust.   Antibody on Oct 20, 15:58

I see another issue of contention - "is RH correct when he says mrbinns is over-investing?". That's the one I'm looking at. {nm}   RogerMore on Oct 20, 16:22

If nothing else, wish me happy anniversary.....today is exactly 10 years hanging out at HSX   mrbinns on Oct 21, 11:38

Happy anniversary! {nm}   RogerMore on Oct 21, 19:31

interesting...   RazorHawk on Oct 20, 10:40

I'm not arguing with you either, just providing information on a topic that intrigued me. But...   RogerMore on Oct 20, 13:54

When I have extra cash, (normally have cash problems) I do invest in starbonds with no scheduled adjust when a big movie is to be taken out. {nm}   Guillo on Oct 20, 12:37

Part of the fun of post-adjust (before the existence of the Post Adjust Bond Show at least)...   secretstalker on Oct 19, 17:31

Sure, but mrbinns is saying to hold it indefinitely for an adjust that may never come. {nm}   Antibody on Oct 20, 11:09

If its by the message he replied to you....I did not read "hold it indefinately for all cases". He suggested that sometimes is worthy.   Guillo on Oct 20, 12:33

Oh, I wouldn't do that... even with the ridiculous amounts of fake cash I have lying around. {nm}   secretstalker on Oct 20, 18:02





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